{"id":8874,"date":"2023-12-21T09:51:33","date_gmt":"2023-12-21T06:51:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/egemhabertv.com\/?p=8874"},"modified":"2023-12-21T09:51:33","modified_gmt":"2023-12-21T06:51:33","slug":"merkez-bankasindan-yilin-son-faiz-karari-bugun-belli-olacak","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/egemhabertv.com\/?p=8874","title":{"rendered":"Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019ndan Y\u0131l\u0131n Son Faiz Karar\u0131 Bug\u00fcn Belli Olacak!"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\n \"20224
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\n 20224 T\u00dcVT\u00dcRK Ara\u00e7 Muayene Zaml\u0131 Fiyatlar\u0131 Ne Kadar Oldu?<\/span>
\n <\/span>
\n <\/a>\n <\/div>\n

Aral\u0131k toplant\u0131s\u0131, \u00f6nceki toplant\u0131lardan farkl\u0131 bir \u00f6neme sahip. Bu toplant\u0131da faiz art\u0131\u015f s\u00fcrecinin sona erebilece\u011fi belirtiliyor. Kas\u0131m ay\u0131 Para Politikas\u0131 Toplant\u0131s\u0131 metninde, “Dezenflasyonun tesisi i\u00e7in gerekli parasal s\u0131k\u0131l\u0131k d\u00fczeyine \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde yakla\u015f\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 de\u011ferlendirilmi\u015ftir” ifadesi kullan\u0131ld\u0131. Yani faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n, enflasyondaki gerileme i\u00e7in yeterli g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc bir noktaya gelinmi\u015f durumda. Metinde, “Parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma h\u0131z\u0131 yava\u015flat\u0131lacak ve s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma ad\u0131mlar\u0131 k\u0131sa bir zaman diliminde tamamlanacakt\u0131r.” denilmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n

Ekonomistler aras\u0131nda ise “k\u0131sa zaman dilimi” konusunda iki ayr\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f bulunuyor. Bir k\u0131sm\u0131 faizin Aral\u0131k toplant\u0131s\u0131nda son kez art\u0131r\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor, di\u011fer k\u0131s\u0131m ise Aral\u0131k’\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Ocak’taki toplant\u0131da da faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n devam edece\u011fine inan\u0131yor. Merkez Bankas\u0131’n\u0131n bu kritik karar\u0131, ekonomi takip\u00e7ileri ve yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar aras\u0131nda merakla bekleniyor.<\/p>\n

Piyasa Kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 Anketi faiz konusunda ortak g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ortaya koyuyor. Kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n bir hafta vadeli repo ihale faiz oran\u0131 beklentisi y\u0131l sonu i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 42,50. Ancak 3 ay sonras\u0131 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 43,76. Anket tahmin ortalamas\u0131n\u0131 yans\u0131tt\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f farkl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n

ABD’li yat\u0131r\u0131m bankas\u0131 Morgan Stanley ge\u00e7en hafta faizde zirvenin y\u00fczde 45 ile Ocak’ta g\u00f6r\u00fclece\u011fi tahminini payla\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n

Faizde zirve noktan\u0131n nerede g\u00f6r\u00fclece\u011fi piyasan\u0131n da odaklanaca\u011f\u0131 ana konu. Saat 14’te yay\u0131mlanacak PPK metni ile faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na Ocak’ta devam edilip edilmeyece\u011fi de b\u00fcy\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kla \u00f6\u011frenilecek. Ekonomistlere g\u00f6re ondan sonra as\u0131l ba\u015fl\u0131k “faizin ne kadar y\u00fcksek kalaca\u011f\u0131” olacak. Bu konuda genel tahminler y\u0131l\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011finde faiz indirimine i\u015faret ediyor. JP Morgan, Citi, UBS, Goldman Sachs gibi yat\u0131r\u0131m bankalar\u0131 yay\u0131mlad\u0131klar\u0131 raporlarda bu tahminlerini payla\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Piyasa kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 anketinde de 12 ay sonras\u0131 i\u00e7in (Aral\u0131k 2024) faiz tahmini y\u00fczde 36,65 d\u00fczeyinde. \u0130ndirim tahminindeki ana motivasyon enflasyonun zirveyi May\u0131s ay\u0131nda g\u00f6rece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fc. Merkez Bankas\u0131 Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Hafize Gaye Erkan, Y\u0131l\u0131n 3. Enflasyon Raporu sunumunda “Enflasyonun May\u0131s 2024’te y\u00fczde 70-75 aras\u0131nda zirveyi g\u00f6rmesini bekliyoruz” demi\u015fti. Yani enflasyon d\u00fc\u015fmeye ba\u015flad\u0131k\u00e7a faizler de ona paralel a\u015fa\u011f\u0131ya \u00e7ekilecek.<\/p>\n

KRED\u0130 KARTI FA\u0130Z\u0130 HEMEN DE\u011e\u0130\u015eM\u0130YOR<\/p>\n

Merkez Bankas\u0131 faizi art\u0131rsa da bu kredi kart\u0131 ve \u00fcye i\u015f yeri azami komisyon oranlar\u0131na ilk etapta yans\u0131t\u0131lmayacak. Kredi kart\u0131 faizlerinde belirleyici olan referans faiz oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 3,16’da kalacak.. Politika faizi y\u00fczde 42,5 olmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131n kredi kart\u0131 faizi i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 35 rakam\u0131 baz al\u0131nacak. Ge\u00e7en ayki faiz karar\u0131 sonras\u0131 bu y\u00f6nde bir karar al\u0131nm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu karar yeni y\u0131la kadar ge\u00e7erli olacak. D\u00fczenlemenin uzat\u0131l\u0131p uzat\u0131lmayaca\u011f\u0131 ise \u015fu an i\u00e7in belirsiz. Mevcut uygulamalar gere\u011fi bankalar kredi kart\u0131 faizlerini 1 ay sonra g\u00fcncelleyebiliyor. Y\u0131l bitimine de 10 g\u00fcn kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in faizler en erken 40 g\u00fcn sonra de\u011fi\u015fecek.<\/p>\n

KKM FA\u0130Z\u0130 NE OLACAK?<\/p>\n

Merkez Bankas\u0131 Aral\u0131k ay\u0131 ba\u015f\u0131nda d\u00f6viz d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcml\u00fc kur korumal\u0131 mevduat hesaplar\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir karar ald\u0131. Normal \u015fartlarda d\u00f6viz KKM’sinden d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015flere bankalar politika faizinin alt\u0131nda faiz veremiyordu. Politika faizi y\u00fczde 40 oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in, bankalar d\u00f6viz KKM’sine y\u0131ll\u0131k en az y\u00fczde 40 faiz \u00f6demek zorundayd\u0131. Resmi Gazete’de yay\u0131mlanan tebli\u011fle alt faiz oran\u0131 politika faizinin y\u00fczde 85 olarak belirlendi. Yani d\u00f6viz KKM’sine verilebilecek en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz oran\u0131 y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fczde 34’e \u00e7ekildi. Merkez, s\u00fcrpriz bir karar almaz ve faizi y\u00fczde 42,5’e \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131rsa, d\u00f6viz KKM’sinde de en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 36,1’e y\u00fckselecek. Merkez Bankas\u0131’n\u0131n 2024 y\u0131l\u0131 enflasyon tahmini y\u00fczde 36. Yani d\u00f6viz d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcml\u00fc KKM’de y\u0131ll\u0131k faiz oran\u0131 k\u0131l pay\u0131 ile enflasyon tahmininin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kacak.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

20224 T\u00dcVT\u00dcRK Ara\u00e7 Muayene Zaml\u0131 Fiyatlar\u0131 Ne Kadar Oldu? Aral\u0131k toplant\u0131s\u0131, \u00f6nceki toplant\u0131lardan farkl\u0131 bir<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":8875,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[12],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8874","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-saglik"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/egemhabertv.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8874","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/egemhabertv.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/egemhabertv.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/egemhabertv.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/egemhabertv.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=8874"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/egemhabertv.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8874\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/egemhabertv.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/8875"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/egemhabertv.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=8874"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/egemhabertv.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=8874"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/egemhabertv.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=8874"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}