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Emre ERG\u00dcL<\/strong><\/p>\n Ukrayna Sava\u015f\u0131\u2026 \u0130srail-Hamas \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131\u2026 T\u00fcm d\u00fcnyada kurakl\u0131k veya sellere neden olan El Nino hava olay\u0131\u2026 Merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n faiz kararlar\u0131\u2026 D\u00fcnya, bu 4 b\u00fcy\u00fck olay\u0131n etkisiyle 63 g\u00fcn sonra yeni bir y\u0131la girecek. Adettendir, \u201cYeni y\u0131l, yeni umutlar\u201d denir.<\/p>\n Peki, piyasalar 2024\u2019ten umutlu mu? T\u00fcm bu ya\u015fanan olaylar\u0131n piyasalar \u00fczerindeki etkisini D\u00dcNYA\u2019ya de\u011ferlendiren emtia piyasalar\u0131 uzman\u0131 Zafer Ergezen\u2019e g\u00f6re \u201chay\u0131r.\u201d \u201cJeopolitik riskler her \u015feyin \u00f6n\u00fcne ge\u00e7ti.<\/p>\n Bir yanda da ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) ve merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 s\u00fcreci\u2026 \u201c2024\u2019\u00fcn ilk \u00e7eyre\u011fi zor ge\u00e7ecek\u201d diyen Ergezen \u015f\u00f6yle devam etti: \u201cFaizlerin daha uzun s\u00fcreli y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131 piyasalarda endi\u015fe yarat\u0131yor Fed faiz art\u0131rmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ya da 1 kez art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylese\u2026<\/p>\n Ya da konuyla ilgili belirsizlik netle\u015fse, toparlanma ba\u015flar. Borsalar ve emtia piyasalar\u0131 \u00f6nden fiyatland\u0131rma yapar.\u201d Yeni y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finin zor ge\u00e7ece\u011fini yineleyen Ergezen, ilk \u00e7eyrekte \u00fc\u00e7 emtia \u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fcn\u00fcn y\u0131ld\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n parlamas\u0131n\u0131 bekledi\u011fini belirtti.<\/p>\n \u00a0\u0130\u015fte o Top3:<\/strong><\/p>\n PAMUK:<\/strong> \u201c2024\u2019\u00fcn ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde \u00f6n plana \u00e7\u0131kacak. Stoklarda 10 milyon balyaya varan bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Nedeni ise G\u00fcneydo\u011fu Asya\u2019daki mahsulleri vuran El Nino\u2026\u201d<\/p>\n \u015eEKER:<\/strong> \u201c\u00d6n plana \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131 bekledi\u011fim bir di\u011fer \u00fcr\u00fcn. Brezilya ve Hindistan iki ana \u00fcretici \u00fclke. Ama El Nino\u2019nun etkisiyle \u00fcretim a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 beklentisi var. Yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc fiyatland\u0131rma g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir.\u201d<\/p>\n BAKIR:<\/strong> \u201cDolar endeksinden dolay\u0131 geri gelmi\u015fti. Ancak bir toparlanma g\u00f6r\u00fclecek.\u201d Bu noktada, Ergezen\u2019e \u0130srail-Hamas \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 soruyoruz: \u201cGazze\u2019ye bir kara harekat\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015flamas\u0131, emtia piyasalar\u0131n\u0131 etkiler mi?\u201d Emtia piyasalar\u0131 uzman\u0131, \u201cOrtado\u011fu\u2019daki \u015fu ana kadarki geli\u015fmeler piyasada fiyatland\u0131rma i\u00e7erisine girdi. Alt\u0131n y\u00fckseldi, petrol 90 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Sava\u015f b\u00f6lgesel kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece b\u00f6yle olur. Sava\u015f\u0131n yay\u0131lmas\u0131 durumunda alt\u0131n\u0131 2 bin dolar\u0131n, petrol 100 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde g\u00f6rebiliriz.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cTah\u0131l koridoru ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 kriz beklemiyorum\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n Ukrayna, Karadeniz\u2019deki ge\u00e7ici tah\u0131l koridorunu kapatt\u0131. Yeni bir tar\u0131m emtia krizi olur mu?<\/p>\n A\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7as\u0131 b\u00f6yle bir kriz beklemiyorum. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc son raporlar elimizde. Bir anormallik yok. \u00dcretimde, stoklarda ya da ticarette sorun g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyor. Tah\u0131ld\u0131r, m\u0131s\u0131rd\u0131r, bir sorun g\u00f6rm\u00fcyorum.<\/p>\n \u201cD\u00fcnyada bor\u00e7 krizi olursa alt\u0131n 10 bin $ olur\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n Financial Sense Wealth Management\u2019in kurucusu James Puplava, alt\u0131n\u0131n 2030\u2019da 10 bin dolar\u0131, g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn de 300 dolar\u0131 g\u00f6rece\u011fini \u00f6ne s\u00fcrd\u00fc. Uzun vadede bunu m\u00fcmk\u00fcn g\u00f6r\u00fcyor musunuz?<\/p>\n D\u00fcnyan\u0131n gidi\u015fat\u0131nda faizlerin art\u0131k geri d\u00fc\u015fmeyece\u011fini varsayarsak, b\u00f6yle bir rakam olabilir. D\u00fcnyada bir bor\u00e7 krizi olursa ons alt\u0131n 10 bin, g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f de 300 dolarlar\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcr. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc paran\u0131n bir anlam\u0131 olmayacak! ABD\u2019nin bor\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6deyecek olmas\u0131 \u00e7ok ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i gelmiyor. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc bu senaryo, paran\u0131n yerini alt\u0131n\u0131n ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 anlatan bir senaryo. Yani dolar\u0131n da euronun da de\u011ferinin kalmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ne s\u00fcren bir senaryo.<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n