{"id":4038,"date":"2023-09-16T12:28:29","date_gmt":"2023-09-16T09:28:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/egemhabertv.com\/?p=4038"},"modified":"2023-09-16T12:28:29","modified_gmt":"2023-09-16T09:28:29","slug":"gozler-merkezde-iki-banka-ayristi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/egemhabertv.com\/?p=4038","title":{"rendered":"G\u00f6zler Merkez’de, iki banka ayr\u0131\u015ft\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Erdo\u011fan’\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131na deste\u011finin ard\u0131ndan Merkez Bankas\u0131’n\u0131n (TCMB) kademeli faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na, bir haftal\u0131k repo faizini 500 puan art\u0131\u015fla y\u00fczde 30’a \u00e7ekerek devam etmesi bekleniyor. Hafize Gaye Erkan ba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131ndaki yeni TCMB y\u00f6netimi, politika faizini se\u00e7imlerden itibaren 16.5 puan y\u00fckseltti ve y\u00fczde 25’e \u00e7ekti. PPK, a\u011fustos ay\u0131nda piyasay\u0131 \u015fa\u015f\u0131rtarak 750 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015fa gitti.<\/p>\n

Ekonomi y\u00f6netiminin ‘s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015f’ kararl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve siyasi irade deste\u011fi, faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na devam edilece\u011fi beklentilerini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmi\u015f durumda.<\/p>\n

Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131 i\u00e7in piyasa beklentileri, politika faizinin y\u00fczde 25’ten y\u00fczde 30’a<\/strong> \u00e7ekilece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde. Bu arada piyasa yans\u0131yan tahminlerde iki banka genel beklentilerden ayr\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f durumda<\/strong>.\u00a0<\/p>\n

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\u00a0TCMB EYL\u00dcL AYI POL\u0130T\u0130KA FA\u0130Z\u0130 BEKLENT\u0130LER\u0130<\/strong><\/td>\n


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<\/p>\n

Reuters<\/td>\n

<\/p>\n

30%<\/td>\n

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(500 bp)<\/td>\n


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<\/p>\n

Foreks<\/td>\n

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30%<\/td>\n

<\/p>\n

(500 bp)<\/td>\n


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<\/p>\n

AA Finans<\/td>\n

<\/p>\n

30%<\/td>\n

<\/p>\n

(500 bp)<\/td>\n


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TCMB Piyasa Kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 Anketi<\/td>\n

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30%<\/td>\n

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(500 bp)<\/td>\n


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<\/p>\n

JPMorgan<\/td>\n

<\/p>\n

30%<\/td>\n

<\/p>\n

(500 bp)<\/td>\n


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<\/p>\n

Morgan Stanley<\/td>\n

<\/p>\n

30%<\/td>\n

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(500 bp)<\/td>\n


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<\/p>\n

Barclays<\/td>\n

<\/p>\n

27,5%<\/td>\n

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(250 bp)<\/td>\n


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<\/p>\n

Standard Chartered<\/td>\n

<\/p>\n

30%<\/td>\n

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(500 bp)<\/td>\n


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<\/p>\n

Societe Generale\u00a0<\/td>\n

<\/p>\n

31%<\/td>\n

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(600bp)<\/td>\n


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Baz\u0131 ekonomistler ise ‘\u015fahin’ ad\u0131m sonras\u0131 Merkez’in eyl\u00fclde daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 faiz<\/a> art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na giderek, etkileri g\u00f6rmek isteyebilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

Reuters<\/strong> anketine kat\u0131lan 16 ekonomistten ikisi 600 baz puan<\/strong>, dokuz ekonomist 500 baz puan<\/strong>, bir ekonomist 400 baz puan<\/strong> ve iki ekonomist ise 250 baz puan<\/strong> art\u0131\u015f bekliyor.<\/p>\n

Foreks<\/strong>‘in 24 ekonomistle yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ankette ise en y\u00fcksek tahmin y\u00fczde 31<\/strong>, en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck tahmin y\u00fczde 27,50.<\/p>\n

Standard Chartered: Agresif art\u0131\u015fa devam eder<\/span><\/h2>\n

TCMB’nin oda\u011f\u0131nda h\u0131zla artan enflasyon ve y\u00fckselen d\u0131\u015f dengesizlikler oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yleyen Standard Chartered’\u0131n bir ara\u015ft\u0131rma notunda yeni a\u00e7\u0131klanan OVP’nin yak\u0131n vadede al\u0131\u015f\u0131lagelmi\u015f politikalara taahh\u00fct niteli\u011finde oldu\u011fu belirtildi.<\/p>\n

“Politika de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fine siyasi deste\u011fin ard\u0131ndan TCMB’nin agresif faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na devam etmesini bekliyoruz. A\u011fustos ay\u0131ndaki faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve OVP, enflasyonun ekonomik daralmaya sebep olabilecek y\u00f6ntemlerle d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclmesine odaklan\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi.”<\/p>\n

Standard Chartered notunda ayr\u0131ca, h\u00fck\u00fcmetin ekonomi<\/a> politikalar\u0131na a\u00e7\u0131k deste\u011fi sebebiyle y\u0131l sonu TCMB faiz seviyesi tahminlerinin de y\u00fczde 35’e g\u00fcncellendi\u011fi belirtti.<\/p>\n

Societe Generale daha iddial\u0131<\/span><\/h2>\n

Societe Generale ise daha agresif bir hamle bekliyor. SocGen analistleri TCMB’nin eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131nda politika faizini %31\u2019e y\u00fckseltece\u011fini, bunu d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte 600 baz puanl\u0131k, 2024 birinci \u00e7eyrekte ise 200 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n takip edece\u011fini belirterek faizin %40\u2019a \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

Son PPK karar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ABD’li yat\u0131r\u0131m bankas\u0131 JPMorgan<\/strong> ve Morgan Stanley<\/strong> de faiz art\u0131r\u0131m beklentilerini yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revize etmi\u015flerdi. JPMorgan, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki iki ayda 10 puan daha art\u0131r\u0131m bekliyor. Morgan Stanley de 2023 sonu i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 30 olan Merkez Bankas\u0131 politika faizi beklentisini y\u00fczde 35\u2019e y\u00fckseltti.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

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Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

[ad_1] Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Erdo\u011fan’\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131na deste\u011finin ard\u0131ndan Merkez Bankas\u0131’n\u0131n (TCMB) kademeli faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na, bir<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":4039,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4038","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/egemhabertv.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4038","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/egemhabertv.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/egemhabertv.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/egemhabertv.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/egemhabertv.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=4038"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/egemhabertv.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4038\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/egemhabertv.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/4039"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/egemhabertv.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=4038"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/egemhabertv.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=4038"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/egemhabertv.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=4038"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}