{"id":945,"date":"2023-08-01T04:01:53","date_gmt":"2023-08-01T01:01:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/egemhabertv.com\/?p=945"},"modified":"2023-08-01T04:01:53","modified_gmt":"2023-08-01T01:01:53","slug":"emtia-buyume-karamsarligini-birakti-nasil-bir-ekonomi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/egemhabertv.com\/?p=945","title":{"rendered":"Emtia \u2018b\u00fcy\u00fcme karamsarl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131\u2019 b\u0131rakt\u0131 – Nas\u0131l Bir Ekonomi"},"content":{"rendered":"

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EVR\u0130M K\u00dc\u00c7\u00dcK<\/strong><\/p>\n

ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) \u015fahin tutumunu terk edece\u011fi beklentisinin ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme kayg\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 azaltmas\u0131, Ukrayna- Rusya sava\u015f\u0131ndan kaynakl\u0131 jeopolitik riskler, hava s\u0131cakl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n rekor seviyelere ula\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n yarat\u0131\u011f\u0131 arz endi\u015fesi emtia piyasalar\u0131na y\u00f6n veriyor. \u00c7in’den gelen zay\u0131f ekonomik veriler sonras\u0131 \u00fclkede te\u015fviklerin art\u0131r\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 beklentisi de emtia piyasas\u0131n\u0131 olumlu etkiliyor.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

Petrol<\/a> ve metal taraf\u0131nda etkili olan resesyon endi\u015felerinin yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n hafiflemesiyle son 1 ay i\u00e7inde emtia \u00fcr\u00fcnlerini takip eden CRB Endeksi y\u00fczde 8,7, SP GSCI Endeksi y\u00fczde 10,8 ve Londra Metal Endeksi (LME) y\u00fczde 3,97 y\u00fckseldi.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

Reuters taraf\u0131ndan yap\u0131lan y\u0131l\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011fine ili\u015fkin emtia<\/a> teknik analizinde, dolar\u0131n gerileyebilece\u011fi ve bunun emtia fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131mas\u0131 olabilece\u011fi belirtiliyor. Dolar Endeksi\u2019nin 97,03-98,98 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na \u00e7ekilebilece\u011fi tahmin ediliyor. Endeksin sonras\u0131nda 101,41 seviyesine do\u011fru bir s\u0131\u00e7raman\u0131n ard\u0131ndan 96,09 realistik bir tahmin olarak g\u00f6steriliyor. 103,50\u2019nin \u00fczerinde kal\u0131c\u0131l\u0131k sa\u011flanmas\u0131n\u0131n ise ay\u0131 senaryolar\u0131n\u0131n rafa kalmas\u0131na neden olaca\u011f\u0131 belirtiliyor.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

Y\u0131l\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011finde petrol taraf\u0131nda y\u00fckseli\u015fin s\u00fcrece\u011fi tahmin ediliyor. Metal taraf\u0131nda al\u00fcminyum pozitif bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm sunuyor.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte g\u0131da sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn \u00f6nemli hammaddelerinden biri olan palm ya\u011f\u0131 fiyatlar\u0131nda y\u00fckseli\u015f ya\u015fanmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Bu\u011fday g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc, m\u0131s\u0131r, soya, kahve sakin bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm sergilemiyor. Kakao ise y\u00fckseli\u015f beklenen \u00fcr\u00fcnler aras\u0131nda.<\/p>\n

PALM YA\u011eINDA D\u00dc\u015e\u00dc\u015e S\u00dcREB\u0130L\u0130R<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Malezya\u2019da palm ya\u011f\u0131 fiyatlar\u0131 ton ba\u015f\u0131na 4.000 ringite inerek 24 Temmuz\u2019da g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc d\u00f6rt ay\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesinden uzakla\u015ft\u0131. Di\u011fer yemeklik ya\u011f fiyatlar\u0131nda ya\u015fanan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f palm ya\u011f\u0131 fiyat\u0131n\u0131 da a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekti. Ancak \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte fiyat\u0131n Kas\u0131m 2022\u2019deki 4.497 ringit d\u00fczeyine geri d\u00f6nebilece\u011fi tahmin ediliyor. Fiyatlar\u0131n 3.197 ringit deste\u011fi \u00fczerinde kald\u0131k\u00e7a y\u00fckseli\u015f potansiyelini korudu\u011fu belirtiliyor.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

BAKIRDA Y\u00d6N TAY\u0130N\u0130 \u0130\u00c7\u0130N 8.600 DOLAR D\u0130KKATLE \u0130ZLENMEL\u0130<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Bak\u0131r, ge\u00e7en hafta Londra\u2019da ton ba\u015f\u0131na 8.570 dolar, ABD\u2019de pound ba\u015f\u0131na 3.90 dolar ile iki haftan\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesine geldi. Y\u0131l\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011finde y\u00fckseli\u015f i\u00e7in 8.600 \u00f6nemli bir seviye. 8.632 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde fiyatlar\u0131n kalmas\u0131 8.983-9.551 dolar b\u00f6lgesine do\u011fru bir harekete tetikler. Olas\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerde ise 8.065 dolar \u00f6nemli. Buran\u0131n alt\u0131na do\u011fru fiyatlar geri \u00e7ekilirse 6.844 deste\u011finin yeniden test edilmesi beklenebilir. Bu arada Goldman Sachs, \u00fc\u00e7 ayl\u0131k bak\u0131r hedefini ton ba\u015f\u0131na 7.750 dolardan ton ba\u015f\u0131na 9.250 dolara ve alt\u0131 ayl\u0131k hedefi ton ba\u015f\u0131na 9.200 dolardan 9.500 dolara y\u00fckseltti ve yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fleri sat\u0131n almalar\u0131 tavsiyesinde bulundu.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

AL\u00dcM\u0130NYUM 2.455 DOLAR<\/a> HEDEF\u0130NE Y\u00d6NELEB\u0130L\u0130R<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00c7in\u2019de Yunnan b\u00f6lgesindeki elektrik kesintilerinin hafifletilmesinin b\u00f6lgede al\u00fcminyum \u00fcretimini canland\u0131rmas\u0131yla al\u00fcminyum vadeli i\u015flemleri ton ba\u015f\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131k 2.200 dolar seviyesinden i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. \u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrek Reuters teknik analizine g\u00f6re al\u00fcminyum fiyatlar\u0131 2.073 dolar deste\u011finde istikrar kazan\u0131p 2.455 dolara s\u0131\u00e7rama yapabilir. 2.249 dolar\u0131n \u00f6nemi vurgulanan analizde buran\u0131n alt\u0131nda bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendi ba\u015flayabilece\u011fi, \u00fczerinde ise 2.362-2.462 dolar aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fclebilece\u011fi ifade ediliyor.<\/p>\n

Petrolde y\u00fckseli\u015f s\u00fcrecek<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Son 1 ayda Brent petrol\u00fcn fiyat\u0131 y\u00fczde 14 artarak 84.80 dolar\/varil, Amerikan petrol\u00fcn\u00fcn fiyat\u0131 da y\u00fczde 15 artarak 80 dolar\/varil d\u00fczeyine geldi. Teknik analizler e\u011filimin s\u00fcrece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Reuters analizinde Brent\u2019in varilinin Eyl\u00fcl sonuna kadar 83.63-89.28 band\u0131nda hareket edece\u011fi tahmin ediliyor. Bunun i\u00e7in fiyat\u0131n 78.73 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde kalmas\u0131 gerekiyor. Amerikan petrol\u00fcn\u00fcn 75.62 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine k\u0131rm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131 da 80.62-86.11 dolar\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn hale getiriyor.<\/p>\n

\u25a0 BU\u011eDAY VE KAKAO TARIMIN G\u00dc\u00c7L\u00dc CEPHELER\u0130<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Tar\u0131msal emtiada eyl\u00fcl sonuna kadar fiyatlarda en \u00f6nemli fakt\u00f6r dolar\u0131n seyrinin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra hava \u015fartlar\u0131 ve Karadeniz\u2019in arz\u0131.<\/p>\n

\u25cf Bu\u011fday\u0131n eyl\u00fcl sonuna kadar y\u00fckseli\u015f \u00e7izgisinde kalmas\u0131 bekleniyor. ABD\u2019de bu\u011fday vadeli i\u015flemleri, ABD\u2019de daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc arz beklentileriyle 26 Temmuz\u2019da dokundu\u011fu be\u015f ay\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesi olan 7.6 dolardan keskin bir \u015fekilde gerileyerek kile ba\u015f\u0131na 7 dolara do\u011fru geriledi. Ancak teknik analizler, 6.62\u2019nin \u00fczerinde yeniden fiyatlar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7 kazan\u0131p 7.41-8.11 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na gelebilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. 6.28 dolar civar\u0131nda ya\u015fanabilecek a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131mda ise 5.73 dolara do\u011fru gev\u015feme olabilir.<\/p>\n

\u25cf Soya fasulyesi vadeli i\u015flemleri, ABD Orta Bat\u0131\u2019s\u0131ndaki s\u0131cak hava endi\u015felerinden k\u0131sa vadeli rahatlaman\u0131n bir sonucu olarak bir y\u0131l\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesi olan 15.8 dolardan kile ba\u015f\u0131na 15,1 dolara indi. Fiyatlar\u0131n \u00f6nemli bir diren\u00e7 olarak g\u00f6sterilen 16.37 dolar\u0131 a\u015famamas\u0131 sebebiyle kile ba\u015f\u0131na 14.0 dolar deste\u011fine geri gidebilece\u011fi tahminleri yap\u0131l\u0131yor. 14.0-14.43 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ise bir konsolidasyon ya\u015fanabilir.<\/p>\n

\u25cf M\u0131s\u0131r, vadeli i\u015flemleri temmuz ba\u015f\u0131ndaki kile ba\u015f\u0131na 5.80 dolar seviyesinden 5.10 dolara gerileyerek aya veda etti. 2023\u2019\u00fcn ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana fiyatlar y\u00fczde 24.72 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Fiyatlar\u0131n, 7.25 dolar seviyesinden ba\u015flayan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f dalgas\u0131n\u0131n bir aya\u011f\u0131 olarak 4.59-5.01 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na gerilemesi beklenebilir. Fiyatlar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi i\u00e7in \u00f6nce 5.71 ve ard\u0131ndan 5.92 d\u00fczeyinin \u00fczerine gelmesi gerekiyor. Bu seviyelerin a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 fiyatlar\u0131 yeniden 6.23-6.92 dolar band\u0131na yerle\u015ftirebilir.<\/p>\n

\u25cf Kahve fiyatlar\u0131 New York\u2019taki i\u015flemlerde geni\u015f bir alanda hareket edebilir. Arabica kahvenin fiyat\u0131 son 1 ayda y\u00fczde 3.48, son 12 ayda ise y\u00fczde 27.30 geriledi. Son g\u00fcnlerde ise Brezilya\u2019n\u0131n Minas Gerais eyaletindeki a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 ya\u011f\u0131\u015f\u0131n teslimatlar\u0131 geciktirebilece\u011fine y\u00f6nelik endi\u015felerle 6 ay\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesi 1.52 dolar\/ pound seviyesinden y\u00fckseli\u015f ya\u015fan\u0131yor. Brezilya\u2019n\u0131n 2022\/23 mahsul\u00fc kahve ihracat\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 8 d\u00fc\u015fmesi de fiyat\u0131 destekleyebilir. Fiyatlar\u0131n y\u0131l\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011finde 1.53-1.94 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda dalgalanaca\u011f\u0131 tahmin ediliyor. Uzmanlar 2022\u2019de test edilen 2.60 dolar seviyesinden ba\u015flayan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f dalgas\u0131n\u0131n tamamlanm\u0131\u015f olabilece\u011fini ve fiyatlar\u0131n yukar\u0131 do\u011fru hareketlenebilece\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Fakat fiyatlar\u0131n 1.53\u2019\u00fcn alt\u0131nda kal\u0131c\u0131 olmas\u0131 \u00f6nce 1.44 ve burada da tutunamamas\u0131 halinde 1.28 dolara do\u011fru \u00e7ekilmeyi tetikleyebilir.<\/p>\n

\u25cf Kakao vadeli i\u015flemleri, ABD\u2019de Mart 2011\u2019den bu yana ilk kez 3.500 dolar s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131n\u0131 a\u015farak yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc seyrini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar k\u00fcresel arz a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 bekliyor. Beklenti fiyatlar\u0131n bu \u00e7eyrek i\u00e7inde 3.652 dolara dokunaca\u011f\u0131 \u015feklinde. Fiyatlar 3.452 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde kal\u0131rsa teknik analizler 3.652-3.732 dolara \u00e7\u0131k\u0131laca\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. 3.195-3.248\u2019a d\u00f6n\u00fclmesi ise bir d\u00fczeltemeye neden olabilir. Genel e\u011filim ise yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc g\u00f6z\u00fck\u00fcyor. Kakaoda t\u00fcccarlar ve \u00e7ikolata \u00fcreticileri s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 tedarikle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kal\u0131rken, Bat\u0131 Afrika\u2019daki kakao \u00fcretimindeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn de etkisiyle kakao fiyatlar\u0131 artt\u0131. Bat\u0131 Afrika\u2019da son zamanlarda g\u00f6r\u00fclen ve kakao \u00e7ekirdeklerinin karar\u0131p \u00e7\u00fcr\u00fcmesine neden olan siyah bakla hastal\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n yay\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zland\u0131ran \u015fiddetli ya\u011fmur da kakao fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fckselten ba\u015fka bir etken oldu.<\/p>\n

Nikelde yeni fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fleri yolda \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\u25cf Goldman Sachs, arz fazlas\u0131 endi\u015feleri ya\u015fanan nikel piyasas\u0131nda \u2018satma zaman\u0131\u2019 dedi. Amerikan finans<\/a> kurulu\u015funun analistleri bir notta, nikel piyasas\u0131n\u0131n 2023\u2019te 218.000 ton ve 2024\u2019te 306.000 ton fazla vermesini bekledi\u011fini bildirdi. Banka, nikel fi yatlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7 ayl\u0131k d\u00f6nemde ton ba\u015f\u0131na ortalama 19.000 dolar olmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor ve 12 ayl\u0131k d\u00f6nemde fi yatlar\u0131n ton ba\u015f\u0131na ortalama 16.000 tona inece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Londra Metal Borsas\u0131\u2019nda (LME) \u00fc\u00e7 ayl\u0131k nikel ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz haftay\u0131 21 bin 460 dolar seviyesinden kapatt\u0131. Goldman, \u201cLME taraf\u0131ndan onaylanan yeni markalardan borsaya rafine metal teslimat\u0131 ve \u00c7in\u2019den artan net rafine metal ihracat\u0131, t\u00fcm zamanlar\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerine d\u00fc\u015fen rafine metal stoklar\u0131n\u0131n yenilenmesine yol a\u00e7abilir. Nikel arz geli\u015fmelerine kar\u015f\u0131 savunmas\u0131z\u201d ifadelerini kulland\u0131.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

Pamuk fiyat\u0131 10 ay\u0131n zirvesine yak\u0131n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\u25cf Pamuk vadeli i\u015flemleri, ABD’de arz ile ilgili endi\u015felerin etkisiyle 26 Temmuz\u2019da dokundu\u011fu yakla\u015f\u0131k on ay\u0131n zirvesi olan 90,33 sente yak\u0131n hareket ediyor. Son 1 ayda ICE\u2019de fi yatlar y\u00fczde 7\u2019den fazla artarak pound ba\u015f\u0131na 88 sent seviyesine geldi. D\u00fcnyan\u0131n en \u00f6nemli \u00fcreticilerinden ABD\u2019de G\u00fcneydo\u011fu ve Teksas\u2019\u0131n baz\u0131 b\u00f6lgelerinde ko\u015fullar iyile\u015firken baz\u0131lar\u0131nda k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015firken, kurakl\u0131k \u00fclkenin ortas\u0131nda devam ediyor. Bu arada, USDA\u2019dan al\u0131nan veriler, \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen 2023 ABD mahsul\u00fcn\u00fcn 16,5 milyon balyada de\u011fi\u015fmeden kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Arz endi\u015fesine kar\u015f\u0131n zay\u0131flayan talep kazanc\u0131n daha y\u00fcksek olmas\u0131n\u0131 engelliyor. 2023 y\u0131l\u0131 d\u00fcnya genelinde kullan\u0131m\u0131n \u00c7in, T\u00fcrkiye, Banglade\u015f ve Vietnam gibi tekstil \u00fclkelerinde azalmas\u0131yla 500 bin balya geriledi\u011fi belirtiliyor. Yak\u0131nda sona erecek olan 2022 mahsul y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in ABD\u2019nin ihracat beklentisi 100.000 balya, 2023 mahsul\u00fc i\u00e7in ise 250.000 balya azalt\u0131ld\u0131.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

Pirin\u00e7 pazar\u0131nda h\u00fck\u00fcmetler aras\u0131 anla\u015fmalar art\u0131yor\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u25cf Hindistan\u2019\u0131n ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz g\u00fcnlerde basmati olmayan beyaz pirin\u00e7 ihracat\u0131n\u0131 yasaklama karar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda tedarikin daralmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Bundan dolay\u0131 Afrika\u2019dan Asya\u2019ya al\u0131c\u0131lar muhtemelen yeni pirin\u00e7 kaynaklar\u0131 bulmak zorunda kalacak. T\u00fcccarlar ve analistler, yasa\u011f\u0131n d\u00fcnya pazarlar\u0131nda pirin\u00e7 bulunabilirli\u011fini yakla\u015f\u0131k be\u015fte bir oran\u0131nda azaltaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve ithalat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131n arz a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n \u00fcstesinden gelinmesi ve artan fi yatlar\u0131n dengelenmesi i\u00e7in daha fazla h\u00fck\u00fcmetler aras\u0131 anla\u015fmaya y\u00f6nelebilece\u011fini belirtiyor. T\u00fcccarlar, Afrikal\u0131 al\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n pirin\u00e7 sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 i\u00e7in muhtemelen Hindistan h\u00fck\u00fcmetine ba\u015fvuraca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve Endonezya ile Filipinler gibi Asyal\u0131 ithalat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131n b\u00f6lgenin en b\u00fcy\u00fck ihracat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131 Tayland ve Vietnam ile h\u00fck\u00fcmetler aras\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler imzalayabilece\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor.\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

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