{"id":7249,"date":"2023-10-30T08:29:07","date_gmt":"2023-10-30T05:29:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/egemhabertv.com\/?p=7249"},"modified":"2023-10-30T08:29:07","modified_gmt":"2023-10-30T05:29:07","slug":"bu-hafta-gundem-fed-ve-jeopolitik-riskler-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/egemhabertv.com\/?p=7249","title":{"rendered":"Bu hafta g\u00fcndem Fed ve jeopolitik riskler"},"content":{"rendered":"

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\u00dczeyir DO\u011eAN<\/strong>
PhillipCapital Yurt \u0130\u00e7i Piyasalar Grup Ba\u015fkan\u0131<\/strong><\/p>\n

May\u0131s ay\u0131ndan ba\u015flayarak \u00fcst \u00fcste 5 ay boyunca y\u00fckselen BIST 100<\/a> endeksinde ekim ay\u0131 sert kay\u0131plar\u0131n ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir ay olarak geride kalmak \u00fczere.\u00a0 May\u0131s ba\u015f\u0131ndan ekim ba\u015f\u0131na kadar yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 95 y\u00fckselen BIST 100\u2019de 3 Ekim\u2019den sonra gelen sat\u0131\u015flarla kay\u0131p y\u00fczde 13\u2019\u00fc buldu. May\u0131s ay\u0131ndan sonra ya\u015fanan en b\u00fcy\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f de y\u00fczde 7\u2019nin \u00fczerindeki kay\u0131pla 25 Ekim \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fte ana etken Filistin ile \u0130srail aras\u0131ndaki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n getirdi\u011fi jeopolitik riskler oldu. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki g\u00fcnlerde \u0130srail\u2019in Gazze\u2019ye olas\u0131 bir kara harek\u00e2t\u0131 ba\u015flatmas\u0131 halinde hem sava\u015f\u0131n uzun bir s\u00fcre devam edebilece\u011fi hem de Ortado\u011fu\u2019daki gerilimin daha geni\u015f bir b\u00f6lgeye yay\u0131labilece\u011fi ve ba\u015fka \u00fclkelere de s\u0131\u00e7rayabilece\u011fine ili\u015fkin endi\u015feler k\u00fcresel risk i\u015ftah\u0131 \u00fczerinde yeniden bask\u0131 olu\u015fturabilir.<\/p>\n

Yeni haftada 1 Kas\u0131m \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc sona erecek Fed toplant\u0131s\u0131 piyasalar\u0131n yak\u0131n takibinde yer alacak. Fed\u2019in kas\u0131m toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faiz<\/a> oranlar\u0131nda de\u011fi\u015fime gitmeyece\u011fine kesin g\u00f6z\u00fcyle bak\u0131l\u0131rken, karar metnindeki ifadeler ve Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Powell\u2019\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 k\u00fcresel \u00e7apta fiyatlamalar\u0131 \u015fekillendirecektir. \u00d6nceki hafta a\u00e7\u0131klamalarda bulunan Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Powell\u2019\u0131n enflasyonla m\u00fccadele vurgusu ile s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015fun korunaca\u011f\u0131 s\u00f6ylemini devam ettirece\u011fi, veri odakl\u0131 ve temkinli yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclece\u011fi ve jeopolitik risklerin yak\u0131ndan izlendi\u011fine ili\u015fkin mesajlar\u0131n \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131 ayn\u0131 zamanda b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmas\u0131 durumunda son a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131nda belirtti\u011fi gibi ek faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na gidilebilece\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n

ABD ekonomisi, \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte t\u00fcketici harcamalar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n etkisiyle y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda y\u00fczde 4,9 ile 2021’den bu yana en h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini kaydetti. ABD ekonomisinin Fed\u2019in s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma ad\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n gecikmeli etkisiyle y\u0131l\u0131n son \u00e7eyre\u011finden itibaren zay\u0131flamas\u0131 beklenirken, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc gibi bir zay\u0131flama olmamas\u0131 ve ABD ekonomisinin g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc korumaya devam etmesi Fed\u2019e ili\u015fkin ek s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma endi\u015feleri art\u0131rabilir.<\/p>\n

Piyasadaki beklentilere bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda Fed\u2019in art\u0131k faiz art\u0131r\u0131m d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn sonuna geldi\u011fini ve 2024 Haziran sonras\u0131nda kademeli faiz indirimlerinin ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131 fiyatlan\u0131yor. Bu senenin ba\u015f\u0131nda ABD ekonomisi resesyona girer mi tart\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 yap\u0131l\u0131rken, mevcut durumda ABD\u2019nin \u015fa\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 \u015fekilde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmas\u0131 \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki s\u00fcre\u00e7 i\u00e7in de tahmin yapmay\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. Ge\u00e7en hafta Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Powell\u2019\u0131n da alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7izdi\u011fi \u00fczere ABD ekonomisi diren\u00e7li kalmaya deva ederse ek faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 g\u00f6rebilece\u011fimizi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Ancak ana d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcncemiz Fed\u2019in agresif s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n gecikmeli etkilerinin 2024 y\u0131l\u0131nda daha hissedilir olaca\u011f\u0131 ve ABD ekonomisinde yava\u015flaman\u0131n daha belirgin bir \u015fekilde g\u00f6r\u00fclece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde. Bu senaryo alt\u0131nda Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n sonuna geldi\u011fini ve 2024 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131 itibariyle kademeli bir indirim d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc koruyoruz.<\/p>\n

Buna kar\u015f\u0131n e\u011fer jeopolitik riskler k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi tehdit edecek boyuta ula\u015fmazsa, faiz indirim d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn ge\u00e7 ve olduk\u00e7a yava\u015f bir \u015fekilde olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131n\u0131n ciddi bir resesyona giden bir durum ya\u015fanmazsa hem Fed hem de k\u00fcresel merkez bankalar\u0131 nezdinde uzun bir s\u00fcre korunaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7izmek laz\u0131m.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

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[ad_1] \u00dczeyir DO\u011eANPhillipCapital Yurt \u0130\u00e7i Piyasalar Grup Ba\u015fkan\u0131 May\u0131s ay\u0131ndan ba\u015flayarak \u00fcst \u00fcste 5 ay<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":7100,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-7249","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/egemhabertv.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7249","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/egemhabertv.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/egemhabertv.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/egemhabertv.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/egemhabertv.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=7249"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/egemhabertv.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7249\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/egemhabertv.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/7100"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/egemhabertv.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=7249"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/egemhabertv.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=7249"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/egemhabertv.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=7249"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}