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Emre ERG\u00dcL<\/strong><\/p>\n Ekonomik Kalk\u0131nma ve \u0130\u015fbirli\u011fi \u00d6rg\u00fct\u00fc (OECD) ile Birle\u015fmi\u015f Milletler G\u0131da ve Tar\u0131m \u00d6rg\u00fct\u00fc (FAO), \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 10 y\u0131lda tar\u0131m emtialar\u0131 ile su \u00fcr\u00fcnleri d\u00fcnyas\u0131n\u0131 bekleyen riskler ve belirsizlikler ile bu d\u00fcnyan\u0131n beklentilerini anlatt\u0131\u011f\u0131 merakla beklenen raporunu yay\u0131nlad\u0131. Uluslararas\u0131 emtia kurulu\u015flar\u0131 ve iki \u00f6rg\u00fcte \u00fcye \u00fclkelerden gelen gelen girdilerle haz\u0131rlanan \u201cTar\u0131m G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm 2023- 2032\u201d adl\u0131 raporda, 24 \u015eubat 2022 tarihinde ba\u015flayan Ukrayna Sava\u015f\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n En b\u00fcy\u00fck dert, ba\u015fta tah\u0131l olmak \u00fczere t\u00fcm tar\u0131msal \u00fcr\u00fcnlerin \u00fcretim ve ula\u015ft\u0131rma maliyetlerini etkiledi\u011finden dolay\u0131 sava\u015f\u0131n ne kadar s\u00fcrece\u011fi tar\u0131m d\u00fcnyas\u0131nda en b\u00fcy\u00fck soru i\u015faretini olu\u015fturuyor. OECD ve FAO da i\u015fte bu y\u00fczden tar\u0131msal girdi fiyatlar\u0131nda son 2 y\u0131lda ya\u015fanan art\u0131\u015fa dikkat \u00e7ekiyor: \u201cBu art\u0131\u015f, k\u00fcresel g\u0131da g\u00fcvenli\u011fine ili\u015fkin endi\u015feleri art\u0131rd\u0131.\u201d Rapora g\u00f6re, 2023 y\u0131l\u0131nda piyasalar\u0131n ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 en b\u00fcy\u00fck endi\u015fe, artan g\u00fcbre maliyetlerinin g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131na neden olmas\u0131yla ilgiliydi.<\/p>\n Ana minarel g\u00fcbrelerin maliyetlerini di\u011fer \u00fcretim girdilerinden ay\u0131ran Aglink-Cosimo \u00fcretim verimi modellemesine ba\u015fvurarak, bir senaryo analiz haz\u0131rlayan OECD ve FAO, g\u00fcbre fiyatlar\u0131ndaki her y\u00fczde 1\u2019lik art\u0131\u015fa kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k tar\u0131msal emtia fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 0.2 oran\u0131nda artaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fcnde bulunuyor. Senaryo, g\u00fcbre ile tar\u0131msal emtia aras\u0131ndaki ba\u011flant\u0131ya odaklansa da enerji, tohum, i\u015f\u00e7ilik ve makine fiyatlar\u0131ndaki dalgalanmalar\u0131n da g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 etkileyece\u011fini hat\u0131rlatmada yarar var.<\/p>\n OECD-FAO, raporun \u00f6zet b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde Uluslararas\u0131 Para Fonu\u2019nun (IMF) Ekim 2022\u2019de yay\u0131nlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u201cD\u00fcnya Ekonomik G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc\u201d adl\u0131 raporuna dikkat \u00e7ekiyor. \u201cGelecek 10 y\u0131l i\u00e7ince beklenen ortalama ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme y\u00fczde 2.7\u2019den 2.6\u2019ya d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n \u00c7in\u2019in n\u00fcfusu da 2022 itibar\u0131yla azalacak. Enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n 2023\u2019te d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fi ve ard\u0131ndan 2032\u2019ye kadar yava\u015f bir art\u0131\u015fa ge\u00e7ece\u011fi varsay\u0131lmakta.\u201d \u0130\u015fte bu noktada OECD ve FAO, Ukrayna Sava\u015f\u0131\u2019na yine g\u00f6nderme yap\u0131yor ve sava\u015f\u0131n s\u00fcresi kestirilemedi\u011fi i\u00e7in b\u00f6lgede orta vadeli planlar\u0131n yap\u0131alamad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor: \u201cSava\u015f g\u0131da, enerji ve girdi fiyatlar\u0131nda belirsizlik yaratmaya devam ediyor.<\/p>\n Sava\u015f\u0131n ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131nda, tah\u0131l ve g\u00fcbre stokunun azalmas\u0131 k\u00fcresel pazarlar i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fck bir endi\u015fe kayna\u011f\u0131yd\u0131.\u00a0Bir y\u0131l sonra, Karadeniz Tah\u0131l Giri\u015fimi’nin y\u00fcr\u00fcrl\u00fc\u011fe girmesi ve ard\u0131ndan geni\u015fletilmesi sayesinde tedarik sorunlar\u0131 iyile\u015fti. Rusya’n\u0131n Ukrayna’ya kar\u015f\u0131 sava\u015f\u0131, tar\u0131msal emtia ticaretini, \u00f6zellikle de Ukrayna’n\u0131n ihracat\u0131n\u0131 ve fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 etkiliyor.<\/p>\n \u00a0Temmuz 2022’de kabul edilen Karadeniz Tah\u0131l Giri\u015fimi ve Avrupa Birli\u011fi-Ukrayna Dayan\u0131\u015fma Yollar\u0131, k\u00fcresel g\u0131da g\u00fcvenli\u011fini desteklemek i\u00e7in ticaretin yeniden kurulmas\u0131na yard\u0131mc\u0131 oldu.\u00a0Temel tahminler, iyi i\u015fleyen, \u015feffaf ve kurallara dayal\u0131 \u00e7ok tarafl\u0131 bir ticaret sisteminin kritik \u00f6neminin alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7iziyor.\u00a0 \u0130hracat yasaklar\u0131 fiyat belirsizliklerinin olumsuz etkisini ve fiyatlar\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor.\u201d<\/p>\n Raporun en ilgin\u00e7 b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc ise tar\u0131msal emtialar\u0131n y\u0131ld\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 10 y\u0131lda parlayacak olaca\u011f\u0131na dikkat \u00e7ekmesi\u2026\u201cK\u00fcresel g\u0131da t\u00fcketimi, n\u00fcfus ve ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na d\u00fc\u015fen gelir art\u0131\u015f\u0131nda \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen yava\u015flama nedeniyle \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 10 y\u0131lda y\u00fczde 1.3 oran\u0131nda artaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor\u201d denilen raporun \u00f6zet b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc \u015f\u00f6yle devam ediyor: \u201cTar\u0131msal \u00fcr\u00fcnlerin ikinci en \u00f6nemli kullan\u0131m\u0131 hayvan yemi ve giderek artan \u015fekilde su \u00fcr\u00fcnleri yeti\u015ftiricili\u011fidir.<\/p>\n D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck ve orta gelirli \u00fclkelerde hayvanc\u0131l\u0131k \u00fcretiminde beklenen h\u0131zl\u0131 geni\u015fleme ve yo\u011funla\u015fma, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 10 y\u0131lda yem talebinin h\u0131zla artmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7acak. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, y\u00fcksek gelirli \u00fclkelerde ve \u00c7in de dahil olmak \u00fczere baz\u0131 \u00fcst orta gelirli \u00fclkelerde, hayvanc\u0131l\u0131k \u00fcretimindeki daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve artan yemleme verimlili\u011fi, son 10 y\u0131la k\u0131yasla yem talebindeki b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin daha yava\u015f olmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7acakt\u0131r.\u201d<\/p>\n OECD, 14 Aral\u0131k 1960\u2019da imzalanan Paris Anla\u015fmas\u0131\u2019na dayan\u0131larak, 1961\u2019de kurulmu\u015f uluslararas\u0131 bir ekonomi \u00f6rg\u00fct\u00fcd\u00fcr. Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n Marshall Plan\u0131 \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde yeniden in\u015faas\u0131 i\u00e7in kurulan \u00f6rg\u00fct, asl\u0131nda 1948 y\u0131l\u0131nda kurulan Avrupa Ekonomik \u0130\u015fbirli\u011fi \u00d6rg\u00fct\u00fc’n\u00fcn (OECD) do\u011frudan miras\u00e7\u0131s\u0131d\u0131r. FAO da d\u00fcnyada a\u00e7l\u0131\u011f\u0131 yok etmek ve beslenme \u015fartlar\u0131n\u0131 iyile\u015ftirmek amac\u0131yla 1943\u2019te kuruldu; 1946\u2019da Birle\u015fmi\u015f Milletler\u2019in uzmanl\u0131k kurulu\u015fu haline geldi.<\/p>\n T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de hayvansal \u00fcr\u00fcnlerde ilave \u00fcretim bekleniyor<\/strong><\/p>\n OECD ve FAO, 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k de\u011ferlendirme raporu 11 b\u00f6l\u00fcmden olu\u015fuyor: \u201cPiyasalar\u201d, \u201cB\u00f6lgeler\u201d, \u201cHububat\u201d, \u201cYa\u011fl\u0131 Tohum\u201d, \u201c\u015eeker\u201d, \u201cEt\u201d, \u201cS\u00fct \u00dcr\u00fcnleri\u201d ,\u201cBal\u0131k\u201d, \u201cBiyoyak\u0131tlar\u201d,\u201dPamuk\u201d ve \u201cDi\u011fer \u00dcr\u00fcnler.\u201d Bu 11 b\u00f6l\u00fcmde T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin ismi en \u00e7ok ikinci b\u00f6l\u00fcmde, \u201cB\u00f6lgeler\u201dde \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n Avrupa ve Orta Asya\u2019n\u0131n anlat\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 b\u00f6l\u00fcmde, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin 2032\u2019ye kadarki s\u00fcre\u00e7te \u00f6zellikle tar\u0131m ve bal\u0131k \u00fcretiminde \u00f6nde olaca\u011f\u0131na dikkat \u00e7ekiliyor. OECD ve FAO\u2019nun ortak raporuna g\u00f6re, 2020- 22 temel d\u00f6nemiyle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, tar\u0131m ve bal\u0131k \u00fcretiminin net de\u011ferinin 2032 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar yaln\u0131zca y\u00fczde 7 artmas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n \u201cBu, ge\u00e7mi\u015fte g\u00f6zlemlenen oran\u0131n yar\u0131s\u0131ndan daha az. Bu, Orta Asya’da y\u00fczde 22 ve Do\u011fu Avrupa’da y\u00fczde 11’lik bir geni\u015fleme anlam\u0131na geliyor\u201d denilen rapor \u015f\u00f6yle devam ediyor: \u201cBat\u0131 Avrupa’n\u0131n \u00fcretimi, mevcut seviyelere k\u0131yasla 2032’de y\u00fczde 2’den daha az bir art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6sterecektir.<\/p>\n Ukrayna’n\u0131n 2032 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar tarihi \u00fcretim kapasitesine ula\u015faca\u011f\u0131 varsay\u0131l\u0131rken, toparlanma yava\u015f oluyor. Do\u011fu Avrupa’daki \u00fcretim art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131ras\u0131yla y\u00fczde 26 ve y\u00fczde 9 ile T\u00fcrkiye ve Rusya’n\u0131n \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n Kazakistan, Orta Asya’daki b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin neredeyse \u00fc\u00e7te birini olu\u015fturuyor. Rusya’da b\u00fcy\u00fcme bitkisel sekt\u00f6r taraf\u0131ndan desteklenirken, T\u00fcrkiye ve Kazakistan’da hem bitkisel hem de hayvansal \u00fcr\u00fcnlerden \u00f6nemli miktarda ilave \u00fcretim bekleniyor.\u201d<\/p>\n Bu\u011fday \u00fcretiminde 3 \u00fclke b\u00fcy\u00fcyecek: T\u00fcrkiye, Rusya, Kazakistan<\/strong><\/p>\n Raporun en \u00f6nemli b\u00f6l\u00fcmlerinden birini de bitkisel \u00fcretim olu\u015fturuyor. Tah\u0131l ve ya\u011fl\u0131 tohumlar\u0131n \u00fcretiminde art\u0131\u015f ya\u015fanaca\u011f\u0131 ve bu art\u0131\u015f\u0131n \u00f6zellikle Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n do\u011fusunda olaca\u011f\u0131na dikkat \u00e7ekilen raporda \u00fc\u00e7 \u00fclke, T\u00fcrkiye, Rusya ve Kazakistan, \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor: \u201c\u00d6zellikle Rusya’n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 10 y\u0131lda m\u0131s\u0131r (Y\u00fczde 24), bu\u011fday (Y\u00fczde 14), soya fasulyesi (Y\u00fczde 32) ve di\u011fer ya\u011fl\u0131 tohumlarda (Y\u00fczde 19) g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n Rusya’n\u0131n 2032 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar b\u00f6lgedeki soya fasulyesi \u00fcretiminin y\u00fczde 44’\u00fcn\u00fc, di\u011fer ya\u011fl\u0131 tohumlar\u0131n y\u00fczde 28’ini ve bu\u011fday\u0131n y\u00fczde 29’unu kar\u015f\u0131lamas\u0131 bekleniyor. Verim art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n da y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fczde 1’i a\u015fmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Bu\u011fday ve m\u0131s\u0131r i\u00e7in bu oran, ya\u011fl\u0131 tohumlar i\u00e7in yaln\u0131zca y\u00fczde 1’in \u00e7ok az alt\u0131ndad\u0131r.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cRusya’n\u0131n yan\u0131s\u0131ra, T\u00fcrkiye ve Kazakistan’da da 2032 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar s\u0131ras\u0131yla y\u00fczde 19 ve y\u00fczde 29 oran\u0131nda bu\u011fday \u00fcretiminde kayda de\u011fer bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme bekleniyor. Tarihi art\u0131\u015flara b\u00fcy\u00fck katk\u0131 sa\u011flayan Ukrayna’da, devam eden sava\u015ftan uzun s\u00fcre toparlanma, gelecekteki b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentilerini s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor.\u201d<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n