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Emre ERG\u00dcL<\/strong><\/p>\n Ons alt\u0131n\u0131n 300 dolar oldu\u011fu d\u00f6nemde \u201c10 y\u0131la bin dolar olur\u201d diyen ABD\u2019li ekonomist Puplava\u2019dan yeni tahmin: \u201c2030\u2019a kadar ons alt\u0131n 10 bin dolar, g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f ise 300 dolar olacak.\u201d Allianz Trade\u2019den \u00e7ifte uyar\u0131: 1) Ortado\u011fu\u2019daki gerilim y\u00fcz\u00fcnden petrol 140 dolar\u0131 g\u00f6rebilir ve d\u00fcnyay\u0131 bir resesyona s\u00fcr\u00fckleyebilir. 2) K\u00fcresel ticari iflaslar art\u0131yor.<\/p>\n \u201cG\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ilerlemenin ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131nday\u0131z\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n Bug\u00fcn 1984.34 dolar olan ona alt\u0131n, 10 bin dolar olabilir mi? 500 milyon dolarl\u0131k portf\u00f6y i\u015fleten ABD\u2019li yat\u0131r\u0131m dan\u0131\u015fmanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u015firketi Financial Sense Wealth Management\u2019in kurucusu James Puplava\u2019ya g\u00f6re \u201cEvet.\u201d \u00c7ekya k\u00f6kenli ABD\u2019li ekonomist, 2030\u2019a kadar ons alt\u0131n\u0131n 10 bin dolara, g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn de 300 dolara ula\u015faca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n “O konu\u015fuyorsa dinlemek laz\u0131m”<\/strong><\/p>\n Puplava, y\u00fczy\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda, alt\u0131n\u0131n 300 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131nda oldu\u011fu d\u00f6nemde, de\u011ferli metallerdeki 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k bo\u011fa ko\u015fusunu do\u011fru bir \u015fekilde tahmin edip, alt\u0131n\u0131n 1000 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde t\u00fcm zamanlar\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyelerine ula\u015faca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylemi\u015fti.<\/p>\n Bug\u00fcn alt\u0131n, 2 bin dolar band\u0131n\u0131 zorluyor. Global yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara y\u00f6nelik 15 dilde yay\u0131n yapan FXEmpire, Puplava\u2019n\u0131n s\u00f6zlerini man\u015fete \u00e7ekti; \u201cBu adam konu\u015ftu\u011funda dinlemeniz ak\u0131ll\u0131ca olacakt\u0131r\u201d diyerek alt\u0131n\u0131n seyrine dair bir haber haz\u0131rlad\u0131.<\/p>\n FXEmpire\u2019a g\u00f6re, alt\u0131n\u0131n \u201cy\u0131l sonundan \u00f6nce 2 bin 90 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine bir k\u0131r\u0131lma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 giderek art\u0131yor\u201d ve \u201c2 bin 90 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde s\u00fcrekli bir art\u0131\u015f, 2024’\u00fcn 3\u2019\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011fi i\u00e7in 3 bin dolarl\u0131k fiyat hedefini destekleyecek.\u201d FXEmpire, g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015fte de bir art\u0131\u015f \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc yazd\u0131: \u201cFiyatlar toparland\u0131 ve y\u0131l sonundan \u00f6nce 26,00 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde bir y\u00fckseli\u015f bekliyoruz.\u201d<\/p>\n “2024’te 3 bini g\u00f6rene kadar durmayacakt\u0131r”<\/strong><\/p>\n \u00a0Goldpredict.com\u2019un edit\u00f6r\u00fc AG Thorson da FXEmpire\u2019a yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmede, \u201cMetallerde ve madencilerde nihai y\u0131k\u0131m tamamland\u0131 ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir ilerlemenin ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 a\u015famalar\u0131na giriyor olabiliriz\u201d dedi ve ekledi: \u201cAlt\u0131n 2 bin 100 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, 2024\u2019te 3 bin dolara ula\u015fana kadar duraca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnm\u00fcyorum. Alt\u0131n madencileri buradan harekete ge\u00e7ebilir.\u201d<\/p>\n “2024 ortalamas\u0131 120 $ olabilir”<\/strong><\/p>\n Frans merkezli Allianz Trade\u2019in Ba\u015fekonomisti Ana Boata, Ortado\u011fu\u2019daki gerilimin petrol fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131mas\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirdi. Bloomberg\u2019e konu\u015fan Boata, \u201cHam petrol fiyatlar\u0131 varil ba\u015f\u0131na 140 dolara kadar \u00e7\u0131kabilir ve d\u00fcnyay\u0131 resesyona s\u00fcr\u00fckleyebilir\u201d dedi. \u0130srail-Hamas \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n b\u00f6lgesel bir sava\u015fa d\u00f6nmesinin petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 u\u00e7uraca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirten Boata, mevcutta 90 dolar civar\u0131nda olan fiyatlar\u0131n 140 dolara ula\u015faca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, hatta \u201c2024’te 120 dolar ortalamay\u0131 g\u00f6rece\u011fini\u201d iddia etti.<\/p>\n Allianz Trade\u2019in bir di\u011fer \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fc de k\u00fcresel ticari iflaslarla ilgili oldu. Allianz Trade, yeni K\u00fcresel \u0130flas Raporu’nu yay\u0131nlayarak, 2023 ve 2024 i\u00e7in g\u00fcncellenmi\u015f tahminlerini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Allianz Trade\u2019e g\u00f6re; 2022 y\u0131l\u0131ndaki y\u00fczde 1\u2019lik \u00e7ok az toparlanman\u0131n ard\u0131ndan, k\u00fcresel iflaslar 2023\u2019te y\u00fczde 6 ve 2024\u2019te ise y\u00fczde 10 oran\u0131nda artacak.<\/p>\n Rapora g\u00f6re k\u00fcresel ticari iflas ivmesinin h\u0131z kazanmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131nda, \u015firket gelirlerindeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, fiyatland\u0131rma g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn azalmas\u0131 ve zay\u0131flayan k\u00fcresel talep yat\u0131yor. Raporda ayr\u0131ca, 2023 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011fi itibariyle, \u015firket gelirlerindeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn, 2020 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ortalar\u0131ndan bu yana \u201cilk kez,\u201d t\u00fcm b\u00f6lgelerde geni\u015f bir tabana yay\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131na dikkat \u00e7ekiliyor.<\/p>\n Bu durumun, devam eden y\u00fcksek maliyetlerle birle\u015ferek k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 azaltt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve sonu\u00e7 olarak da likidite pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131n h\u0131zla k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015fti\u011fi, 2025 y\u0131l\u0131ndan \u00f6nce de iyile\u015fmesinin beklenmedi\u011fi belirtiliyor.<\/p>\n Allianz Trade CEO’su Aylin Somersan Coqui,3.4 milyar euro ile Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde ve 2.5 milyar dolar ile ABD\u2019de \u015firketlerin h\u00e2l\u00e2 \u00f6nemli miktarda nakit fazlas\u0131 bulundu\u011fu bilgisini vererek, \u201cAncak, bu nakit tamponlar\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck firmalar\u0131n elinde ve teknoloji ve t\u00fcketici \u00fcr\u00fcnleri gibi belirli sekt\u00f6rlerde yo\u011funla\u015fm\u0131\u015f durumda. Ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin daha uzun s\u00fcrece\u011fi bu konjonkt\u00fcrde \u00e7o\u011fu \u015firket nakit pozisyonunu operasyonlar yoluyla art\u0131ram\u0131yor.<\/p>\n Sonu\u00e7 olarak, k\u00fcresel ticari iflaslarda 2022 y\u0131l\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen y\u00fczde 1\u2019lik art\u0131\u015f\u0131n, 2023 y\u0131l\u0131nda h\u0131zlanarak y\u00fczde 6 ve 2024 y\u0131l\u0131nda biraz daha h\u0131zlanarak y\u00fczde 10 olmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz” diyor. Raporda; konaklama, ula\u015f\u0131m ve toptan\/perakendecilik hizmetlerinin ba\u015f\u0131 \u00e7ekti\u011fi en k\u0131r\u0131lgan \u015firketlerin ve sekt\u00f6rlerin 2023\u2019te iki arada bir derede s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131p kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 vurgulan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n \u00d6zellikle konut segmentinde bekleyen i\u015flerin neredeyse tamamland\u0131\u011f\u0131 in\u015faat sekt\u00f6r\u00fc ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere; di\u011fer sekt\u00f6rlerin de net nakit pozisyonlar\u0131 h\u0131zla k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015fen bu sekt\u00f6rlerle ayn\u0131 yolda h\u0131zla aray\u0131 kapatt\u0131\u011f\u0131 raporda \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan bilgiler aras\u0131nda yer al\u0131yor.<\/p>\n Raporda yer verilen bilgilere g\u00f6re 2023 y\u0131l\u0131 sonunda, ticari iflaslardaki normalle\u015fme \u00e7o\u011fu geli\u015fmi\u015f ekonomide tamamlanm\u0131\u015f olacak ve \u00fclkelerin y\u00fczde 55’inde iflaslarda \u00e7ift haneli b\u00fcy\u00fck art\u0131\u015flar g\u00f6r\u00fclecek. Bu \u00fclkeler aras\u0131nda y\u00fczde 47\u2019lik art\u0131\u015f ile ABD, y\u00fczde 36 ile Fransa, y\u00fczde 59 ile Hollanda, y\u00fczde 35 ile Japonya ve y\u00fczde 41\u2019lik art\u0131\u015f ile de G\u00fcney Kore bulunuyor.<\/p>\n K\u00fcresel olarak, ABD ve Almanya gibi b\u00fcy\u00fck pazarlar da dahil olmak \u00fczere, her be\u015f \u00fclkeden \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn\u00fcn, 2024 y\u0131l\u0131 sonuna kadar pandemi \u00f6ncesi ticari iflas seviyelerine ula\u015faca\u011f\u0131 da raporda yer al\u0131yor. Rapora g\u00f6re; Atlantik’in her iki yakas\u0131nda da iflas rakamlar\u0131n\u0131n istikrara kavu\u015fmas\u0131 i\u00e7in GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin iki kat\u0131na \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 gerekiyor ki bu da 2025’ten \u00f6nce ger\u00e7ekle\u015femez.<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n