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Banka, Avrupa ve Orta Asya b\u00f6lgesi i\u00e7in haz\u0131rlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 Ekonomik G\u00fcncelleme Raporu’nu “Yava\u015f B\u00fcy\u00fcme, Artan Riskler” ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131yla yay\u0131mlad\u0131.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisine ili\u015fkin de\u011ferlendirmelerin de yer ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 raporda, dayan\u0131kl\u0131 t\u00fcketici talebi ve azalan politika belirsizli\u011fi nedeniyle \u00fclkenin ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmininin y\u00fczde 3,2’den 4,2’ye \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 bildirildi.<\/p>\n
Raporda, T\u00fcrk ekonomisinin gelecek y\u0131l y\u00fczde 3,1 ve 2025’te y\u00fczde 3,9 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin beklendi\u011fi kaydedildi.<\/p>\n
D\u00fcnya\u00a0Bankas\u0131, haziran ay\u0131ndaki tahminlerinde T\u00fcrk ekonomisinin 2024’te y\u00fczde 4,3, 2025’te 4,1 b\u00fcy\u00fcyece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Raporda, t\u00fcketimin \u00e7ift haneli oranlarda artmas\u0131 ve h\u00fck\u00fcmet harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesiyle T\u00fcrkiye’nin y\u00fczde 3,8’lik ikinci \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin de olumlu y\u00f6nde \u015fa\u015f\u0131rtt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ifade edildi.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez\u00a0Bankas\u0131’n\u0131n (TCMB) politika faizlerini may\u0131s ay\u0131ndan bu yana k\u00fcm\u00fclatif olarak 2 bin 150 baz puan art\u0131rmas\u0131yla para politikas\u0131nda daha fazla normalle\u015fmeye do\u011fru bir de\u011fi\u015fim ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret edilen raporda, se\u00e7imlerden bu yana bor\u00e7 ve hisse senedi portf\u00f6y\u00fc giri\u015flerinin h\u0131zlanarak d\u00f6viz rezervleri \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 hafifletti\u011fi aktar\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n
Avrupa ve Orta Asya b\u00f6lgesinin ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmininde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revizyon<\/strong><\/p>\n Raporda, Avrupa ve Orta Asya b\u00f6lgesindeki y\u00fckselen piyasalar ve geli\u015fmekte olan ekonomiler i\u00e7in 2023 y\u0131l\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmininin de y\u00fczde 1,4’ten 2,4’e \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 aktar\u0131ld\u0131. Raporda, b\u00fcy\u00fcmedeki h\u0131zlanman\u0131n sava\u015f\u0131n etkiledi\u011fi Ukrayna ve Orta Asya i\u00e7in tahminlerdeki iyile\u015fmeyi, T\u00fcrkiye’deki t\u00fcketici dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve Rusya’da askeri ve sosyal transferlere y\u00f6nelik kamu harcamalar\u0131nda kaydedilen art\u0131\u015f sayesinde beklenenden iyi b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi yans\u0131tt\u0131\u011f\u0131 da ifade edildi.<\/p>\n Raporda, Rusya ve Ukrayna d\u0131\u015far\u0131da tutuldu\u011funda, b\u00f6lgenin bu y\u0131l y\u00fczde 3 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin beklendi\u011fi, b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin Kovid-19 salg\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ncesi uzun vadeli ortalamalara g\u00f6re zay\u0131f kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 vurguland\u0131.<\/p>\n Genel olarak, Avrupa ve Orta Asya b\u00f6lgesindeki \u00fclkelerin yar\u0131s\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin bu y\u0131l 2022’ye g\u00f6re daha yava\u015f olmas\u0131 veya \u00e7ok az de\u011fi\u015fiklik g\u00f6stermesinin beklendi\u011fine i\u015faret edilen raporda, 2024-25 d\u00f6neminde, b\u00f6lgenin en b\u00fcy\u00fck ticaret orta\u011f\u0131 olan Avrupa Birli\u011fi’ndeki zay\u0131f b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin, y\u00fcksek enflasyon, s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fan finansal ko\u015fullar ve Rusya-Ukrayna Sava\u015f\u0131’n\u0131n yay\u0131lma etkileri sebebiyle b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fczde 2,6 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc bildirildi.<\/p>\n A\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riskler g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc g\u00f6lgeliyor<\/strong><\/p>\n Raporda, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risklerin Avrupa ve Orta Asya b\u00f6lgesindeki y\u00fckselen piyasalar ve geli\u015fmekte olan ekonomiler i\u00e7in g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc g\u00f6lgeledi\u011fi ifade edilerek, k\u00fcresel emtia piyasalar\u0131ndaki y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131k ve enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki h\u0131zl\u0131 art\u0131\u015f kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda enflasyonun y\u00fcksek seviyelerde kalmaya devam edebilece\u011fi kaydedildi.<\/p>\n D\u00fcnya\u00a0Bankas\u0131’n\u0131n raporunda, k\u00fcresel finansal piyasalar\u0131n, s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fan finansman ko\u015fullar\u0131 sebebiyle daha oynak ve k\u0131s\u0131tlay\u0131c\u0131 hale gelebilece\u011finin alt\u0131 \u00e7izildi.<\/p>\n Raporda, Ukrayna ekonomisinin, 2022 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 29,1’lik daralmadan sonra, daha istikrarl\u0131 elektrik temini, artan kamu harcamalar\u0131, devam eden don\u00f6r destekleri, daha iyi ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen hasat ve baz\u0131 ihracatlar\u0131n \u00fclkenin bat\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131 \u00fczerinden yeniden y\u00f6nlendirilmesi sayesinde bu y\u0131l y\u00fczde 3,5 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin beklendi\u011fi belirtildi.<\/p>\n Rusya’da, artan kamu harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n ve diren\u00e7li t\u00fcketimin, 2023’te y\u00fczde 1,6’l\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fcme sa\u011flamas\u0131, kapasite k\u0131s\u0131tlar\u0131 ve yava\u015flayan t\u00fcketici talebi sebebiyle b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin zay\u0131flayarak 2024’te y\u00fczde 1,3’e, 2025’te 0,9’a inmesinin \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc de aktar\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n