faiz<\/a> art\u0131\u015flar\u0131ndan de\u011fil, tedarik zincirindeki darbo\u011fazlar\u0131n gev\u015femesinden kaynakland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnse de, faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n talebe ket vurmas\u0131, Fed ve Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (ECB) gibi merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra bir\u00e7ok uzmana g\u00f6re enflasyondaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ana unsuru. Merkez bankalar\u0131 faiz art\u0131rarak \u00fcr\u00fcn, hizmet ve \u00e7al\u0131\u015fanlara olan talebi azaltarak fiyat ve \u00fccretlerdeki bask\u0131lar\u0131 azaltmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. Ancak mevcut s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcnde bunun sadece bir k\u0131sm\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015fiyor: Fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 yava\u015flasa da, i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 y\u00fckselmiyor. ABD\u2019de enflasyon bir y\u0131l \u00f6nce y\u00fczde 7 d\u00fczeyindeyken, haziran itibariyle y\u00fczde 3\u2019e geriledi. Ancak i\u015fsizlik haziran itibariyle hala y\u00fczde 3,6 d\u00fczeyinde ve bu oran son bir y\u0131lda \u00e7ok de\u011fi\u015fmedi. Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde de benzer bir durum var. Enflasyon haziranda yakla\u015f\u0131k 18 ay\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck d\u00fczeyi olan y\u00fczde 5,5\u2019e geriledi. Ama i\u015fsizlik hala 25 y\u0131ldan fazla bir s\u00fcrenin en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck d\u00fczeylerinde ve istihdam piyasas\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131 seyir devam ediyor. \u00c7o\u011fu ekonomist, enflasyondaki bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 sayesinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnde. JPMorgan Chase CEO\u2019su Jamie Dimon, bir y\u0131l \u00f6nce merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcne ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemde (Haziran 2022) \u201cKendinizi haz\u0131rlasan\u0131z iyi olur. Faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131yla ekonomik bir hortum geliyor\u201d uyar\u0131s\u0131 yapm\u0131\u015f, Fed\u2019in bilan\u00e7osu konusunda \u00e7ok muhafazakar bir tutum izleyece\u011fini s\u00f6ylemi\u015fti. Hedge fon Citadel\u2019in sabit getirilerden sorumlu ekonomik ara\u015ft\u0131rmalar direkt\u00f6r\u00fc Angel Ubide de \u201cEnflasyonun Fed\u2019in talep b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinden ka\u00e7\u0131nmas\u0131 ve enflasyon beklentilerini \u00e7\u0131palamas\u0131 sayesinde d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fc\u201d g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnde. Harvard \u00dcniversitesi\u2019nden ekonomist Karen Dynan da \u201cFed faiz art\u0131rmasayd\u0131 enflasyon \u00e7ok daha y\u00fcksek olurdu ve belki de hala art\u0131yor olurdu\u201d diyor.<\/p>\n\u00c7elikten \u00e7imento ve kimyasalda, fiyatlar aylard\u0131r d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fte<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n\u00c7inli fabrikalardan \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f fiyatlar\u0131, \u00e7elikten \u00e7imento ve kimyasala aylard\u0131r bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendi i\u00e7inde. WSJ\u2019de yer alan habere g\u00f6re \u015feker, yumurta, haz\u0131r giyim ve ev e\u015fyas\u0131 gibi \u00fcr\u00fcnlerde ayl\u0131k bazda d\u00fc\u015fmeye de ba\u015flad\u0131. T\u00fcketici fiyatlar\u0131 y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda s\u0131f\u0131r d\u00fczeyine gelmi\u015f olsa da, \u00fcretici fiyatlar\u0131 2022\u2019nin ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131ndan bu yana d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor. Man\u015fet enflasyon haziranda 28 ay\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck d\u00fczeyi olan s\u0131f\u0131r seviyesine gerilemi\u015f durumda. \u00dcretici fiyatlar\u0131 ise haziran itibariyle y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda y\u00fczde 6\u2019ya yak\u0131n bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f kaydetti.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n
\u25a0 \u0130malat sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde deflasyon riski daha y\u00fcksek<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n\u00c7in\u2019in imalat sekt\u00f6r\u00fc zaten uzmanlara g\u00f6re bir deflasyon s\u00fcrecine girmi\u015f bile olabilir. \u00c7in\u2019in Ulusal \u0130statistik B\u00fcrosu\u2019ndan temmuz ba\u015f\u0131nda a\u00e7\u0131klanan verilere g\u00f6re fabrika \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f fiyatlar\u0131nda yedi y\u0131ldan fazla bir s\u00fcrenin en sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Bu da hem \u00c7in\u2019de pandemi karantinalar\u0131n\u0131n b\u0131rak\u0131lmas\u0131 sonras\u0131 iyile\u015fmenin beklenenden daha yava\u015f ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesinden ve hem de Bat\u0131\u2019daki faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n t\u00fcketici harcamalar\u0131n\u0131 olumsuz etkilemesinden kaynaklan\u0131yor.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n
\u25a0 \u00c7in Merkez Bankas\u0131 \u201cdeflasyon riski yok\u201d diyor<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\nK\u00fcresel ekonominin Bat\u0131 yakas\u0131ndan \u00c7in\u2019de deflasyon riski oldu\u011funa dair mesajlar ve de\u011ferlendirmeler gelse de, \u00fclkenin para politikalar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00f6neten \u00c7in Merkez Bankas\u0131 (PBOC) deflasyon riski oldu\u011funa dair iddialar\u0131 reddediyor. Temmuzun ilk haftas\u0131nda a\u00e7\u0131klanan haziran t\u00fcketici fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckselmemi\u015f olmas\u0131 ve ihracattaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan PBOC Ba\u015fkan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 Liu Guoqiang, \u201c\u00c7in ekonomisi deflasyonda de\u011fil ve bu y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda da deflasyon i\u015faretleri g\u00f6stermeyecek\u201d ifadelerini kullanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. \u00c7in\u2019de haziran ay\u0131nda T\u00dcFE ayl\u0131k bazda y\u00fczde 0,2 d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015f, bu da Pekin\u2019in \u00fclkenin COVID-19 sonras\u0131 beklentilerden yava\u015f seyreden iyile\u015fmesini desteklemek i\u00e7in te\u015fvik s\u00f6z\u00fc vermesiyle sonu\u00e7lanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Ayr\u0131ca d\u00fcn yap\u0131lan a\u00e7\u0131klamada \u00c7in\u2019in planlama otoritesi hanehalk\u0131 t\u00fcketiminin art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 i\u00e7in yeni \u00f6nlemler getireceklerini duyurdu. \u00c7in\u2019in planlama otoritesinin direkt\u00f6r yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 Li Chunlin, pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamada \u201c\u00c7in\u2019in hanehalk\u0131 t\u00fcketimini art\u0131rmak i\u00e7in uzun vadeli mekanizmalar\u0131 iyile\u015ftirece\u011fini\u201d s\u00f6yledi. PBOC, Fed ve ECB taraf\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fc devam ederken, haziran ay\u0131nda i\u00e7 talebi desteklemek i\u00e7in ticari krediler ve konut kredilerinde kullan\u0131lan faizleri d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Harcamalar ve \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7ok daha zay\u0131f seyretti\u011fi \u00fclkede para politikalar\u0131 geli\u015fmi\u015f d\u00fcnyadaki s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcyle ters bir trend i\u00e7ine girmi\u015f durumda.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n
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