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Normal bir zamanda dahi gelecekle ilgili tahmin yapmak kolay de\u011filken, i\u00e7inde bulundu\u011fumuz b\u00f6ylesine kaotik bir d\u00f6nemde gelece\u011fe y\u00f6nelik tahminde bulunmak \u00e7ok daha zor. Dikkat edin, teknolojideki muazzam ilerlemelere ra\u011fmen, hava tahminleri bile en fazla be\u015f g\u00fcne y\u00f6neliktir. Bu nedenle \u00f6zellikle makro-politik ve makro-ekonomik belirsizliklerin bu denli artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir d\u00f6nemde, gelece\u011fe dair pozitif ya da negatif b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclerde bulunmay\u0131 rasyonel bulmuyorum. Bana \u00f6yle geliyor ki ben bu yaz\u0131y\u0131 kaleme al\u0131p gazetede yay\u0131nlanana kadar ge\u00e7en s\u00fcrede bile bir\u00e7ok bilgi ge\u00e7erlili\u011fini yitirmi\u015f olabilir. Rusya- Ukrayna sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n ve \u00c7in-Tayvan gerginli\u011finin yan\u0131na Avrupa\u2019daki S\u0131rbistan-Kosova gerginli\u011fi eklendi derken \u0130srail-Hamas sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131 da g\u00f6rd\u00fck. Jeopolitik riskler ve geli\u015fmelerin seyri makro-ekonomik s\u00fcre\u00e7leri de derinden etkileyece\u011fe benziyor.<\/p>\n
Euro B\u00f6lgesi’nde b\u00fcy\u00fcme sorunu hala devam ediyor<\/strong><\/p>\n \u00d6ncelikle gelin biraz d\u00fcnyaya bakal\u0131m. K\u00fcresel enflasyon endeksinin yava\u015f da olsa etkisini azaltt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Faizlerin belli bir s\u00fcre daha inmeyece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fclse de enflasyon konusunda geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkeler bug\u00fcn i\u00e7in temkinli bir iyimserlik i\u00e7inde. Bir aksilik olmazsa y\u0131lsonunda enflasyonun k\u00fcreselde de gerileyece\u011fi g\u00f6z\u00fck\u00fcyor. <\/p>\n Hat\u0131rlayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131z \u00fczere yap\u0131lan son iki toplant\u0131da FED faiz<\/a> art\u0131rmad\u0131 ve bu karar\u0131 oy birli\u011fi ile ald\u0131. Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde enflasyon A\u011fustos ay\u0131nda %5,2 d\u00fczeyinden Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda %4,3\u2019e ve Ekim ay\u0131nda %2,9\u2019a geriledi ve yakla\u015f\u0131k 2 y\u0131l\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine geldi. Enflasyondaki olumlu geli\u015fmelere ra\u011fmen, Euro B\u00f6lgesi’nde b\u00fcy\u00fcme sorunu hala devam ediyor. Uzun s\u00fcredir devam eden durgunluk ve \u00fcretimin daralmas\u0131 sebebiyle b\u00fcy\u00fcme olumsuz etkileniyor. \u0130hracatta ana pazar\u0131m\u0131z Almanya\u2019da Ekim ay\u0131 enflasyonu ayl\u0131k bazda de\u011fi\u015fim g\u00f6zlenmezken y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %3,8\u2019e gerileyerek A\u011fustos 2021\u2019den bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyeyi g\u00f6rd\u00fc. AB Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n 2025 enflasyon hedefi olan %2 enflasyon oran\u0131n hala \u00e7ok \u00fcst\u00fcnde olsa da bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler \u00f6nemliydi. <\/p>\n K\u00fcresel PMI endeksine bakacak olursak Ekim\u2019de 0,4 puan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcle 48.9 oldu. D\u00fcnya imalat sanayi \u00fcretiminde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimi Ekim\u2019de be\u015finci aya ula\u015ft\u0131. 2023 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011finde 49,3 olan endeks y\u0131l\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011finde 48.9\u2019a geriledi.<\/p>\n Asya K\u0131tas\u0131\u2019nda dengeler bozuluyor, ABD ve Avrupa \u00c7in ve Rusya\u2019ya alternatif aray\u0131\u015f\u0131nda<\/strong><\/p>\n PMI endekslerinden ba\u015flayacak olursak; Asya-Pasifik\u2019te ASEAN B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nin iki y\u0131l\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ikinci kez darald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fck. Bu b\u00f6lgede kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm s\u00fcrerken d\u00fcnya genelinden pozitif ayr\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. D\u00fcnyan\u0131n en y\u00fcksek imalat PMI\u2019\u0131 55,5 ile yine Hindistan\u2019da \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcld\u00fc. Fakat en h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcyen \u00fclke olan Hindistan\u2019da ivme kayb\u0131 ya\u015fand\u0131. Hindistan\u2019la birlikte Rusya, Kazakistan, Endonezya, Filipinler, e\u015fik de\u011fer 50\u2019nin \u00fcst\u00fcnde seyrederken Vietnam 49,6\u2019ya, \u00c7in ise 49,5\u2019e geriledi. Hindistan \u201cMake in India\u2019\u2019 ile d\u00fcnyan\u0131n \u00fcretim \u00fcss\u00fc olmak istiyor Ba\u015fkan Modi\u2019nin Hindistan\u2019\u0131 d\u00fcnyan\u0131n \u00fcretim merkezi yapma hedefini tekrar ediyor. \u201cMake in India\u2019\u2019 slogan\u0131yla Hindistan h\u00fck\u00fcmeti \u00fclkede \u00fcretimi ve \u00fcretilen \u00fcr\u00fcnlerin geli\u015ftirmesini te\u015fvik etmek ve yeni \u015firketler yaratmak i\u00e7in, \u00fcretime y\u00f6nelik \u00f6zel yat\u0131r\u0131mlara te\u015fvikler uyguluyor. Bu sayede de Apple ve Foxconn gibi b\u00fcy\u00fck ve \u00e7ok uluslu \u015firketleri \u00fclkesine \u00e7ekmeyi ba\u015fard\u0131.<\/p>\n \u00c7in\u2019deki k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclme ya da sorunlar bize yarar m\u0131?<\/strong><\/p>\n \u00c7in\u2019de i\u015flerin iyi gitmedi\u011fini biliyoruz. \u00c7in ihracat\u0131 pandeminin akut d\u00f6neminden bu yana en sert daralmay\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fc. \u00c7in 2023 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ilk alt\u0131 ay\u0131nda ABD\u2019ye olan ihracat\u0131 %27, AB\u2019ne olan ihracat\u0131 %20 azald\u0131. Son y\u0131llarda \u00f6nem verdi\u011fi i\u00e7 t\u00fcketimde de bu y\u0131l canl\u0131l\u0131k yok. Biz bunlar\u0131n sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 ihracat pazarlar\u0131nda da g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. \u00c7inliler bu y\u0131l fiyatlarda \u00e7ok agresif.<\/p>\n \u00c7in\u2019de imalat PMI de\u011feri Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda 6 ay sonra pozitife d\u00f6nd\u00fckten sonra Ekim ay\u0131nda tekrar e\u015fik de\u011fer 50\u2019nin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Ulusal \u0130statistik B\u00fcrosu verilerine g\u00f6re A\u011fustos ay\u0131nda 49,7 olan imalat PMI, Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda 50,2 puana y\u00fckselirken, Ekim ay\u0131nda 49,5\u2019e geriledi.<\/p>\n \u00d6te yandan IMF, son yay\u0131nlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 raporda \u00c7in’e ili\u015fkin b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmini 2023 i\u00e7in %5,2\u2019den %5\u2019e, 2024 i\u00e7in ise y\u00fczde 4,5\u2019ten y\u00fczde 4,2\u2019ye \u00e7ekti.<\/p>\n \u201c\u00c7in\u2019deki k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclme ya da sorunlar bize yarar\u2019\u2019 yorumlar\u0131na da mesafeli bak\u0131yorum. Hali haz\u0131rda \u00c7in d\u00fcnya ekonomisinin ve k\u00fcresel ticaretin kataliz\u00f6r\u00fc durumunda. \u00c7in\u2019in d\u00fcnyadaki b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin yakla\u015f\u0131k %40\u2019n\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi\u011fini g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcnde bulundurursak k\u00fcresel ticaret ve ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmede d\u00fcnyay\u0131 nas\u0131l etkiledi\u011fini daha iyi anlar\u0131z. \u00c7in\u2019deki her t\u00fcrl\u00fc yava\u015flama d\u00fcnyada da etkisini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki s\u00fcre\u00e7te \u00c7in\u2019in sorunlar\u0131na bakacak olursak; yava\u015f b\u00fcy\u00fcme, y\u00fcksek gen\u00e7 i\u015fsizlik, emlak piyasalar\u0131ndaki belirsizlik ve Bat\u0131 ile ili\u015fkiler olacak.<\/p>\n \u00c7in\u2019in Ortado\u011fu\u2019da a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131yor Yine Asya oyunlar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde \u00c7in ile Suudi Arabistan aras\u0131nda turizm<\/a> anla\u015fmas\u0131 imzaland\u0131. Bu anla\u015fmaya g\u00f6re 2030 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar \u00c7in’den 4 milyonun \u00fczerinde turistin Suudi Arabistan’a gitmesini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Bunun yan\u0131nda bu ay ikincisi kez \u00c7in ve Sudi Arabistan ortak deniz tatbikat\u0131 yapacak. May\u0131s ay\u0131nda Kuveyt ve Birle\u015fik Arap Emirlikleri\u2019nin \u015eangay \u0130\u015f birli\u011fi \u00d6rg\u00fct\u00fc’ne “diyalog orta\u011f\u0131” olarak dahil edilmesinin ard\u0131ndan, G. Afrika\u2019da d\u00fczenlenen BRICS zirvesinde \u00f6zellikle \u00c7in’in iste\u011fiyle Suudi Arabistan, \u0130ran, Birle\u015fik Arap Emirlikleri ve M\u0131s\u0131r BRICS\u2019e \u00fcye yap\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n \u00c7in Devlet Ba\u015fkan\u0131 \u015ei’nin ge\u00e7en y\u0131l yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u0130ran ziyaretinde 25 milyar dolarl\u0131k, i\u00e7inde savunma kontratlar\u0131n\u0131n da oldu\u011fu, bir anla\u015fmalar dizisi imzalanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n Avrupa\u2019da k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclme 2024\u2019te de devam edecek<\/strong><\/p>\n IMF yay\u0131nlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 son Global Ekonomik G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm Raporu\u2019nda, Euro B\u00f6lgesi i\u00e7in 2023 b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini %0,9\u2019dan %0,7\u2019ye ve 2024 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in de %1,5\u2019den %1,2\u2019ye d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc. Ayn\u0131 raporda Almanya’n\u0131n bu y\u0131l k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclen tek geli\u015fmi\u015f ekonomi olaca\u011f\u0131 belirtiliyor. Raporda Almanya ekonomisinin 2023 y\u0131l\u0131nda % 0,5 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclece\u011fi, 2024 y\u0131l\u0131nda ise %0,9 b\u00fcy\u00fcyece\u011fi tahmin ediliyor. Ekim ay\u0131nda a\u00e7\u0131klanan PMI verilerine g\u00f6re; Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde imalat PMI\u2019\u0131 0,3 puan azalarak 43,1\u2019e geriledi. Euro B\u00f6lgesi 16 ayd\u0131r 50 puan olan e\u015fik seviyesinin alt\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fiyor. Yunanistan hari\u00e7 t\u00fcm Avrupa b\u00f6lgesi e\u015fik de\u011fer 50\u2019nin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131.<\/p>\n Balkan \u00fclkelerinden lojistik<\/a>, enerji ve haberle\u015fme altyap\u0131 projelerinde i\u015fbirli\u011fi G\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fcz \u00fczere gerek k\u00fcresel arenada gerekse b\u00f6lgeselde lojistik konusu d\u00fcnyan\u0131n g\u00fcndeminde. Bu konuyu ge\u00e7en haftaki yaz\u0131mda ele ald\u0131\u011f\u0131m i\u00e7in s\u00f6z\u00fc \u00e7ok uzatmayaca\u011f\u0131m.<\/p>\n \u00c7in Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n ortas\u0131na \u00fcs kurdu<\/strong><\/p>\n Bu y\u0131l daralan ekonomisi, d\u00fc\u015fen PMI endeksleri, resesyon haberlerine ra\u011fmen Avrupa bizim i\u00e7in hala en \u00f6nemli pazar konumunda. A\u00e7\u0131klanan Ekim ay\u0131 ihracat rakamlar\u0131yla bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131mda ilk \u00fc\u00e7\u00e7eyrekte Avrupa B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 da olsa b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fcyorum. Euro<\/a> B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nin d\u00fcnyadan yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ithalat\u0131n %13,6 darald\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir d\u00f6nemde bizim bu b\u00f6lgeye ihracat\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n %1 artmas\u0131 bence \u00f6nemli.<\/p>\n Avrupa i\u00e7in en k\u00f6t\u00fc geride mi kald\u0131 bunu \u00f6ng\u00f6rmek \u00e7ok zor. Ticaret yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z muhataplar\u0131m\u0131zda temkinli bir iyimserlik oldu\u011funu g\u00f6rsek de b\u00f6lgede gerek siyasi gerekse ekonomik problemler devam ediyor. Bir yandan Rusya-Ukrayna sava\u015f\u0131 derken, S\u0131rbistan-Kosova gerginli\u011fi de \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki s\u00fcre\u00e7te b\u00f6lge i\u00e7in bir sorun. Bunun yan\u0131nda Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n \u201c\u00c7in riskinden ar\u0131nma\u2019\u2019y\u0131 konu\u015ftu\u011fu bir d\u00f6nemde \u00c7in\u2019in Avrupa k\u0131tas\u0131n\u0131n ortas\u0131ndaki S\u0131rbistan\u2019la serbest ticaret anla\u015fmas\u0131 imzalamas\u0131 dikkat \u00e7eken di\u011fer bir konuydu.<\/p>\n Ortado\u011fu\u2019da talep canl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 koruyor<\/strong><\/p>\n 2023 y\u0131l\u0131nda yay\u0131nlanan ihracat iklim endekslerinde de g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz \u00fczere bu y\u0131l ihracat\u0131m\u0131zda Orta Do\u011fu b\u00f6lgesinin verdi\u011fi katk\u0131y\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Son a\u00e7\u0131klanan Ekim ay\u0131 ihracat iklim endeksinde de Ortado\u011fu\u2019da talebin canl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 korudu\u011funu g\u00f6rd\u00fck.<\/p>\n D\u00fcnyada geli\u015fen siyasi ili\u015fkilerin ticarete, geli\u015fen ticari ili\u015fkilerin siyasete etkilerini hep tecr\u00fcbe ettik. Siyasi ili\u015fkilerimizin normalle\u015fti\u011fi Birle\u015fik Arap Emirlikleri ve Sudi Arabistan\u2019\u0131n 2023 y\u0131l\u0131nda ihracat\u0131m\u0131za kataliz\u00f6r etkisi yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fck. BAE\u2019ne ihracat\u0131m\u0131z ilk 9 ayda %36,5 ve Suudi Arabistan\u2019a ilk 9 ayda %284 artt\u0131. Yine son aylarda siyasi ili\u015fkilerimizin geli\u015fmeye ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 M\u0131s\u0131r\u2019la olan ihracat\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n A\u011fustos ay\u0131nda yakla\u015f\u0131k %21, Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de %18 artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. <\/p>\n Tabi \u015fu anda bu b\u00f6lge i\u00e7in ne s\u00f6ylesek bir \u015fey ifade etmeyecek. \u0130srail-Hamas sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcreci, s\u00f6ylenildi\u011fi gibi b\u00f6lgedeki ba\u015fka \u00fclkelere s\u0131\u00e7ray\u0131p s\u0131\u00e7ramayaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde belirleyici olacak.<\/p>\n Afrika k\u00fcresel g\u00fc\u00e7lerin ilgilisini \u00e7ekmeye devam ediyor<\/strong> \u00d6zellikle G. Afrika, Gana, Zambiya, Kenya, Etiyopya, M\u0131s\u0131r, Cibuti, Tanzanya, Zimbabve ku\u015fak yol projesinde \u00f6nemli bir yere sahip. Fakat \u00f6zellikle Bat\u0131 ve d\u00fcnya kamuoyu \u00c7in\u2019in Afrika ve Asya\u2019da bor\u00e7land\u0131rma stratejisiyle limanlara, havaalanlar\u0131na vs. uzun s\u00fcreli \u2018\u2019el koymas\u0131\u2019\u2019 nedeniyle mesafeli yakla\u015f\u0131yor. Do\u011fruluk pay\u0131 olsa da Bat\u0131\u2019n\u0131n duydu\u011fu as\u0131l kayg\u0131 \u00c7in\u2019in d\u00fcnyadaki hegemonyas\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmesi. Amerika K\u0131tas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n hala en b\u00fcy\u00fck tedarik\u00e7isi \u00c7in<\/strong><\/p>\n Amerika K\u0131tas\u0131\u2019nda \u00fcretim PMI\u2019\u0131 Meksika ve ABD de e\u015fik de\u011fer 50\u2019nin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Kanada May\u0131s 2020\u2019den bu yana en derin daralmay\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, Brezilya iki ayd\u0131r daralmaya devam etti. IMF “Global Ekonomik G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm Raporu”nda ABD\u2019nin 2023 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmini Temmuz ay\u0131ndaki % 1,8\u2019den %2,1\u2019e, gelecek y\u0131l i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmini ise %1\u2019den %1,5\u2019e y\u00fckseltildi.<\/p>\n ABD\u2019de \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki sene se\u00e7im senesi, se\u00e7im \u00f6ncesi orada da tabiri caizse pop\u00fclist baz\u0131 ekonomik politikalar uygulanabilir. Tabi ki bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te enflasyonun durumu da \u00f6nemli olacakt\u0131r. \u00c7in\u2019in ilk 6 ayda ABD\u2019ye ihracat\u0131 y\u00fczde yirmi yedi azald\u0131. Fakat hala \u00c7in\u2019in domine etti\u011fi bir pazar. Bunun yan\u0131nda Hindistan ve Vietnam\u2019dan ithalat 2022 y\u0131l\u0131nda rekor seviyelere ula\u015ft\u0131. T\u00fcrkiye \u00f6l\u00e7ek olarak bu t\u00fcketimi kar\u015f\u0131layamasa da bu pazarda da hala \u00f6nemli f\u0131rsatlar\u0131n oldu\u011fu kesin. 2024\u2019de 2023 gibi flu alanlar yo\u011fun olacak Bunun yan\u0131nda IMF de son yay\u0131nlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 “Global Ekonomik G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm Raporu”nda 2023 tahminini %3\u2019te b\u0131rakarak de\u011fi\u015ftirmezken, 2024 k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini y\u00fczde 3’ten y\u00fczde 2,9’a d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc.
Asya\u2019y\u0131 incelerken perdenin arkas\u0131na da bakmakta fayda var. Asya\u2019da Bat\u0131 \u00c7in\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 \u00f6zellikle Hindistan ve Vietnam\u2019\u0131 destekleyerek bir denge politikas\u0131 olu\u015fturmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. ABD Hazine Bakan\u0131 Yellen\u2019in Hindistan ziyaretinde verdi\u011fi mesaj \u00e7ok netti. Bu ziyarette Yellen, ABD\u2019nin tedarik zincirini yak\u0131n ili\u015fkide oldu\u011fu \u00fclkeler \u00fczerinden kurgulamak olarak tan\u0131mlad\u0131klar\u0131 \u201cdost \u00fclkelerden tedarik\u2019\u2019 politikas\u0131 kapsam\u0131nda Hindistan\u2019\u0131 ABD i\u00e7in vazge\u00e7ilmez ortak olarak g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00f6yledi.
Yellen\u2019in akabinde yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 Vietnam ziyaretinde de ABD\u2019nin Vietnam\u2019la ekonomik ili\u015fkilerini geli\u015ftirmeyi \u00f6ncelik edindiklerini dile getirdi. Bu a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 duydu\u011funuzda \u201cklasik politik s\u00f6ylem\u2019\u2019 olarak de\u011ferlendirebilirsiniz. Fakat ABD\u2019nin gerek Hindistan gerekse Vietnam i\u00e7in en b\u00fcy\u00fck pazar durumuna geldi\u011fini ayr\u0131ca belirtmek isterim. Bunun yan\u0131nda \u00c7in\u2019in ABD\u2019ye olan ihracat\u0131n\u0131n bu y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda %27 azald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcnde bulundurmak gerekir.
Benim dar penceremden g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm; \u00f6ncelikle \u00c7in \u00fcretimde \u00e7ok g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc. Daha \u00f6nemlisi \u00fcretim ve ticaret k\u00fclt\u00fcr\u00fc \u00fclkede her g\u00fcn geli\u015fiyor. Uluslararas\u0131 ticarette yol alan \u00c7inliler s\u00fcre\u00e7 i\u00e7inde kendilerini gerek \u00fcretim kabiliyeti gerekse verdikleri hizmetle \u00e7ok geli\u015ftirdi. \u00c7in uzman\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131mdan b\u00fcy\u00fck harflerle konu\u015fmak istemem lakin \u00c7in devletinin gerek makro-ekonomik gerekse makro politik alanda att\u0131\u011f\u0131 ad\u0131mlar\u0131 da ak\u0131lc\u0131 buldu\u011fumu s\u00f6ylemek isterim.<\/p>\n
<\/strong>
Birle\u015fmi\u015f Milletler verilerine g\u00f6re, Hindistan May\u0131s ay\u0131nda 1,4 milyar\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n n\u00fcfusuyla d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en kalabal\u0131k \u00fclkesi olma unvan\u0131n\u0131 \u00c7in\u2019in elinden ald\u0131. Bug\u00fcn Hindistan, \u00c7in ve Japonya\u2019dan sonra Uzak Do\u011fu\u2019nun en b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc ekonomisi konumunda. D\u00fcnyan\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck ikinci ekonomisi olan \u00c7in, be\u015finci en b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomisi olan Hindistan\u2019dan yakla\u015f\u0131k be\u015f kat daha b\u00fcy\u00fck. Bu durum \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki s\u00fcre\u00e7te tabi ki de\u011fi\u015febilir.<\/p>\n
<\/strong>
\u00c7in\u2019in t\u00fcm d\u00fcnyada ticari hegemonyas\u0131n\u0131 hepimiz iyi biliyoruz. Fakat \u00c7in\u2019in ticaretin yan\u0131nda politik hegemonyas\u0131n\u0131 Afrika\u2019dan sonra yan\u0131 ba\u015f\u0131m\u0131z Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da da art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131na \u015fahit oluyoruz. Bat\u0131 her ge\u00e7en g\u00fcn \u00c7in\u2019i k\u0131skac\u0131na almaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fsa da, \u00c7in \u00f6nceleri Bat\u0131 i\u00e7in ideolojik bir rakipken daha sonra ekonomik, akabinde teknolojik ve en son politik bir rakip olma yolunda.
\u00c7in son y\u0131llarda Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da jeopolitik ve jeoekonomik ad\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131kla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. Bir s\u00fcre \u00f6nce \u0130ran-Arabistan ve \u0130srail-Filistin aras\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler y\u00fcr\u00fctt\u00fc. Asya oyunlar\u0131 \u00f6ncesi Suriye lideri Be\u015fir Esad ve heyetini \u00c7in Devlet Ba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019na ait bir u\u00e7akla \u00c7in\u2019e getirdi. Esad \u00c7in Devlet Ba\u015fkan\u0131 \u015ei ile g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmesi sonucu \u00c7in ve Suriye “stratejik ortakl\u0131k anla\u015fmas\u0131\u2019\u2019 imzaland\u0131. Bat\u0131l\u0131 bas\u0131n organlar\u0131na g\u00f6re \u00c7in\u2019in hedefi Suriye’nin Akdeniz’deki Lazkiye ve Tartus limanlar\u0131yla Ku\u015fak Yol projesinin Akdeniz aya\u011f\u0131n\u0131 Suriye\u2019nin \u00fczerinden kurgulamak.<\/p>\n
\u00c7in Devlet Ba\u015fkan\u0131 \u015ei, Kuveyt Veliaht Prensi ile de bir stratejik i\u015f birli\u011fi anla\u015fmas\u0131 imzalad\u0131. Kuveyt’le yap\u0131lan bu anla\u015fmalarda, Mubarak Al Kabeer liman\u0131n\u0131n Ku\u015fak Yol projesine dahil edilmesi i\u00e7in niyet beyan\u0131 var. Bunun yan\u0131nda Katar\u2019la enerjiden ticarete farkl\u0131 anla\u015fmalara imza att\u0131. Yine iki \u00fclke aras\u0131nda serbest ticaret anla\u015fmas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri yap\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bunun yan\u0131nda Balkanlarda Bulgaristan, Yunanistan ve Romanya aras\u0131nda b\u00f6lgesel i\u015f birli\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri yap\u0131ld\u0131. Bulgaristan Ba\u015fbakan\u0131 Nikolay Denkov, Yunanistan Ba\u015fbakan\u0131 Kiryakos Mi\u00e7otakis ve Romanya Ba\u015fbakan\u0131 Marcel Ciolacu\u2019nun bir araya geldi\u011fi i\u015f birli\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmesinde lojistik, enerji ve haberle\u015fme altyap\u0131 projeleri g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcld\u00fc. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmede Balt\u0131k Denizi, Karadeniz ve Ege Denizi aras\u0131nda yeni demiryolu in\u015faat projesi, Selanik-Kavala-Dedea\u011fa\u00e7-Burgaz-Varna-K\u00f6stence aras\u0131ndaki ula\u015f\u0131m projesinin Moldova\u2019ya kadar uzat\u0131lmas\u0131 konular\u0131 ele al\u0131nd\u0131. Toplant\u0131 sonunda da ortak i\u015f birli\u011fi bildirgesi imzaland\u0131.<\/p>\n
Afrika her ge\u00e7en g\u00fcn d\u00fcnya ekonomisi i\u00e7in daha da \u00f6nemli bir b\u00f6lge haline geliyor. Zengin yer alt\u0131 kaynaklar\u0131, tar\u0131ma elveri\u015fli arazileri ve gen\u00e7 n\u00fcfus oran\u0131yla 21. y\u00fczy\u0131lda da k\u00fcresel g\u00fc\u00e7ler i\u00e7in yeniden bir m\u00fccadele alan\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor. B\u00f6lge \u00c7in\u2019den Avrupa\u2019ya, Hindistan\u2019dan ABD\u2019ye k\u00fcresel g\u00fc\u00e7lerin ilgilisini \u00e7ekmeye devam ediyor. \u00c7in\u2019in son y\u0131llardaki Afrika K\u0131tas\u0131\u2019na olan ilgisini biliyoruz. Ku\u015fak yol projesiyle \u00c7in\u2019in b\u00f6lgeye olan ilgisi, etkisi ve yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. \u00c7in g\u00fcn ge\u00e7tik\u00e7e b\u00f6lgede y\u00fcksek de\u011ferde altyap\u0131, enerji ve sanayi yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftiriyor.<\/p>\n
B\u00f6lge yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 konusunda da her ge\u00e7en y\u0131l geli\u015fme sa\u011fl\u0131yor. 2021 y\u0131l\u0131nda bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131la g\u00f6re do\u011frudan yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n %64 oran\u0131nda artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bana sorarsan\u0131z Amerika k\u0131tas\u0131nda \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki zorluklar; \u00f6l\u00e7ek, lojistik, ihracat\u0131n finansman\u0131 ve \u00fclke markam\u0131z\u0131n tan\u0131t\u0131m\u0131.<\/p>\n
<\/strong>
2023 y\u0131l\u0131nda gerek \u00fcretim gerekse ihracat t\u00fcm d\u00fcnyada zay\u0131f bir seyir izliyor. OECD\u2019nin k\u00fcresel ekonomik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm raporunda k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n 2022 y\u0131l\u0131ndaki %3,3\u2019l\u00fck seviyeden 2023 y\u0131l\u0131nda %3 \u2019e gerileyece\u011fi \u00f6n g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Ayn\u0131 raporda AB b\u00f6lgesindeki ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmini %0,9\u2019dan %0,6\u2019ya revize edilirken, Almanya ekonomisinin %2 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclece\u011fi ve ABD ekonomisinin %2,2 b\u00fcy\u00fcyece\u011fi tahmin edilmekte.<\/p>\n
G\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fcz \u00fczere k\u00fcresel ekonomi \u00fczerine, uluslararas\u0131 kurumlar\u0131n yay\u0131nlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 raporlarda fark\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fler var. Muhtemelen herkesin kendine kerteriz ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 tahmin ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnce setleri var. T\u00fcm bunlar\u0131 toplay\u0131p, \u00e7arp\u0131p, b\u00f6ld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fczde 2024\u2019de 2023 gibi flu alanlar\u0131n yo\u011fun olaca\u011f\u0131 bir y\u0131l olacak gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n