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Mehmet KAYA<\/strong><\/p>\n T\u00fcrkiye Ekonomi<\/a> Politikalar\u0131 Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Vakf\u0131 (TEPAV) b\u00fcnyesinde olu\u015fturulan TEPAV Makroekonomi \u00c7al\u0131\u015fma Grubu taraf\u0131ndan yay\u0131mlanan Para Politikas\u0131 De\u011ferlendirme Notunda, \u00f6n y\u00fcklemeli politikalar \u00f6nerildi ve faizin y\u00fczde 33\u2019\u00fcn \u00fcst\u00fcne ta\u015f\u0131nmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fi belirtildi. Bilgi notunda, May\u0131s 2024\u2019te enflasyonun y\u00fczde 70\u2019lere do\u011fru \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki tahminlere vurgu yap\u0131larak, beklenti anketlerinde de 2024 i\u00e7in tahminlerin y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fu hat\u0131rlat\u0131ld\u0131. May\u0131s ay\u0131ndaki y\u00fczde 70\u2019lerde olu\u015facak y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyonun, 2024 sonunda y\u00fczde 33\u2019e indirilmesine y\u00f6nelik risklere de\u011finilen \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmada, bu hedefin tutmas\u0131n\u0131n inand\u0131r\u0131c\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n sa\u011flanmas\u0131-beklentilerin k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131yla olabilece\u011fi, bunun i\u00e7in de \u00f6n y\u00fcklemeli politikalar uygulanmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fi savunuldu.<\/p>\n De\u011ferlendirme notunun mevcut g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcne y\u00f6nelik b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin D\u00fcnyan\u0131n en y\u00fcksek enflasyonlar\u0131ndan birine sahip oldu\u011fu, G20 \u00fclkeleri i\u00e7inde de 13 \u00fclke ile birlikte enflasyonu 2021 d\u00fczeyinde seyretti\u011fi hat\u0131rlat\u0131ld\u0131. \u201cOtoritelere g\u00f6re May\u0131s 2024\u2019e kadar enflasyon y\u00fczde 70\u2019e yakla\u015facak, yaz aylar\u0131ndan ba\u015flayarak baz etkisinin de etkisiyle, h\u0131zla gerileyerek y\u0131l sonunda y\u00fczde 33\u2019e d\u00fc\u015fecek, gerilemesini daha sonra da s\u00fcrd\u00fcrerek 2026 y\u0131l\u0131nda tek hanelere inecek\u201d denilen \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma notunda, beklenti anketlerinde 2024 enflasyon beklentisinin y\u00fczde 67,2 oldu\u011fu hat\u0131rlat\u0131larak, \u201cBu durumda para politikas\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan temel soru, 2024 ortalar\u0131nda y\u00fczde 70 civar\u0131nda bir d\u00fczeyde tepe noktas\u0131na ula\u015facak enflasyonun 2024 sonunda y\u00fczde 33\u2019e nas\u0131l d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclece\u011fi ve daha sonraki d\u00f6nemde de bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filiminin nas\u0131l devam ettirilece\u011fi\u201d ifadesine yer verildi.<\/p>\n TEPAV notunda, kur istikrar\u0131, y\u00fcksek enflasyon beklentisinin k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131, cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n kontrol\u00fcne y\u00f6nelik bir dizi \u00f6nlem s\u0131raland\u0131. Bunlar aras\u0131nda, \u00f6zellikle beklentilerin k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 ve TL\u2019nin g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi i\u00e7in \u00f6n y\u00fcklemeli olarak faizin y\u00fczde 33\u2019\u00fcn \u00fcst\u00fcne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fi savunuldu.<\/p>\n TEPAV notunda, hedefle uyumlu beklenti ve kur istikrar\u0131na ula\u015fmak i\u00e7in T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin risk priminin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclmesi, TL finansal varl\u0131klar\u0131n d\u00f6viz<\/a> cinsi varl\u0131klara g\u00f6re daha cazip hale getirilmesi gerekti\u011fi vurguland\u0131. Bunu sa\u011flamak i\u00e7in ise se\u00e7im ve deprem nedeniyle artan b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclmesi politikas\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131ya uygulanmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fi belirtildi. TEPAV\u2019\u0131n hen\u00fcz yay\u0131mlanmam\u0131\u015f \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131nda 2024 b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n GSYH\u2019ye oran\u0131n\u0131n OVP hedefi olan y\u00fczde 5,9\u2019un \u00fczerinde olmas\u0131 riski bulundu\u011fu belirtildi.<\/p>\n Beklentilerin k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 ve kur istikrar\u0131 i\u00e7in cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n normal yollardan finansman\u0131n\u0131n sa\u011flanmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fi de belirtilen TEPAV notunda, \u201cCari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n azalt\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131sa vadede temel yolu b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi potansiyel d\u00fczeyinin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karmamaktan ge\u00e7iyor. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede \u00f6zellikle kredi art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlayan \u00f6nlemler \u00f6nem kazan\u0131yor. Normal yollardan finansmandan kas\u0131t ise, s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir bir \u015fekilde portf\u00f6y yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n, kredilerin ve do\u011frudan yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye akmas\u0131n\u0131n sa\u011flanmas\u0131. Hem 2022\u2019de hem de 2023\u2019\u00fcn ilk yedi ay\u0131nda, bu yollarla sa\u011flanan finansman\u0131n cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 finanse etmekten uzak kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve bu olgunun d\u00f6viz kuruna yukar\u0131ya do\u011fru b\u00fcy\u00fck bir bask\u0131 yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 dikkate almak gerekiyor\u201d denildi.<\/p>\n Bu politikalar\u0131n uygulanmas\u0131 ve enflasyonun d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclmesi i\u00e7in, i\u00e7 talebin k\u0131s\u0131lmas\u0131, kur istikrar\u0131n\u0131n tesisi ve hedeflerin \u00e7ok \u00fczerinde olan mevcut enflasyon bekleyi\u015flerinin k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n ana \u00e7er\u00e7eveyi olu\u015fturdu\u011fu belirtilen TEPAV \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131nda, para politikas\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fi savunulan \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmada \u015fu yorum yap\u0131ld\u0131:<\/p>\n \u201c12 ay sonras\u0131n\u0131n enflasyon bekleyi\u015fleri y\u00fczde 45 civar\u0131 iken, politika faizi y\u00fczde 25. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, para politikas\u0131n\u0131n mevcut duruma g\u00f6re daha s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 ve bu s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fman\u0131n bir an \u00f6nce yap\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fi \u00e7ok a\u00e7\u0131k olarak g\u00f6z\u00fck\u00fcyor. S\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmadan kas\u0131t -bir tahmin hatas\u0131 pay\u0131n\u0131 da dikkate alarak- 2024 sonu enflasyon hedefinin \u00fczerinde ve 12 ay sonras\u0131n\u0131n piyasa enflasyon bekleyi\u015fleri ile uyumlu bir politika faizinin belirlenmesi. Ancak burada ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan temel bir risk var. \u015eu: Yaz aylar\u0131na do\u011fru y\u00fczde 70 civar\u0131na y\u00fckselmesi beklenen enflasyonun alt\u0131 ay sonra y\u00fczde 33 art\u0131 hata pay\u0131 d\u00fczeyine nas\u0131l d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclece\u011fi \u015f\u00fcphesinin yayg\u0131nl\u0131\u011f\u0131. Ne yap\u0131lmal\u0131? Eyl\u00fcl-Ekim aylar\u0131nda politika faizi \u00f6nden y\u00fcklemeli olarak y\u00fczde 33\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmal\u0131, bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te, politika kararlar\u0131n\u0131n enflasyon e\u011filimi ve enflasyon bekleyi\u015fleri \u00fczerindeki etkileri takip edilerek daha sonraki ad\u0131mlar belirlenmeli. Zira, Merkez Bankas\u0131 piyasa akt\u00f6rlerini kararl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na ikna edebilirse enflasyon e\u011filimi yava\u015flayabilir ve enflasyon bekleyi\u015fleri d\u00fc\u015febilir, \u00e7ok daha y\u00fcksek faiz<\/a> art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 gere\u011fi de azalabilir.\u201d<\/p>\n TEPAV \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131nda, Temmuz ve A\u011fustos aylar\u0131nda T\u00dc\u0130K\u2019in \u00f6nceki aylar\u0131n tersine enflasyon hesab\u0131n\u0131n di\u011fer baz\u0131 kurumlar\u0131n hesaplar\u0131na yakla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n olumlu etkisine dikkat \u00e7ekilerek, \u201cBu s\u00fcrecin devam\u0131n\u0131 do\u011frudan sa\u011flayacak as\u0131l ad\u0131m ise T\u00dc\u0130K\u2019in kurumsal yap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k y\u00f6n\u00fcnde de\u011fi\u015ftirilmesi olacakt\u0131r. Benzer bir ad\u0131m TCMB a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan da at\u0131l\u0131rsa T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin risk priminin daha da h\u0131zl\u0131 d\u00fc\u015fmesi beklenir\u201d denildi<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\nMevcut g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm<\/strong><\/h2>\n
\u201cPolitika \u00f6nerisi: B\u00fcy\u00fcme s\u0131n\u0131rlanmal\u0131, b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 kontrol edilmeli, MB ve T\u00dc\u0130K\u2019in ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirilmeli, TL faizi daha cazip olmal\u0131\u201d<\/strong><\/h2>\n
\u201cPara politikas\u0131 daha da s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmal\u0131, Merkez Bankas\u0131 ve T\u00dc\u0130K\u2019in ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 risk primini daha h\u0131zl\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcr\u201d<\/strong><\/h2>\n