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Emre ERG\u00dcL<\/strong><\/p>\n Senaryo -1<\/strong><\/p>\n \u0130srail-Hamas \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 kara harek\u00e2t\u0131yla s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kal\u0131rsa\u2026 Petrol 93 $<\/strong><\/p>\n 13 Ekim\u2019de 90 dolar\u0131 g\u00f6ren Brent petrol, hastane sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131 sonras\u0131 92 dolara dayand\u0131. Brent petrol vadeli i\u015flemleri y\u00fczde 2.3 art\u0131\u015fla varil ba\u015f\u0131na 91.97 dolara y\u00fckselirken, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) ham vadeli i\u015flemleri varil ba\u015f\u0131na y\u00fczde 2.6 art\u0131\u015fla, 87.63 dolara y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n Herkesin akl\u0131nda ayn\u0131 soru: \u201cPetrol 100 dolar olur mu?\u201d \u0130ngiliz Guardian gazetesi de bu soruyu masaya yat\u0131rd\u0131. Gazeteye konu\u015fan k\u00fcresel ekonomistlere g\u00f6re, petrol i\u00e7in biri iyi, biri k\u00f6t\u00fc, iki senaryo var. Gazetenin \u201cilk ve k\u00fcresel ekonomi i\u00e7in en iyisi\u201d dedi\u011fi senaryo, sava\u015f\u0131n \u0130srail’in Gazze \u015eeridi’ne kara sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131yla s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalmas\u0131n\u0131 i\u00e7eriyor.<\/p>\n Bu ko\u015fullar alt\u0131nda, petrol fiyatlar\u0131 mevcut varil ba\u015f\u0131na 93 dolar seviyesinde istikrar kazanacak ve yak\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015fmeye ba\u015flayacak. Gazete \u015fu yorumu yapt\u0131: \u201cIMF, petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki s\u00fcrekli y\u00fczde 10’luk art\u0131\u015f\u0131n k\u00fcresel ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi y\u00fczde 0.15 puan azaltt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve bir sonraki y\u0131l enflasyona 0.4 puan ekledi\u011fini tahmin ediyor.<\/p>\n D\u00fcnya emtia piyasalar\u0131nda bir varil ham petrol\u00fcn maliyeti, \u015fu anda Hamas sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesine g\u00f6re, yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 10 daha y\u00fcksek.\u201d Petrol piyasas\u0131 ile \u0130srail ili\u015fkisi \u015f\u00f6yle \u00f6zetlenebilir: 1973\u2019teki Yom Kimpur Sava\u015f\u0131 sonras\u0131 OPEC, \u0130srail\u2019e petrol ambargosu uygulam\u0131\u015f, ham petrol fiyat\u0131 4 kat artm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Hastane sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131 sonras\u0131 \u0130ran, \u0130srail\u2019e bir kez daha petrol ambargosu uygulanmas\u0131n\u0131 talep etti. Ancak Reuters\u2019\u0131n haberine g\u00f6re, OPEC\u2019in an itibar\u0131yla b\u00f6yle bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcncesi yok.<\/p>\n Senaryo -2<\/strong><\/p>\n \u00c7at\u0131\u015fmaya L\u00fcbnan\u2019daki Hizbullah kat\u0131l\u0131rsa\u2026 Petrol 150 $<\/strong><\/p>\n Guardian gazetesinin g\u00fcndeme getirdi\u011fi ikinci senaryo ise \u201cb\u00f6lgesel \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma\u201dy\u0131 i\u00e7eriyor. Yani, L\u00fcbnan\u2019daki \u0130ran destekli Hizbullah g\u00fc\u00e7leri \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalara kat\u0131l\u0131r ve daha sonra \u0130ran da sava\u015f\u0131n i\u00e7ine \u00e7ekilir\u2026\u201d Bu senaryoda da soru \u015fu: \u201cB\u00f6lgesel sava\u015fta petrol\u00fcn fiyat\u0131 100 dolar\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcr m\u00fc?\u201d Uzmanlara g\u00f6re, rakam 100\u2019\u00fc ge\u00e7er, 150 dolara dayan\u0131r.<\/p>\n \u00dcnl\u00fc d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnce kurulu\u015fu Resmi Para ve Finansal Kurumlar Forumu\u2019ndan (OMFIF) Meghnad Desai, \u201cL\u00fcbnan, M\u0131s\u0131r ve Suriye’nin yan\u0131s\u0131ra di\u011fer Arap devletleri de kar\u0131\u015f\u0131r. Bu ko\u015fullar alt\u0131nda petrol fiyat\u0131 varil ba\u015f\u0131na 150 dolara yakla\u015fabilir\u201d dedi.<\/p>\n Bu durumda olu\u015facak kelebek etkisi de \u015fu: \u201cABD ve Avrupa’da enflasyon tekrar \u00e7ift haneli rakamlara \u00e7\u0131kar. K\u00fcresel durgunluk tehdidi, merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmesine ve niceliksel geni\u015fleme programlar\u0131n\u0131 yeniden ba\u015flatmas\u0131na neden olur.\u201d Ara\u015ft\u0131rma \u015firketi Capital Economics’ten Nicholas Farr da petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckseli\u015finin do\u011falgaza etkisine dikkat \u00e7ekti: \u201c\u0130ran destekli Hizbullah, \u0130srail’le L\u00fcbnan’dan kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 f\u00fcze ate\u015fine girebilir.<\/p>\n Bu, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmada yeni bir cephe a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 demektir. \u0130ran’\u0131n sava\u015fa \u00e7ekilmesi, enerji arz\u0131n\u0131 kesintiye u\u011fratarak ve petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fckselterek b\u00fcy\u00fck k\u00fcresel riskler yaratacakt\u0131r. LNG (S\u0131v\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f do\u011falgaz) ihracat\u0131nda kesinti olmas\u0131 durumunda do\u011falgaz fiyatlar\u0131 da etkilenebilir.\u201d<\/p>\n Petrol\u00fcn 150 dolara ula\u015fmas\u0131 i\u00e7in, piyasalara ham petrol ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n kesilmesi, muhtemelen d\u00fcnya arz\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 20’sinin g\u00fcnl\u00fck olarak akt\u0131\u011f\u0131 H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131’n\u0131n kapat\u0131lmas\u0131yla kesilmesi gerekecek. \u0130skandinav finansal hizmetler grubu SEB’in Ba\u015f Emtia Analisti Bjarne Schieldrop \u015funlar\u0131 s\u00f6yledi: “Korku, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n kontrolden \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 ve sonunda ger\u00e7ek arz kayb\u0131na yol a\u00e7mas\u0131…”<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n