\u015eebnem TURHAN<\/strong><\/p>\n Bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde bilan\u00e7o d\u00f6nemi 26 Ekim\u2019de Akbank ile ba\u015flayacak. T\u00dcFE\u2019ye endeksli tahvillerin getirisi hesab\u0131nda y\u0131lsonu enflasyon tahminlerinin yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc g\u00fcncellenmesi \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn net kar art\u0131\u015f\u0131nda en etkili unsur oldu.<\/p>\n Borsa<\/a> \u0130stanbul\u2019da i\u015flem g\u00f6ren \u015firketler i\u00e7in \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrek bilan\u00e7o d\u00f6nemi ba\u015flad\u0131. Bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde ise ilk bilan\u00e7o 26 Ekim\u2019de Akbank ile ba\u015flayacak. Arac\u0131 kurumlar\u0131n raporlar\u0131 bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde net kar rakam\u0131n\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011fe g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 22, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re ise y\u00fczde 14 artmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor. \u00d6zellikle T\u00dcFE\u2019ye endeksli tahvil gelirlerinin enfl asyon verilerinin g\u00fcncellenmesiyle net kara daha \u00e7ok katk\u0131 yaratmas\u0131 beklenirken kurumlar vergisi oran\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f net kar rakamlar\u0131nda etkisini g\u00f6sterdi. Kurumlar\u0131n beklenti ve \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclerine yak\u0131ndan bakal\u0131m:<\/p>\n DEN\u0130Z YATIRIM<\/strong><\/p>\n Deniz Yat\u0131r\u0131m\u2019\u0131n beklenti raporunda ara\u015ft\u0131rma kapsamlar\u0131nda yer alan bankalar\u0131n net kar rakam\u0131n\u0131n bir \u00f6nceki d\u00f6neme g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 22, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re ise y\u00fczde 14 artmas\u0131n\u0131n beklendi\u011fi yer ald\u0131. Deniz Yat\u0131r\u0131m\u2019a g\u00f6re kamu bankalar\u0131ndaki ge\u00e7mi\u015f d\u00f6nemlerin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck baz\u0131 nedeniyle kar art\u0131\u015f\u0131 daha y\u00fcksek beklenebilir. Sadece \u00f6zel bankalar taraf\u0131nda ise net kar\u0131n y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda y\u00fczde 15, \u00e7eyreksel bazda ise y\u00fczde 9 artmas\u0131n\u0131 tahmin edildi. Sekt\u00f6r genelinde \u00f6zsermaye karl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 35 ile 3\u00c722\u2019ye g\u00f6re 13 puan kadar daral\u0131rken, 2\u00c723\u2019e g\u00f6re ise yakla\u015f\u0131k 5 puan artabilece\u011fini bekleniyor.<\/p>\n Deniz Yat\u0131r\u0131m bilan\u00e7olarda \u00f6n plana \u00e7\u0131kan dinamikleri ise \u015f\u00f6yle s\u0131ralad\u0131: \u201cTL kredilerdeki b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin bir \u00f6nceki d\u00f6neme g\u00f6re hafif yava\u015flamas\u0131, TL mevduat b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin TL kredi art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n olduk\u00e7a \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi, TL tarafta mevduat\u0131n krediye d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm oran\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nceki \u00e7eyre\u011fe g\u00f6re iyile\u015fmesi ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc aktif kalitesinin artan kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k oranlar\u0131 ile birlikte korunmu\u015f olmas\u0131.\u201d Karl\u0131l\u0131k taraf\u0131nda ise; TL kredi getirilerindeki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n etkisi ile TL kredi\/mevduat faiz makas\u0131ndaki zay\u0131fl \u0131\u011f\u0131n sona ermesi, T\u00dc- FE\u2019ye endeksli bonolar\u0131n banka baz\u0131nda farkl\u0131la\u015fmakla birlikte \u00f6nceki \u00e7eyre\u011fe g\u00f6re olduk\u00e7a y\u00fcksek katk\u0131 sa\u011flamas\u0131 ve komisyon gelirlerindeki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrin etkili oldu\u011funu belirten Deniz Yat\u0131r\u0131m raporunda y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda kar art\u0131\u015f\u0131nda TSKB ve Vak\u0131fb ank\u2019\u0131n, \u00e7eyreksel bazda kar art\u0131\u015f\u0131nda ise Yap\u0131 Kredi\u2019nin daha \u00f6n planda olabilece\u011fi vurguland\u0131.<\/p>\n Z\u0130RAAT YATIRIM<\/strong><\/p>\n Ziraat Yat\u0131r\u0131m\u2019\u0131n beklenti raporunda kredi mevduat makas\u0131nda toparlanma ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve y\u0131lsonu enfl asyonunda yap\u0131lan yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revizyonlarla birlikte \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte T\u00dcFE endeksli tahvil getirilerinin pozitif etkisi g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc vurguland\u0131. Raporda sekt\u00f6rde net \u00fccret ve komisyon gelirlerinde b\u00fcy\u00fcme devam ederken, d\u00f6viz<\/a> kurlar\u0131ndaki g\u00f6rece d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oynakl\u0131kla birlikte ticari karda ve kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131klarda normalle\u015fme g\u00f6zlendi\u011fi kaydedildi. \u0130\u015ftirak gelirleri yine destekleyici olurken, vergi etkisi karl\u0131l\u0131klarda etkisini g\u00f6sterdi.<\/p>\n Rapora g\u00f6re bankalar bu \u00e7eyrekte T\u00dcFE endeksli tahvillerin getirileri hesaplamas\u0131nda enfl asyon tahminini de\u011fi\u015ftirdi. Akbank ve Yap\u0131 Kredi T\u00dcFE tahminini y\u00fczde 40\u2019tan y\u00fczde 60\u2019a, Garanti Bankas\u0131 y\u00fczde 35\u2019ten y\u00fczde 55\u2019e, Halkbank y\u00fczde 50\u2019den y\u00fczde 60\u2019a, Vak\u0131fb ank y\u00fczde 34\u2019ten y\u00fczde 50,8\u2019e revize ederken, enfl asyon anketini baz alan \u0130\u015f Bankas\u0131\u2019nda kullan\u0131lan T\u00dcFE tahmini y\u00fczde 30\u2019dan y\u00fczde 44\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131. Bu kapsamda, \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte banka karl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131na T\u00dcFE endeksli tahvillerin \u00f6nemli katk\u0131s\u0131 olacak. T\u00dcFE endeksli tahvillerin getirisi d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda kredi mevduat makas\u0131ndaki geni\u015fleme de karl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 desteklerken, net faiz gelirlerinde Vak\u0131fb ank ve Yap\u0131 Kredi Bankas\u0131\u2019nda art\u0131\u015flar \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Mevduattaki y\u00fcksek art\u0131\u015f nedeniyle \u0130\u015f Bankas\u0131\u2019nda daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck net faiz geliri art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ya\u015fand\u0131. Di\u011fer yandan, \u00fccret ve komisyon gelirlerinde, ekonomik aktivitenin canl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 korumas\u0131 ve devam eden kredi b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi nedeniyle g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n devam edece\u011fi beklenirken, en y\u00fcksek art\u0131\u015f\u0131n \u0130\u015f Bankas\u0131\u2019nda olmas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Ziraat Yat\u0131r\u0131m raporunda, \u0130\u015f Bankas\u0131 ve Vak\u0131fb ank\u2019ta bu y\u0131l\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011findeki efektif vergi oran\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck di\u011fer \u00f6zel bankalar\u0131n y\u00fcksek olaca\u011f\u0131 varsay\u0131l\u0131rken Halkbank\u2019\u0131n ise vergi geliri yazmas\u0131 beklendi\u011fi kaydedildi. Raporda, en y\u00fcksek kar art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6zel bankalarda Yap\u0131 Kredi\u2019de ya\u015fanabilece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc, kamu bankalar\u0131n\u0131n kar\u0131nda da \u00f6nemli bir art\u0131\u015f ya\u015fanmas\u0131 tahmin edildi. Di\u011fer taraftan bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 \u00e7eyre\u011fine g\u00f6re ise en y\u00fcksek kar art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 TSKB\u2019nin kaydetmesi bekleniyor. Bu \u00e7eyrekte en y\u00fcksek kar\u0131 Akbank\u2019\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klayabilece\u011fi tahmin edildi.<\/p>\n \u015eEKER YATIRIM<\/strong><\/p>\n Kurumun raporunda takip ettikleri bankalar i\u00e7in \u00e7eyreksel bazda kar art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n hafif toparlanarak ikinci \u00e7eyrekteki y\u00fczde 16 seviyesinden \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte y\u00fczde 21 seviyesine ula\u015fmas\u0131 modellendi. Y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda ise y\u00fczde 14 kar art\u0131\u015f\u0131 bekleyen \u015eeker Yat\u0131r\u0131m \u00f6zel mevduat bankalar\u0131nda y\u00fczde 8 seviyesinde s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131, kamu mevduat bankalar\u0131nda ise y\u00fczde 562 oran\u0131nda olduk\u00e7a kuvvetli \u00e7eyreksel kar art\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
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