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Emre ERG\u00dcL<\/strong><\/p>\n Hamas sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 ve ard\u0131ndan ba\u015flayan \u0130srail\u2019in Gazze operasyonlar\u0131 yar\u0131n birinci ay\u0131n\u0131 dolduracak. 7 Ekim\u2019den bu yana 3 bin 760\u2019\u0131 \u00e7ocuk, 9 bin 770 Filistinli hayat\u0131n\u0131 kaybetti.<\/p>\n Eski \u0130srail Ba\u015fbakan\u0131 Naftali Bennett, d\u00fcn \u201cD\u00fcnya kamuoyu art\u0131k bizimle de\u011fil\u201d diyerek \u0130srail\u2019in sivil katliam\u0131n\u0131 ele\u015ftirirken; d\u00fcnya bas\u0131n\u0131ndan da ekonomik uyar\u0131lar ya\u011f\u0131yor. \u0130srail-Hamas Sava\u015f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n k\u00fcresel ekonomiye 1 trilyon dolara yak\u0131n zarar verebilece\u011fine dikkat \u00e7ekilen raporlar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan \u015fimdi de sava\u015f\u0131n Avrupa ekonomisini nas\u0131l vuraca\u011f\u0131na dair yay\u0131nlar ba\u015flad\u0131.<\/p>\n \u0130lk uyar\u0131 Goldman Sachs\u2019tan geldi. Amerikan yat\u0131r\u0131m bankas\u0131na g\u00f6re, \u201cenerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki bask\u0131lar kontrol alt\u0131na al\u0131nmad\u0131k\u00e7a \u0130srail-Hamas sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n Euro B\u00f6lgesi’ndeki ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve enflasyon \u00fczerinde \u00f6nemli bir etkisi olabilir.\u201d<\/p>\n Europe Economics adl\u0131 think tank\u2019ten analist Katya Vashkinskaya da yay\u0131nlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ara\u015ft\u0131rma notunda, \u201cdevam eden d\u00fc\u015fmanl\u0131klar\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck b\u00f6lgesel ticaret, s\u0131k\u0131 finansal ko\u015fullar, y\u00fcksek enerji fiyatlar\u0131 ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveni yoluyla Avrupa ekonomilerini etkileyebilece\u011fini\u201d vurgulad\u0131. CNBC Televizyonu da bu iki uyar\u0131y\u0131, \u201cSava\u015f\u0131n Avrupa ekonomisi \u00fczerindeki b\u00fcy\u00fck etkileri\u201d diye man\u015fete \u00e7ekti.<\/p>\n TV\u2019ye konu\u015fan Vashkinskaya, gerilimlerin Avrupa ekonomisine yay\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n en \u00f6nemli ve potansiyel olarak etkili yolunun petrol ve gaz piyasalar\u0131 oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi: \u201cMevcut \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n ba\u015flamas\u0131ndan bu yana emtia piyasalar\u0131nda volatilite artt\u0131; Brent ham petrol\u00fc ve Avrupa do\u011falgaz fiyatlar\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131yla y\u00fczde 9 ve y\u00fczde 34 civar\u0131nda zirveye ula\u015ft\u0131.\u201d<\/p>\n Goldman Sachs’\u0131n emtia ekibi de petrol arz \u015fokunun ciddiyetine ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n taban \u00e7izgisinin y\u00fczde 5 ile y\u00fczde 20 \u00fczerinde artabilece\u011fi bir dizi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc senaryoya dikkat \u00e7ekerken; Vashkinskaya art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 \u015f\u00f6yle de\u011ferlendirdi: \u201cPetrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki kal\u0131c\u0131 y\u00fczde 10’luk art\u0131\u015f, genellikle Euro B\u00f6lgesi’nin reel GSYH’sini bir y\u0131l sonra yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 0.2 oran\u0131nda azalt\u0131r ve t\u00fcketici fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 bu s\u00fcre i\u00e7inde neredeyse 0.3 puan art\u0131r\u0131r. Benzer etkiler Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k’ta da g\u00f6zlemlendi.<\/p>\n Ancak, s\u00fcr\u00fcklenmenin ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 i\u00e7in petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n istikrarl\u0131 bir \u015fekilde y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131 gerekiyor ki bu zaten \u015f\u00fcpheli bir durum. Brent ham petrol fiyat\u0131 ekim ay\u0131 sonunda neredeyse \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma \u00f6ncesi seviyelere geri d\u00f6nd\u00fc.”<\/p>\n Petrol fiyatlar\u0131, Hamas’\u0131n 7 Ekim’de \u0130srail’e sald\u0131r\u0131 ba\u015flatmas\u0131ndan bu yana dalgal\u0131 seyrediyor. D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131 da yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7 ayl\u0131k g\u00fcncellemede, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n t\u0131rmanmas\u0131 halinde ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n varil ba\u015f\u0131na 150 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kabilece\u011fi konusunda uyard\u0131.<\/p>\n CNBC\u2019ye g\u00f6re, gaz fiyatlar\u0131ndaki geli\u015fmeler, \u0130srail gaz sahalar\u0131ndan k\u00fcresel LNG ihracat\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften kaynaklanan fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve mevcut gaz piyasas\u0131n\u0131n olumsuz arz \u015foklar\u0131na daha az tepki vermesi nedeniyle daha ciddi bir zorluk te\u015fkil ediyor.<\/p>\n Vashkinskaya da kendi emtia ekibinin \u201c102-200 euro\/MWh aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda bir arz senaryosu durumunda Avrupa do\u011falgaz fiyatlar\u0131nda \u00f6nemli bir art\u0131\u015fa i\u015faret etse de, politika tepkisinin mevcut enerji maliyetini devam ettirme veya \u00f6nceki enerji maliyetini yeniden ba\u015flatma y\u00f6n\u00fcnde olaca\u011f\u0131na inand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131\u201d belirtti.<\/p>\n FT: D\u00fcnya petrol\u00fcn\u00fcn % 33\u2019\u00fc b\u00f6lgede \u00fcretildi<\/strong><\/p>\n \u0130ngiliz Financial Times gazetesi de Gazze Sava\u015f\u0131Avrupa ekonomisi aras\u0131ndaki ba\u011f\u0131 \u201cSava\u015f\u0131n sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 olacak\u201d diye man\u015fete ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131.<\/p>\n \u201cB\u00f6lge a\u00e7\u0131k ara d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en \u00f6nemli enerji \u00fcreticisi\u201d diye ba\u015flayan FT\u2019nin haberi \u015f\u00f6yle devam ediyor: \u201c2023 D\u00fcnya Enerji \u0130statistiksel \u0130ncelemesi’ne g\u00f6re b\u00f6lge, k\u00fcresel rezervlerin y\u00fczde 48’ini i\u00e7eriyor ve 2022’de d\u00fcnya petrol\u00fcn\u00fcn y\u00fczde 33’\u00fcn\u00fc \u00fcretti.<\/p>\n ABD Enerji Bilgi \u0130daresi, 2018’de d\u00fcnya petrol arz\u0131n\u0131n 5\u2019te 1\u2019ini K\u00f6rfez’in dibindeki H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131’ndan ge\u00e7irdi. Buras\u0131 k\u00fcresel enerji arz\u0131n\u0131n t\u0131kanma noktas\u0131d\u0131r. D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131 ge\u00e7mi\u015f enerji \u015foklar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde maliyetli oldu\u011funu da belirtiyor.<\/p>\n Irak’\u0131n 1990’da Kuveyt’i i\u015fgal etmesi, \u00fc\u00e7 ay sonra ortalama petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fczde 105 art\u0131rd\u0131. 1973-74 Arap petrol ambargosu y\u00fczde 52, 1978 \u0130ran devrimi ise y\u00fczde 48 y\u00fckseltti.\u201d \u201c\u015eu ana kadar Hamas’\u0131n \u0130srail’e y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 ve Gazze’deki sava\u015f\u0131n petrol fiyatlar\u0131 \u00fczerindeki etkisi \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 oldu. Ger\u00e7ek anlamda, eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda petrol fiyatlar\u0131 1970’ten bu yana ortalamalar\u0131na yak\u0131nd\u0131.<\/p>\n Toplamda \u015fu ana kadar pek dramatik bir geli\u015fme g\u00f6r\u00fclmedi. Rapor ayr\u0131ca, 1970’lerden bu yana petrol\u00fcn \u00f6neminin azald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve petrol piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n daha az k\u0131r\u0131lgan hale geldi\u011fini ekliyor: K\u00fcresel \u00fcretimdeki petrol yo\u011funlu\u011fu o zamandan bu yana y\u00fczde 60’a yak\u0131n azald\u0131; arz kaynaklar\u0131 da \u00e7e\u015fitlendi; stratejik rezervler daha b\u00fcy\u00fck; ve Uluslararas\u0131 Enerji Ajans\u0131’n\u0131n kurulmas\u0131 koordinasyonu geli\u015ftirdi.\u201d<\/p>\n BoE Ba\u015fkan\u0131: Enerji fiyatlar\u0131 i\u00e7in bir risk<\/strong><\/p>\n \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoE) Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Andrew Bailey, Gazze \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131n enerji piyasalar\u0131 \u00fczerindeki zincirleme etkilerinin merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n enflasyonu dizginleme \u00e7abalar\u0131 i\u00e7in potansiyel bir risk olu\u015fturdu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi: \u201c\u015eu ana kadar enerji fiyatlar\u0131nda belirgin bir art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6rmedi\u011fimizi s\u00f6yleyebilirim ve bu kesinlikle iyi. Fakat bu bir risk. \u0130leriye d\u00f6n\u00fck bir risk oldu\u011fu a\u00e7\u0131k.”<\/p>\n GAZZE’DEN NOTLAR<\/strong><\/p>\n -Katoliklerin ruhani lideri ve VatikanDevlet Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Papa Franciscus, “Filistin ve \u0130srail’deki devam eden ciddi durumu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc” belirterek, \u0130srail y\u00f6netimine ate\u015fkes \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu.<\/p>\n – \u0130ran’dan Mossad a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131… \u0130ran ile Afganistan’daki Taliban y\u00f6netimi istihbarat birimlerinin ortak \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131yla, iki \u00fclke aras\u0131ndaki da\u011fl\u0131k b\u00f6lgede, \u0130ran’a \u0130HA sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131 d\u00fczenleme haz\u0131rlad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda olan ve Mossad ajan\u0131 oldu\u011fu \u00f6ne s\u00fcr\u00fclen 3 ki\u015finin yakaland\u0131\u011f\u0131 bildirildi.<\/p>\n -Gazze’deki Filistin h\u00fck\u00fcmeti, \u0130srail’in yo\u011fun sald\u0131r\u0131 alt\u0131nda tuttu\u011fu Gazze \u015eeridi’nde medya mensuplar\u0131n\u0131n hayatlar\u0131n\u0131n korunmas\u0131 ve \u00f6l\u00fcmlerinden \u0130srail’in sorumlu tutulmas\u0131 \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu.<\/p>\n -The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) gazetesi, ABD ve \u0130srail’in, Gazze’ye ili\u015fkin uzun vadeli planlarda g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f ayr\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ne s\u00fcrd\u00fc. \u0130srail’i destekleyen ABD’nin \u0130ran, Rusya ve \u00c7in’e kar\u015f\u0131 “m\u00fcttefiklerini” bir arada tutmay\u0131 ama\u00e7lad\u0131\u011f\u0131 kaydedilen haberde, ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Joe Biden’\u0131n “kendi partisinden y\u00fckselen ele\u015ftirel seslerin” ard\u0131ndan politika de\u011fi\u015ftirdi\u011fine dikkat \u00e7ekildi.<\/p>\n – \u0130srailli a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sa\u011fc\u0131 Miras Bakan\u0131 Eliyahu, abluka alt\u0131ndaki Gazze \u015eeridi’ne n\u00fckleer bomba at\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n olas\u0131l\u0131klardan biri oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi. \u0130srail Ba\u015fbakan\u0131 Benjamin Netanyahu’nun Eliyahu’yu s\u00fcresiz olarak kabine toplant\u0131lar\u0131ndan uzakla\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 bildirildi.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n