T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi i\u00e7in bu hafta beklenen en \u00f6nemli g\u00fcndem<\/a> maddesi Orta Vadeli Program (OVP) idi.<\/strong> 2024-26 d\u00f6nemi Orta Vadeli Program\u0131nda a\u00e7\u0131klanan politikalar ve hedeflenen ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fcklere bakarak, h\u00fck\u00fcmetin izleyece\u011fi ekonomi politikalar\u0131na ili\u015fkin \u00f6nemli bir \u00e7er\u00e7eveyi \u00f6\u011frenmi\u015f olduk.<\/p>\n Bu politikalar i\u00e7erisinde verilen en \u00f6nemli mesajlardan biri \u201cekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmeden taviz yok\u201d mesaj\u0131yd\u0131.<\/strong> Orta vadeli Programda 2024 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in h\u00fck\u00fcmetin hedefledi\u011fi ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131 %4. Bu oran daha \u00f6nceki y\u0131llarda hedeflenen ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme oranlar\u0131na g\u00f6re daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olsa da asl\u0131nda h\u00fck\u00fcmetin izlemeyi planlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 dezenflasyon program\u0131 ve k\u00fcresel talepteki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck beklentilere g\u00f6re olduk\u00e7a y\u00fcksek bir ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi hedefliyor.<\/p>\n Hedeflere bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda, 2024 y\u0131l\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin y\u00fcksek olmas\u0131n\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra kompozisyonda da dengelenmenin hedeflendi\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/strong> \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki y\u0131l t\u00fcketimin %3,6 ile \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 artmas\u0131, artan faiz oranlar\u0131na ra\u011fmen \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n %4 artmas\u0131, d\u0131\u015f talebin ise b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye 0,4 puan ile pozitif katk\u0131 vermesi hedefleniyor. \u0130zleyen y\u0131llarda ise yat\u0131r\u0131m ve d\u0131\u015f talepteki y\u00fckselen art\u0131\u015fla b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin %5\u2019e kadar y\u00fckseltilmesi hedefleniyor.<\/p>\n Burada iyimser olan konu ise b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin finansman\u0131d\u0131r.<\/strong> Detayland\u0131rmak gerekirse h\u00fck\u00fcmet 2023 y\u0131l\u0131nda %65\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131 bekledi\u011fi enflasyon oran\u0131n\u0131 2024 y\u0131l sonunda %33\u2019e indirece\u011fini taahh\u00fct ediyor. Bu taahh\u00fctt\u00fcn arkas\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 temel enstr\u00fcman olarak yer alacakt\u0131r. Bu da y\u00fcksek faizler anlam\u0131na geliyor. Y\u00fcksek faiz<\/a>; t\u00fcketimi ve yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n yumu\u015famas\u0131 ve i\u00e7 talebin ivme kaybetmesi anlam\u0131na gelir. Buradaki ivme kayb\u0131, yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan gelecek y\u00fcksek finansman giri\u015fiyle yumu\u015fat\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n Ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 bir program elbette y\u00fcksek finansman giri\u015fi sa\u011flayabilir; ancak k\u00fcresel finansal ko\u015fullar\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131, d\u0131\u015f talebin ise d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seyretmesinin beklendi\u011fini unutmayal\u0131m.<\/strong> Beklenen ihracat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ile d\u0131\u015f finansman giri\u015finin sa\u011flanamamas\u0131 halinde ise 2018 finansal t\u00fcrb\u00fclans\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z frene sert basma s\u00fcrecinin yinelemesi olduk\u00e7a olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n \u00a0 Maliye politikas\u0131na bakacak olursak, h\u00fck\u00fcmet 2023 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fcksek bir b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131yla y\u0131l\u0131 kapamay\u0131 planl\u0131yor.<\/strong> 2024-26 d\u00f6neminde kamu kesimi a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n milli gelire oran\u0131n\u0131n %6,4\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor.<\/p>\n OVP\u2019ye bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda ise artan b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n esas olarak vergi ve prim art\u0131\u015flar\u0131yla d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclmesinin planland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/strong> \u00d6rnek vermek gerekirse, bu y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda milli gelire oranla %15,2 d\u00fczeyine gerileyen merkezi y\u00f6netim vergi gelirlerinin milli gelir i\u00e7erisindeki pay\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki y\u0131l %18\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lmas\u0131 hedefleniyor. 2022 y\u0131l sonunda milli gelire oranla %20,8 olan vergi y\u00fck\u00fcn\u00fcn (sosyal g\u00fcvenlik primleri dahil) 2024 y\u0131l\u0131nda %24,5\u2019e y\u00fckseltilmesi hedefleniyor. \u0130\u00e7 talebin \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 seyretti\u011fi bir ortamda vergi y\u00fck\u00fcndeki y\u00fcksek art\u0131\u015f bizlere ek vergi tedbirlerinin gelebilece\u011finin sinyalini veriyor.<\/p>\n Harcamalar taraf\u0131nda ise tasarrufun esas olarak yat\u0131r\u0131m harcamalar\u0131 ve transferler kaleminden yap\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n hedeflendi\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/strong> Milli gelire oranla 2023 y\u0131l\u0131nda %3,2 olan yat\u0131r\u0131m harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n 2026 y\u0131l\u0131nda %2,5\u2019e d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclmesi, ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemde transfer harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n da 3,2 puan a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekilmesi hedefleniyor. Transfer harcamalar\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f i\u00e7in yap\u0131sal d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm programlar\u0131n\u0131n hayata ge\u00e7irilmesini bekleyebiliriz. \u00d6te yandan yat\u0131r\u0131m harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesi ise b\u00fcy\u00fcme potansiyeli a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan olumsuz bir tablo \u00e7izmektedir.<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/i.ekonomim.com\/storage\/files\/images\/2023\/09\/07\/ekonomibuyume-eeoJ.jpg\")
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