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Uluslararas\u0131 kredi derecelendirme kurulu\u015fu Fitch Ratings, k\u00fcresel ekonomiye ili\u015fkin b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentisini bu y\u0131l i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 2,4’ten y\u00fczde 2,5’e \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131rken, gelecek y\u0131l i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 2,1’den y\u00fczde 1,9’a d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Fitch, K\u00fcresel Ekonomik G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm Raporu’nun eyl\u00fcl say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 “\u00c7in Endi\u015feleri Art\u0131yor” ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131yla yay\u0131mlad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Raporda, d\u00fcnya ekonomisinin bu y\u0131l tahmin edilenden biraz daha h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin beklendi\u011fi ancak \u00c7in’in emlak<\/a> piyasas\u0131nda derinle\u015fen \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentilerine g\u00f6lge d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc, parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fman\u0131n ise ABD ve Avrupa’daki talep g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc \u00fczerinde giderek daha fazla bask\u0131 olu\u015fturdu\u011fu aktar\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n K\u00fcresel ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmininin bu y\u0131l i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 2,4’ten y\u00fczde 2,5’e y\u00fckseltildi\u011fi belirtilen raporda, bunun bu y\u0131l \u015fu ana kadar ABD, Japonya ve \u00c7in hari\u00e7 geli\u015fmekte olan piyasalardaki “\u015fa\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 direnci” yans\u0131tt\u0131\u011f\u0131 kaydedildi.<\/p>\n Raporda, k\u00fcresel ekonominin gelecek y\u0131la ili\u015fkin b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentisinin y\u00fczde 2,1’den y\u00fczde 1,9’a d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc, d\u00fcnya ekonomisinin 2025’te ise y\u00fczde 2,8 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin beklendi\u011fi bildirildi.<\/p>\n \u00c7in’in konut piyasas\u0131nda \u00f6nceden beklenen istikrar\u0131n ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmedi\u011fine i\u015faret edilen raporda, yeni sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n bu y\u0131l 5’te 1 oran\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015febilece\u011fi aktar\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n Raporda, konut piyasas\u0131n\u0131n \u00fclke Gayrisafi Yurti\u00e7i Has\u0131la’s\u0131n\u0131n (GSYH) y\u00fczde 12’sini olu\u015fturdu\u011fu belirtilerek, daha geni\u015f ekonomi<\/a> \u00fczerinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u00e7arpan etkilerine sahip oldu\u011fu vurguland\u0131.<\/p>\n \u00c7in’de politika gev\u015femesinin \u015fu ana kadar yetersiz kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 aktar\u0131lan raporda, ihracat talebinin d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fc kaydedildi.<\/p>\n Raporda, \u00c7in ekonomisinin ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmininin bu y\u0131l i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 5,6’dan y\u00fczde 4,8’e ve gelecek y\u0131l i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 4,8’den y\u00fczde 4,6’ya d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc bildirildi.<\/p>\n ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131’n\u0131n (Fed) s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma politikas\u0131na ra\u011fmen \u00fclkedeki h\u0131zl\u0131 t\u00fcketim art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n bu y\u0131l da devam etti\u011fine i\u015faret edilen raporda, bunun istihdam ve \u00fccretlerin h\u0131zla artmas\u0131ndan kaynakland\u0131\u011f\u0131 aktar\u0131ld\u0131. Raporda, i\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fc talebinin son aylarda yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve i\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 so\u011fumaya devam ettik\u00e7e \u00fccret enflasyonunun daha da d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fi kaydedildi.<\/p>\n \u0130\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fc gelirindeki yava\u015flama ihtimalinin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra kredi ivmesinin negatife d\u00f6nmesiyle kredi ko\u015fullar\u0131ndaki s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fman\u0131n da belirginle\u015fti\u011fi belirtilen raporda, kar art\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ayn\u0131 zamanda yat\u0131r\u0131m beklentilerinin zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n sinyalini verdi\u011fi bildirildi.<\/p>\n Raporda, “Hala hafif bir resesyon bekliyoruz, ancak \u015fimdi bunun 2024’\u00fcn ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011fini tahmin ediyoruz.” ifadesi kullan\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n ABD ekonomisinin bu y\u0131la ili\u015fkin b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmininin y\u00fczde 1,2’den y\u00fczde 2’ye y\u00fckseltildi\u011fi belirtilen raporda, \u00fclke ekonomisinin gelecek seneye ili\u015fkin b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentisinin ise y\u00fczde 0,5’ten y\u00fczde 0,3’e d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc kaydedildi.<\/p>\n\u00c7in’in b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminleri d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcld\u00fc<\/strong><\/h2>\n
ABD’de resesyon hala olas\u0131<\/strong><\/h2>\n
Euro B\u00f6lgesi’nin b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminleri de a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revize edildi<\/strong><\/h2>\n