{"id":5659,"date":"2023-10-09T06:22:23","date_gmt":"2023-10-09T03:22:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/egemhabertv.com\/?p=5659"},"modified":"2023-10-09T06:22:23","modified_gmt":"2023-10-09T03:22:23","slug":"tahvil-rallisi-bankalara-yeniden-hesap-yaptiriyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/egemhabertv.com\/?p=5659","title":{"rendered":"Tahvil rallisi bankalara yeniden hesap yapt\u0131r\u0131yor"},"content":{"rendered":"

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\u015eEBNEM TURHAN<\/strong><\/p>\n

T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin g\u00f6sterge tahvil faizleri se\u00e7im sonras\u0131nda geleneksel para politikalar\u0131na ge\u00e7i\u015fin de etkisiyle y\u00fckseli\u015f e\u011filiminde. Tahvil faizlerinde neredeyse 20 puana yakla\u015fan bir ralli ya\u015fand\u0131. Cumhurba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 se\u00e7imlerinin yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 may\u0131s ay\u0131nda y\u00fczde 9,07\u2019ye kadar gerileyen 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k g\u00f6sterge tahvil faizi \u015fu an y\u00fczde 26,51, 5 y\u0131ll\u0131k g\u00f6sterge tahvil faizi de haziran ba\u015f\u0131nda geriledi\u011fi y\u00fczde 11 seviyesine kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k son g\u00fcnlerde y\u00fczde 28,47 seviyesinde idi. H\u0131zla y\u00fckselen tahvil faizleri bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn reg\u00fclasyonlar nedeniyle zorunlu olarak tuttu\u011fu menkul k\u0131ymetlerdeki zarar seviyelerini de geriletiyor. \u015eimdi bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fc yeni bir tart\u0131\u015fman\u0131n e\u015fi\u011finde: Reg\u00fclasyonlara uymay\u0131p tahvil al\u0131m\u0131na m\u0131 y\u00f6nelecekler yoksa bu durum marj darald\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in zarar\u0131 azaltmas\u0131 nedeniyle faiz<\/a> yar\u0131\u015f\u0131nda frene mi basacaklar?<\/p>\n

G\u00f6sterge tahvil faizleri tek haneye gerilemi\u015fti<\/h2>\n

Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l a\u011fustosta d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz politikas\u0131 uygulan\u0131rken devreye al\u0131nan reg\u00fclasyonlarla kredi faiz s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131 ve TL mevduat ile KKM oranlar\u0131na g\u00f6re bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fcne menkul k\u0131ymet tesisi y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fckleri getirilmi\u015fti. Bu durum y\u00fcksek enflasyon ve 5 y\u0131ll\u0131k iflas risk primi CDS oranlar\u0131na ra\u011fmen g\u00f6sterge tahvil faizlerinin sert gerilemesine neden oldu ve tahvil faizleri tek haneye kadar indi. Bu Hazine\u2019nin olduk\u00e7a d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetten bor\u00e7lanmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flad\u0131. Ancak ekonomistler bu olu\u015fan fiyatlar\u0131n reg\u00fclasyonlardan kaynakland\u0131\u011f\u0131na dikkat \u00e7ekerek bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizli tahvil tutma zorunlulu\u011fu nedeniyle zarara u\u011frayaca\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret etti.<\/p>\n

10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizi cezaland\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 de\u011fil<\/h2>\n

Cumhurba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 se\u00e7imleri sonras\u0131nda yeni ekonomi<\/a> ve merkez bankas\u0131 y\u00f6netimi ise geleneksel politikalara d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f ad\u0131mlar\u0131 \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde politika faizinde y\u00fckseli\u015f uygulanan reg\u00fclasyonlarda ise sadele\u015fme yap\u0131ld\u0131. Politika faizi y\u00fczde 8,5\u2019ten y\u00fczde 30\u2019a \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131, mevduat i\u00e7in sadece KKM\u2019den TL mevduata d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm hedefi kald\u0131, kredi faizlerinde ise alt s\u0131n\u0131r kald\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131. Bu durum hem mevduat hem de kredi faizlerinde y\u00fckseli\u015fe neden oldu, tahvil faizleri de bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te 20 puana yakla\u015fan bir ralli ya\u015fad\u0131. 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k g\u00f6sterge tahvil faizi y\u00fczde 26,51\u2019e geldi, 5 y\u0131ll\u0131k g\u00f6sterge tahvil faizi ise y\u00fczde 28,47\u2019ye y\u00fckseldi. Ancak bu durumda bile hem politika faizi hem de g\u00f6sterge tahvil faizleri y\u00fczde 61,53\u2019l\u00fck y\u0131ll\u0131k t\u00fcketici enflasyonu oran\u0131n\u0131n olduk\u00e7a alt\u0131nda bulunuyor.<\/p>\n

Ancak baz\u0131 hesaplar\u0131n da yeniden yap\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fi finans<\/a> d\u00fcnyas\u0131nda tart\u0131\u015f\u0131lmaya ba\u015flad\u0131. Bilkent \u00dcniversitesi \u00d6\u011fretim \u00dcyesi Prof. Dr. Hakan Kara, 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k devlet i\u00e7 bor\u00e7lanma senetleri (D\u0130BS) faizlerinin geldi\u011fi noktan\u0131n art\u0131k pek cezaland\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131na dikkat \u00e7ekti. Kara \u015funlar\u0131 s\u00f6yledi: \u201cDolay\u0131s\u0131yla \u00f6zellikle k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bankalar TL mevduat d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fcklerini yerine getirmektense D\u0130BS almay\u0131 tercih edebilirler. Fakat b\u00fcy\u00fckler i\u00e7in ayn\u0131 durum s\u00f6z konusu olmayabilir \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fck bankalar y\u00fckl\u00fc miktarda tahvil al\u0131rsa tahvil faizleri yine sert bir \u015fekilde d\u00fc\u015febilir. Bu nedenle b\u00fcy\u00fck bankalar genel anlamda ilave tahvil tutmak yerine y\u00fcksek mevduat faizi vermeyi de tercih edebilirler. Genel olarak bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, bana g\u00f6re KKM\u2019den d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm gibi yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n uygulanmas\u0131nda tahvil tutma y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc yerine zorunlu kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k veya komisyon uygulanmas\u0131na ge\u00e7mek daha verimli olacakt\u0131r. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc tahvil tutma y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc oldu\u011fu s\u00fcrece yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 bu piyasaya gitmeye teredd\u00fct edecektir.\u201d<\/p>\n

Baz\u0131 ekonomistler ise oyun de\u011fi\u015ftirecek seviyeye hen\u00fcz ula\u015f\u0131lmad\u0131\u011f\u0131na dikkat \u00e7ekiyor. Bilgi veren bir ekonomist tahvil rallisi ya\u015fan\u0131rken ayn\u0131 anda bankalar\u0131n t\u00fcm fonlama yap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n da politika faizi, mevduat faizi, KKM\u2019de opsiyon primleri gibi 10-15-20 puan kayd\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ederek bankalar\u0131n \u2018faizi \u00e7ok iyi para kazanaca\u011f\u0131z\u2019 diyerek tahvil almad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 vurgulad\u0131. Reg\u00fclasyonlar\u0131n etkisinin s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc dile getiren ekonomist, ama faizlerde marj darald\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in eskiden bankalar 5 puan zarar yazacaksa \u015fimdi art\u0131k 3 puan zarar yazacaklar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Ayn\u0131 ekonomistin verdi\u011fi bilgiye g\u00f6re bu durum da bankalar\u0131n eylemlerinin g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc bir t\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrebilecek bir potansiyel ta\u015f\u0131yor. Ekonomist bu durumu \u015f\u00f6yle anlatt\u0131: \u201cBankalar art\u0131k TL mevduata y\u00fczde 50 vermezler de y\u00fczde 45 verebilirler. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc o da bir maliyet. Ba\u015fa ba\u015f hesaplay\u0131p gerekli optimizasyonu yap\u0131p bankalar yine minimum menkul k\u0131ymet tesis yapmak isteyecekler. Hen\u00fcz y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015fmedi. Y\u00f6n\u00fcn de\u011fi\u015febilmesi i\u00e7in tahvil faizlerinin enflasyona \u00e7ok yakla\u015fmas\u0131 gerekir. Bu durumun olu\u015fmas\u0131na da belki uzun aylar, hatta 1 y\u0131l var.\u201d<\/p>\n

Tahvil faizleri enflasyona yakla\u015fmad\u0131k\u00e7a zor<\/h2>\n

Menkul tesisini b\u0131rak\u0131p zorunlu kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k oranlar\u0131na y\u00fcklenmenin de kimse i\u00e7in olumlu bir sonu\u00e7 do\u011furmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yleyen ekonomist \u201cZorunlu kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k direkt bulunmas\u0131 gereken bir bor\u00e7lanma tutar\u0131. Bankalarda serbest tahvil kalmazsa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019ndan bor\u00e7 alamazlar. O noktadan \u00e7ok uza\u011f\u0131z. Hem menkul k\u0131ymet tutulmas\u0131n\u0131n faizlerin daha yava\u015f y\u00fckselmesi nedeniyle devlete de yarar\u0131 var. Menkul k\u0131ymet tesisini b\u0131rakal\u0131m zorunlu kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k yapal\u0131m demek hem Hazine\u2019ye hem de bankalara zarar verir. Daha yumu\u015fak ge\u00e7i\u015f olmal\u0131, ortodoksla\u015facaksak \u00f6nce her \u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fcn fiyat\u0131 do\u011fru noktalara gelmeli sonra makroihtiyati politikalar de\u011fi\u015ftirilebilir. Tahvil faizi y\u00fczde 28 ama enflasyon y\u00fczde 65 ise buna daha yakla\u015famad\u0131k demektir. Tahvil y\u00fczde 36 enflasyon y\u00fczde 40 olursa o zaman reg\u00fclasyonlardan vazge\u00e7mek de\u011fi\u015ftirmek d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclecektir. Zaten bu oranlara yakla\u015f\u0131nca 10 y\u0131l vadeli tahvile yabanc\u0131 giri\u015fi de beklenir ki bu da do\u011fru noktada oldu\u011fumuzu tescil eder\u201d diye konu\u015ftu.<\/p>\n

\u258cMerkez Bankas\u0131 21 Haziran\u2019dan bu yana alm\u0131yor<\/span><\/strong><\/h2>\n

Bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fc kaynaklar\u0131n\u0131n verdi\u011fi bilgiye g\u00f6re Merkez Bankas\u0131 da 21 Haziran\u2019dan bu yana ihaleyle tahvil al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 b\u0131rakt\u0131. Kaynaklar parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma i\u00e7in Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n ihaleyle al\u0131mlar\u0131 durdurdu\u011funu dile getirerek bu durumun da tahvil faizlerindeki y\u00fckseli\u015fi etkiledi\u011fini dile getirdi. Pandemi tedbirleri kapsam\u0131nda Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n tahvil al\u0131m ihalelerine ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 hat\u0131rlatan kaynaklar, \u00f6nceki Merkez Bankas\u0131 y\u00f6netiminin ise faizleri bask\u0131lamak i\u00e7in tahvil al\u0131m ihalelerine devam etti\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Ayn\u0131 kaynak yeni Merkez Bankas\u0131 y\u00f6netiminin ise tahvil al\u0131m ihalelerini b\u0131rakarak bilan\u00e7osundaki devlet tahvili portf\u00f6y\u00fcn\u00fc d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc vurgulad\u0131.<\/p>\n

Hazine bu 66.5 milyar lira i\u00e7, 14.9 milyar lira d\u0131\u015f bor\u00e7 \u00f6deyecek<\/span><\/strong><\/h2>\n

Hazine ve Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (HMB) \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki \u00fc\u00e7 ayl\u0131k d\u00f6neme ili\u015fkin i\u00e7 Bor\u00e7lanma Stratejisi a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. Buna g\u00f6re, ekim ay\u0131nda 66.5 milyar TL i\u00e7, 14.9 milyar TL tutar\u0131nda d\u0131\u015f bor\u00e7 servisi yap\u0131lacak. Ekim ay\u0131nda piyasaya yap\u0131lacak \u00f6demelerin tutar\u0131 58.2 milyar TL iken, kamu kurumlar\u0131na ise 8.2 milyar TL geri \u00f6deme yap\u0131lacak. Hazine ve Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131, ekim ay\u0131nda 63.6 milyar TL piyasadan ihale, 2.5 milyar TL do\u011frudan sat\u0131\u015flar ve 1.9 milyar TL\u2019si de kamuya sat\u0131\u015flar yoluyla olmak \u00fczere toplam 68 milyar TL bor\u00e7lanma \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Hazine bor\u00e7lanma ihaleleri ise ay\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc haftas\u0131nda yo\u011funla\u015facak. 16 Ekim\u2019de 12 ay vadeli kuponsuz devlet tahvilinin ve 5 y\u0131l vadeli sabit faizli devlet tahvilinin yeniden ihrac\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilecek. 17 Ekim\u2019de ise TLREF endeksli 4 y\u0131l vadeli tahvilin ilk ihrac\u0131 ihalesi var. 17 Ekim\u2019de 5 y\u0131l vadeli kira sertifikas\u0131n\u0131n do\u011frudan sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 ile 10 y\u0131l vadeli sabit faizli devlet tahvilinin de ilk ihrac\u0131 yap\u0131lacak. 23 Ekim\u2019de 2 y\u0131l vadeli sabit faizli tahvilin yeniden ihrac\u0131, 24 Ekim\u2019de ise T\u00dcFE\u2019ye endeksli 5 y\u0131l vadeli tahvil ile 7 y\u0131l vadeli de\u011fi\u015fken faizli tahvilin ilk ihra\u00e7lar\u0131 ihaleleri d\u00fczenlenecek.<\/p>\n

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[ad_1] \u015eEBNEM TURHAN T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin g\u00f6sterge tahvil faizleri se\u00e7im sonras\u0131nda geleneksel para politikalar\u0131na ge\u00e7i\u015fin de etkisiyle<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":5660,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5659","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/egemhabertv.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5659","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/egemhabertv.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/egemhabertv.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/egemhabertv.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/egemhabertv.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=5659"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/egemhabertv.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5659\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/egemhabertv.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/5660"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/egemhabertv.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=5659"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/egemhabertv.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=5659"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/egemhabertv.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=5659"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}