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Rusya’n\u0131n 24 \u015eubat 2022\u2019de ba\u015flatt\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u015fgali, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck bu\u011fday ihracat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131ndan biri olan Ukrayna’n\u0131n ihracat\u0131n\u0131 sekteye u\u011fratmaya devam ediyor\u2026 Bu\u011fday fiyat\u0131, Rusya’daki ola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc mahsul nedeniyle neredeyse \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131l\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine geriledi; temmuz ay\u0131n\u0131n sonundan bu yana da 5\u2019te 1\u2019inden fazla d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/span><\/p>\n Rabobank’\u0131n K\u0131demli Emtia Analisti Michael Magdovitz, ya\u015fananlar\u0131 Financial Times gazetesine \u015f\u00f6yle de\u011ferlendirdi: “Temelinde Rusya’n\u0131n sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 sonucunda bu\u011fday fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6rd\u00fck.\u201d \u00d6nce bir rakamlara bakal\u0131m:<\/p>\n -Rusya’n\u0131n Karadeniz limanlar\u0131 bu\u011fday ihracat\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 70’ini ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftiriyor ve bu da onu k\u00fcresel tah\u0131l tedariki i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir arter haline getiriyor.<\/p>\n – Ukrayna, i\u015fgalden \u00f6nceki 2021-22 sezonunda k\u00fcresel bu\u011fday ihracat\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 9.2’sini ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirmi\u015fti. S&P’nin tahminlerine g\u00f6re bu oran 2023-24 hasat sezonunda y\u00fczde 6.4’e d\u00fc\u015fecek. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck ihracat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 olan Rusya, 2021-22’de k\u00fcresel ihracat\u0131n y\u00fczde 15.9\u2019unu kar\u015f\u0131lam\u0131\u015ft\u0131 ve dahas\u0131 2023-24 hasat sezonunda bu oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 22.5’e \u00e7\u0131kartacak gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n -Bu durum bu y\u0131l tekrar artabilir. S&P Global Commodity Insights’\u0131n tahminlerine g\u00f6re Rusya, 2022’de 46 milyon ton bu\u011fday ihra\u00e7 etti ve bu y\u0131l da 47 milyon ton bu\u011fday ihra\u00e7 edece\u011fini tahmin ediyor. S&P Global’in ba\u015f tar\u0131m ekonomisti Paul Hughes, “50 milyon ihracat yaparlarsa, \u015fa\u015f\u0131rmam” derken; Magdovitz bu durum i\u00e7in de “Ukrayna’n\u0131n kayb\u0131 Rusya’n\u0131n kazanc\u0131 oldu\u201d diye konu\u015ftu.<\/p>\n Peki bu\u011fday fiyatlar\u0131 artar m\u0131? Analistlere g\u00f6re, \u201cEvet, sava\u015f\u0131n Karadeniz’e yay\u0131lmas\u0131 ve y\u00fcksek seviyedeki hedge fon bahisleri yeni bir y\u00fckseli\u015fe neden olabilir.\u201d Ukrayna Sava\u015f\u0131, bu\u011fday piyasas\u0131n\u0131 saniye saniye de\u011fi\u015ftirebiliyor. \u0130\u015fte size 4 \u00f6rnek:<\/p>\n -lK\u00fcresel tah\u0131l fiyatlar\u0131, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l Rusya’n\u0131n Ukrayna’y\u0131 i\u015fgalinin ard\u0131ndan bushel ba\u015f\u0131na 13 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131k\u0131p zirve yapt\u0131, sonra yar\u0131dan fazla d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. l Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz y\u0131l, BM ve T\u00fcrkiye’nin arac\u0131l\u0131k etti\u011fi bir anla\u015fma, yakla\u015f\u0131k 33 milyon ton tah\u0131l\u0131n Ukrayna’dan sevk edilmesine izin vererek fiyatlar\u0131n yeniden d\u00fc\u015fmesine yard\u0131mc\u0131 oldu.<\/p>\n – Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc, Ukrayna’ya giden bir kargo gemisinin Karadeniz’de bir may\u0131na \u00e7arpmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan vadeli i\u015flem fiyatlar\u0131 ilk ba\u015fta y\u00fczde 2’den fazla artt\u0131, bushel ba\u015f\u0131na 5.91 dolara \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131, sonra da geriledi.<\/p>\n -Chicago’da bu\u011fday fiyatlar\u0131, temmuz ay\u0131nda Moskova’n\u0131n Karadeniz’de faaliyet g\u00f6steren t\u00fcm gemilerin hedef al\u0131nabilece\u011fini s\u00f6ylemesiyle k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli\u011fine 7.77 dolara kadar y\u00fckseldi ve ayn\u0131 ay\u0131n sonunda Rusya’n\u0131n Ukrayna tah\u0131l limanlar\u0131na sald\u0131r\u0131 ba\u015flatmas\u0131yla y\u00fczde 12 artt\u0131. Son olarak emtia uzmanlar\u0131, fiyatlar\u0131n u\u00e7u\u015fa ge\u00e7memesi konusunda Kiev y\u00f6netimine m\u00fcte\u015fekkir. FT\u2019ye konu\u015fan uzmanlara g\u00f6re, \u201cUkrayna \u015fu ana kadar misilleme yapmama konusunda b\u00fcy\u00fck bir itidal g\u00f6sterdi. Misilleme olursa, fiyatlar \u00e7ok daha y\u00fcksek olacakt\u0131r.\u201d<\/p>\n Kremlin: Tah\u0131l koridoru anla\u015fmas\u0131nda ilerleme yok<\/strong><\/p>\n Kremlin, Karadeniz Tah\u0131l Koridoru Anla\u015fmas\u0131’nda bir ilerleme kaydedilmedi\u011fini ve Rusya Devlet Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Vladimir Putin ile Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Tayyip Erdo\u011fan aras\u0131nda takvime ba\u011flanm\u0131\u015f bir g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fme plan\u0131n\u0131n bulunmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131.<\/p>\n Rusya, Ukrayna tah\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ge\u00e7en y\u0131ldan bu yana Karadeniz \u00fczerinden g\u00fcvenli \u015fekilde ta\u015f\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flayan tah\u0131l anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 Temmuz’da ask\u0131ya ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Erdo\u011fan, Putin ile Rusya’n\u0131n Karadeniz k\u0131y\u0131s\u0131ndaki So\u00e7i kentinde Eyl\u00fcl ba\u015f\u0131nda yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmenin ard\u0131ndan Karadeniz tah\u0131l anla\u015fmas\u0131na k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede geri d\u00f6n\u00fclece\u011fine inand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylemi\u015fti.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n