{"id":4150,"date":"2023-09-18T00:23:57","date_gmt":"2023-09-17T21:23:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/egemhabertv.com\/?p=4150"},"modified":"2023-09-18T00:23:57","modified_gmt":"2023-09-17T21:23:57","slug":"sans-sohbetleri-gercek-hayati-kayda-gecirecek-hamle","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/egemhabertv.com\/?p=4150","title":{"rendered":"\u015eans Sohbetleri: Ger\u00e7ek hayat\u0131 kayda ge\u00e7irecek hamle&#8230;"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> [ad_1]<br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<p>\u00a0<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i.ekonomim.com\/storage\/files\/images\/2022\/07\/22\/sans-lZSB.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"158\"\/><span style=\"font-size: 1.125rem;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><strong>G\u00fclda\u011f<\/strong>: Avrupa <a title=\"ekonomi\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ekonomim.com\/ekonomi\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Ekonomi<\/a> Bas\u0131n\u0131 Federasyonu\u2019nun toplant\u0131s\u0131 i\u00e7in Dublin\u2019deyim. G\u00fcndeme sen ba\u015fla&#8230;<\/p>\n<p><strong>A\u011fao\u011flu<\/strong>: Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131&#8217;ndan 25 baz puanl\u0131k bir faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 geldi. \u2018Yapt\u0131k yapaca\u011f\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 bundan sonra bekleyece\u011fiz\u2019 yorumuyla birlikte <a title=\"euro\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ekonomim.com\/finans\/doviz\/eur-trl-avro-turk-lirasi\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Euro<\/a>&#8216;yu a\u015fa\u011f\u0131ya \u00e7ekti.<\/p>\n<p><strong>G\u00fclda\u011f<\/strong>: Daha a\u015fa\u011f\u0131ya gelir mi?<\/p>\n<p><strong>A\u011fao\u011flu<\/strong>: 1,0610 kritik e\u015fiklerinden birisi. \u015eimdilik alt\u0131na gelmeyece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. Fed&#8217;i bekler.<\/p>\n<p><strong>G\u00fclda\u011f<\/strong>: Bu hafta piyasan\u0131n bekledi\u011fi iki \u00f6nemli olaydan biri Fed&#8230;<\/p>\n<p><strong>A\u011fao\u011flu<\/strong>: \u00d6b\u00fcr\u00fc de 21&#8217;indeki bizim Merkez Bankas\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n PPK&#8217;s\u0131&#8230;<\/p>\n<p><strong>G\u00fclda\u011f<\/strong>: Fed faiz art\u0131racak m\u0131?<\/p>\n<p><strong>A\u011fao\u011flu<\/strong>: Faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 duracak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcncesindeyim. Piyasada 3 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 5 yukar\u0131 \u00f6yle. Amerikan 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvillerini yak\u0131ndan izliyoruz. 4,31\u2019leride. 4,33\u2019leri de iki defa denedi, oray\u0131 a\u015fmama \u00e7abas\u0131 i\u00e7inde. Amerika\u2019da enflasyon beklentiler do\u011frultusunda geldi. Bu Fed&#8217;in bir s\u00fcre durma ihtimalinin y\u00fcksek oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Alt verilere bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda konut ve istihdam d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 i\u015fe yar\u0131yor gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n<p><strong>G\u00fclda\u011f<\/strong>: \u0130stihdama bak\u0131yorduk, \u015fimdi konuta da m\u0131 bak\u0131lacak?<\/p>\n<p><strong>A\u011fao\u011flu<\/strong>: Aynen. Konut taraf\u0131n\u0131 izlemek laz\u0131m. Ev fiyatlar\u0131nda ve kirada gerileme olursa Fed&#8217;in faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n sonuna geldi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fclecek. 20&#8217;sinde ipucu gelecektir.<\/p>\n<p><strong>G\u00fclda\u011f<\/strong>: Bize bakarsak, 750 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f ve OVP\u2019yi de \u00e7antas\u0131na koyan Bakan Mehmet \u015eim\u015fek, Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n &#8216;arkas\u0131nday\u0131z&#8217; deme\u00e7leriyle siyasi deste\u011fi de alm\u0131\u015f olarak, Bat\u0131&#8217;da yapaca\u011f\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinde paray\u0131 bulabilecek mi? Dublin&#8217;de yay\u0131n y\u00f6netmenlerinin en \u00e7ok sordu\u011fu soru bu oldu.<\/p>\n<p><strong>A\u011fao\u011flu<\/strong>: OVP, Bakan \u015eim\u015fek\u2019in yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131nda para ararken i\u015fine yarar m\u0131? Eh, \u00e7antas\u0131nda olmas\u0131 iyi bir haber. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k gelecek para ne kadar olur? BAE\u2019den gelecek 8,5 art\u0131 3,5 milyar dolarl\u0131k bir giri\u015ften s\u00f6z ediyoruz ama ta\u015f\u0131ma suyla bu de\u011firmen d\u00f6nm\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n<p><strong>G\u00fclda\u011f<\/strong>: Kendi kaynaklar\u0131m\u0131zla \u00e7eviremiyoruz diye&#8230;<\/p>\n<p><strong>A\u011fao\u011flu<\/strong>: Al\u0131\u015fkanl\u0131klardan vazge\u00e7ip yap\u0131lmas\u0131 gereken i\u015flere yo\u011funla\u015fmak laz\u0131m. \u00d6zellikle <a title=\"enerji\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ekonomim.com\/sektorler\/enerji\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">enerji<\/a> taraf\u0131nda da. Para ucuzken T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin yapmas\u0131 gereken en \u00f6nemli i\u015f; enerji arz g\u00fcvenli\u011fini yerli kaynaklara y\u00f6nlendirecek yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 yapmakt\u0131. Maalesef hem zaman hem de f\u0131rsat kaybettik. D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131\u2019ndan gelecek kaynaklar ve di\u011ferlerini deprem b\u00f6lgesi ba\u015fta enerjiye yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 \u00e7ekip, yerli imkanlar\u0131 maksimum seviyede kullan\u0131r hale getirmek gibi i\u015fler yaparsak buldu\u011fumuz paralar anlaml\u0131 olacak.<\/p>\n<p><strong>G\u00fclda\u011f<\/strong>: \u0130SO&#8217;da Duisburg Belediyesi ve NWR Global Business i\u015fbirli\u011finde yap\u0131lan toplant\u0131da bu ye\u015fil hidrojen meselesinin nas\u0131l bir ufuk a\u00e7abilece\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcnce enerji i\u015fini \u00e7ok ciddiye almam\u0131z gerekiyor.<\/p>\n<p><strong>A\u011fao\u011flu<\/strong>: Yoksa iPhone almak i\u00e7in bu paray\u0131 kullan\u0131rsak&#8230;<\/p>\n<p><strong>G\u00fclda\u011f<\/strong>: Kimse enflasyonla m\u00fccadele edece\u011fimize ikna olmaz.<\/p>\n<p><strong>A\u011fao\u011flu<\/strong>: CDS\u2019lerdeki gerileme, elde bir program\u0131n olmas\u0131 art\u0131lar\u0131m\u0131z. Ancak AB taraf\u0131ndan gelen raporlar \u00e7ok ho\u015f de\u011fil. Kal\u0131c\u0131 bir yap\u0131sal de\u011fi\u015fiklik, enflasyon verilerinin d\u00fczg\u00fcnl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc gibi yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara g\u00fcven verecek a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131mlar yapmam\u0131z gerekiyor ki, miktar yap\u0131c\u0131 olsun, gelen paran\u0131n s\u00fcresi uzun olsun. Tabii buldu\u011funuz paray\u0131 nereye harcayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 insanlara iyi anlatman\u0131z gerekiyor.<\/p>\n<p><strong>G\u00fclda\u011f<\/strong>: Beklentilerin d\u00fczelmesi i\u00e7in de laz\u0131m bu. Bak\u0131yorum, MB beklenti anketine kurlar ve enflasyon taraf\u0131nda enflasyon 67\u2019nin, <a title=\"dolar\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ekonomim.com\/finans\/doviz\/usd-trl-amerikan-dolari-turk-lirasi\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">dolar<\/a> 30\u2019un \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n<p><strong>A\u011fao\u011flu<\/strong>: Bir haftada kamunun enflasyon beklentilerinde 58\u2019den 65\u2019e bir de\u011fi\u015fim olunca, piyasan\u0131n beklentileri de de\u011fi\u015fiyor. As\u0131l fakt\u00f6r ise; \u0130TO, T\u00dc\u0130K ve ENAG\u2019\u0131n rakamlar\u0131n\u0131n birbirine yakla\u015fm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131. Enflasyonun raporlanan k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131n ya\u015fanana yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir d\u00f6neme geliyoruz\u2019 diye y\u00fckseldi beklentiler.<\/p>\n<p><strong>G\u00fclda\u011f<\/strong>: Bir nevi g\u00fcncelleniyor enflasyon. \u00d6nce ger\u00e7e\u011fi yakalayacak, sonra m\u00fccadele daha sa\u011flam bi\u00e7imde y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fclebilir.<\/p>\n<p><strong>A\u011fao\u011flu<\/strong>: Enflasyon m\u00fccadelesi as\u0131l\u0131nda beklenti y\u00f6netimidir.<\/p>\n<p><strong>G\u00fclda\u011f<\/strong>: \u015eim\u015fek Bakan&#8217;\u0131n &#8216;do\u011fru rakamlar\u0131 istiyorum&#8217; talebi de etkili olmu\u015fa benziyor. <a title=\"Faiz\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ekonomim.com\/finans\/faiz\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Faiz<\/a> konusu da \u00f6nemli. 200 diyen de var, 500 de&#8230; Sence PPK&#8217;da ne gelir?<\/p>\n<p><strong>A\u011fao\u011flu<\/strong>: Beklentim 1000 baz puan. 500 yetmez ama evet, 1000 ise olmas\u0131 gerekene \u00e7ok yakla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p><strong>G\u00fclda\u011f<\/strong>: Bu PPK yine \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli olacak. Kur ve enflasyondaki beklentilerimizde yeniden \u015fekillenecek. OVP\u2019den sonra enflasyonda y\u0131ll\u0131k hedeflerin \u00fczerine 9-10 puan eklendi. Enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131 devam edecekse, politika faizi 2023 sonunda 35\u2019e, 2024&#8217;te ise en az 40\u2019a gelecektir.<\/p>\n<p><strong>A\u011fao\u011flu<\/strong>: Zaten ger\u00e7ek hayat da oralarda \u015fekilleniyor. Ger\u00e7ek hayat\u0131 kayda ge\u00e7irirsek her \u015feyin hesab\u0131 daha kolay olacak. Vakit kaybetmeye gerek yok. \u0130\u015f g\u00f6ren faizle politika faizini e\u015fitleyelim.<\/p>\n<p><strong>G\u00fclda\u011f<\/strong>: Bir de KKM&#8217;yi \u00e7\u00f6zsek&#8230;<\/p>\n<p><strong>A\u011fao\u011flu<\/strong>: Enflasyondan sonraki en b\u00fcy\u00fck problemimiz KKM. Birtak\u0131m \u00f6nlemler al\u0131nmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor. Yerel se\u00e7imlere kadar KKM\u2019de ceberut \u00f6nlem gelmeyecek. Etraftan dola\u015farak KKM\u2019yi kontrol alt\u0131na al\u0131p birazc\u0131k azaltacak. \u015eimdi y\u00fczde 25 zorunlu kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k ile vadeyi uzatmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yorlar. \u015eundan dolay\u0131; A- se\u00e7imleri ge\u00e7elim. B- K\u0131sa vadede ba\u015f\u0131m\u0131za i\u015f gelmesin. K\u0131sa vadedeki y\u00fck\u00fcn\u00fc art\u0131rarak cazibesini azaltmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yorlar. Bankalar eliyle&#8230; \u0130\u015fin esas\u0131 TL faizlerinin cazip hale getirilmesi. Ad\u0131mlar o y\u00f6nde olursa i\u015f \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclecektir. Olmazsa se\u00e7imden sonra ceberut \u00f6nlemler gelecektir.<\/p>\n<h2><strong><span style=\"color: #333399;\">Alt\u0131n ve g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f Fed&#8217;i bekliyor<\/span><\/strong><\/h2>\n<p><strong>G\u00fclda\u011f<\/strong>: Alt\u0131nda bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f \u00f6ng\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcn, ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti, devam\u0131 nas\u0131l gelir?<\/p>\n<p><strong>A\u011fao\u011flu<\/strong>: Amerika\u2019daki faizdeki art\u0131\u015f duracak beklentisi ger\u00e7ekle\u015firse, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerin sonuna geldik. Yeni bir y\u00fckseli\u015f potansiyeli ortaya \u00e7\u0131kacak gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Ama Fed\u2019den bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimali azal\u0131rsa -ki gelecek gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyor- toparlanma g\u00f6rece\u011fiz. Alt\u0131nda kritik e\u015fik 1935 dolarlarda. Haftal\u0131k kapan\u0131\u015f baz\u0131nda oras\u0131 a\u015f\u0131l\u0131rsa alt\u0131nda 1965\u2019lere do\u011fru hareket olacak. G\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f biraz daha h\u0131zl\u0131 hareketler yapt\u0131. En son g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz 25.01\u2019den 22.31\u2019lere geldi. \u2018Yeni faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u015fimdilik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor\u2019 beklentisi ile toparland\u0131. Her ikisi de \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki hafta Fed a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131n\u0131 bekleyecek. Faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olmaz, \u2018beklemeye ge\u00e7tik\u2019 imas\u0131 gelirse, alt\u0131n da g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f de toparlayacak. K\u0131sa vadeli diplerini g\u00f6rd\u00fcler. H\u0131zl\u0131 d\u00fc\u015fen g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f alt\u0131na g\u00f6re g\u00f6rece olarak daha fazla y\u00fckselecektir diye d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. Alt\u0131n g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f oran\u0131 alt\u0131n lehine y\u00fckselmi\u015fti. \u015eimdi g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f lehine hareket olacak. Her \u015fey \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftaki Fed\u2019e ba\u011fl\u0131.<\/p>\n<h2><strong><span style=\"color: #333399;\">94,60 seviyesi a\u015f\u0131l\u0131rsa petrol 100 dolara gider<\/span><\/strong><\/h2>\n<p><strong>G\u00fclda\u011f<\/strong>: Petrolde beklentin ne?<\/p>\n<p><strong>A\u011fao\u011flu<\/strong>: 93,45\u2019lerdeyiz. 94\u2019l\u00fc rakamlar\u0131 da g\u00f6rd\u00fck. 2024\u2019e kadar Suudi Arabistan ve Rusya arz k\u0131s\u0131nt\u0131s\u0131na devam etme kararlar\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda bu d\u00fczey en \u00e7ok kime yar\u0131yor diye bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131mda, yan\u0131t Rusya ya da Suudi Arabistan de\u011fil. En \u00e7ok Amerika\u2019daki kaya\u00e7 petrol\u00fc \u00fcreticilerine yar\u0131yor. Suudi Arabistan ve Rusya bu i\u015ften teknik olarak gelir kayb\u0131na u\u011fruyor. Belki daha karl\u0131 sat\u0131\u015f imkan\u0131 oluyor ama daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck gelire raz\u0131 olmak zorunda kal\u0131yorlar. Buna katlanmak istemezler.<\/p>\n<p><strong>G\u00fclda\u011f<\/strong>: \u00dcretimi art\u0131r\u0131rlar m\u0131?<\/p>\n<p><strong>A\u011fao\u011flu<\/strong>: Evet. Ger\u00e7i, Uluslararas\u0131 Enerji Ajans\u0131 toplam g\u00fcnl\u00fck talebin COVID-19 \u00f6ncesine d\u00f6nd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. \u00c7in ekonomisi de yava\u015fl\u0131yor ve \u00c7in politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131 \u00f6nlemler alarak h\u0131zland\u0131rmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. G\u00f6r\u00fcnen, \u00c7in\u2019in petrol talebine katk\u0131s\u0131 az olacak.<\/p>\n<p><strong>G\u00fclda\u011f<\/strong>: Bekledi\u011fin senaryo nedir?<\/p>\n<p><strong>A\u011fao\u011flu<\/strong>: 94,60 seviyesi a\u015f\u0131l\u0131rsa 100 dolara gider petrol. 2023 i\u00e7inde olmas\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck ihtimal. Uluslararas\u0131 stoklarda azalma var. Son 15 ay\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesinde. Yeni stok da yap\u0131lam\u0131yor. Bu fiyatlar\u0131n artmas\u0131n\u0131 destekliyor. \u00dcretim k\u0131s\u0131t\u0131nda bir miktar gev\u015feme olmas\u0131 ve stoklar\u0131n da yenilenmesi gerekiyor. Risk art\u0131yor. Devletlerin de buna izin verece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnm\u00fcyorum. 100 dolar g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrse t\u00fcm d\u00fcnyada enerji fiyatlar\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 bir enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131 gelecektir. Bu da istenmeyecektir. Bunu faizi art\u0131rarak d\u00fczeltemezsiniz. Onun i\u00e7in 85 band\u0131na geri gelmelidir.<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>[ad_2]<br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ekonomim.com\/finans\/haberler\/sans-sohbetleri-gercek-hayati-kayda-gecirecek-hamle-haberi-708351\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>[ad_1] \u00a0\u00a0 G\u00fclda\u011f: Avrupa Ekonomi Bas\u0131n\u0131 Federasyonu\u2019nun toplant\u0131s\u0131 i\u00e7in Dublin\u2019deyim. G\u00fcndeme sen ba\u015fla&#8230; A\u011fao\u011flu: Avrupa<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":4151,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4150","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/egemhabertv.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4150","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/egemhabertv.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/egemhabertv.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/egemhabertv.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/egemhabertv.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=4150"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/egemhabertv.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4150\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/egemhabertv.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/4151"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/egemhabertv.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=4150"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/egemhabertv.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=4150"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/egemhabertv.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=4150"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}