{"id":3348,"date":"2023-09-07T03:11:41","date_gmt":"2023-09-07T00:11:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/egemhabertv.com\/?p=3348"},"modified":"2023-09-07T03:11:41","modified_gmt":"2023-09-07T00:11:41","slug":"ovpde-buyume-hedefi-45-nasil-bir-ekonomi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/egemhabertv.com\/?p=3348","title":{"rendered":"OVP’de b\u00fcy\u00fcme hedefi %4,5 – Nas\u0131l Bir Ekonomi"},"content":{"rendered":"

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\u2714<\/strong> Ortalama y\u00fczde 4,5 b\u00fcy\u00fcme hedeflenmi\u015f olsa da OVP ile d\u00f6nem sonunda 1 trilyon 318 milyar dolar GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ve ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na 14 bin 855 dolar gelir ile \u201cy\u00fcksek gelirli \u00fclkeler\u201d d\u00fczeyine \u00e7\u0131k\u0131lmas\u0131 hedeflendi.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

MARUF BUZCUG\u0130L <\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

H\u00dcSEY\u0130N G\u00d6K\u00c7E <\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

MEHMET KAYA<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Ekonomi y\u00f6netimi taraf\u0131ndan, enflasyonla m\u00fccadele ve istikrara y\u00f6nelik ekonomi program\u0131 nitelikli olaca\u011f\u0131 s\u00f6ylenen 2024-2026 Orta Vadeli Program (OVP) a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. Programda, \u00f6nceki y\u0131llarda y\u0131ll\u0131k ortalama potansiyel b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131 olan y\u00fczde 5\u2019leri hedefleyen bir temel yerine, program d\u00f6neminde ortalama y\u0131ll\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin bunun alt\u0131nda y\u00fczde 4,5 olarak belirlenmesi dikkat \u00e7ekti. B\u00f6ylece, T\u00fcrkiye bu d\u00f6nemde \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme bekledi\u011finin i\u015faretini vermi\u015f oldu. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, program d\u00f6nemi sonunda, ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na gelirde y\u00fcksek \u00fclkeler grubuna ge\u00e7i\u015f hedeflenmesi dikkat \u00e7ekti.<\/p>\n

OVP Cumhurba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131nda d\u00fczenlenen toplant\u0131yla tan\u0131t\u0131ld\u0131. Toplant\u0131da OVP\u2019nin temel g\u00f6stergeleri Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 Cevdet Y\u0131lmaz taraf\u0131ndan sunuldu. Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Erdo\u011fan konu\u015fmas\u0131nda, program d\u00f6nemi sonunda hedeflenen GSYH\u2019nin dolar cinsinden T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na gelirde y\u00fcksek gelirli \u00fclkeler seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik hedefe dikkat \u00e7ekti. GSYH ve ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131 gelirde uluslararas\u0131 kriterlerde dolar cinsinden kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131klar \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131yor. OVP\u2019de GSYH hedeflerinden yap\u0131lan hesaplamayla, 2023 ortalama dolar kuru 23,86, 2024 sonunda ise 36,78 olaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Enflasyonla m\u00fccadelenin 2024\u2019e a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak kayd\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 da \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan unsurlardan biri oldu. Enflasyonun tek haneye d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclmekle birlikte, T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesine imkan veren y\u00fczde 5\u2019lik istikrarl\u0131 hedefi yerine 2024\u2019te y\u00fczde 33 olmak \u00fczere program d\u00f6nemi sonunda y\u00fczde 8,5 oran\u0131nda bir hedef belirlendi\u011fi g\u00f6zlendi. Merkez Bankas\u0131 ve ekonomi<\/a> y\u00f6netimi, son d\u00f6nem ileti\u015fimlerinde y\u00fczde 5\u2019lik hedefi telaffuz etmekten ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Erdo\u011fan: Enflasyonu \u00fclke g\u00fcndeminden \u00e7\u0131karaca\u011f\u0131z <\/strong><\/h2>\n

Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Recep Tayyip Erdo\u011fan, OVP sunumunda yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 konu\u015fmada Kur Korumal\u0131 Mevduat sisteminin g\u00f6revini yerine getirerek kur istikrar\u0131na katk\u0131 sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bildirdi. Erdo\u011fan, Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yat\u0131r\u0131m taahh\u00fctl\u00fc avans kredilerinin g\u00fcncellenece\u011fini belirterek, yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n bu do\u011frultuda desteklenece\u011fini aktard\u0131.<\/p>\n

Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Yard\u0131mc\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131, Strateji ve B\u00fct\u00e7e Ba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ile Hazine ve Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 koordinasyonunda haz\u0131rlanan OVP\u2019nin enflasyonla m\u00fccadeleye destek verece\u011fini belirten Erdo\u011fan, bunun 2024-2026 d\u00f6nemine ili\u015fkin T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisine ili\u015fkin kapsaml\u0131 yol haritas\u0131 te\u015fkil edece\u011finin alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7izdi.<\/p>\n

\u201cOVP\u2019yi haz\u0131rlarken sorunlar\u0131 g\u00f6rmezden gelmedik\u201d<\/strong><\/h2>\n

T\u00fcrkiye Y\u00fczy\u0131l\u0131 vizyonunu ekonomik perspektifini i\u00e7eren OVP ile g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin ilk yol haritas\u0131n\u0131 ortaya koyduklar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yleyen Erdo\u011fan, \u201cH\u00fck\u00fcmet olarak, Orta Vadeli Program\u2019a deste\u011fimizin tam oldu\u011funu \u00f6zellikle ifade etmek istiyorum. Program\u0131m\u0131zda hi\u00e7bir sorunu g\u00f6rmezden gelmedik. 7 temel ad\u0131mda \u00f6ncelikli reform ad\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 belirledik. Program d\u00f6neminde ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmeden kesinlikle taviz vermeyece\u011fiz. Katma de\u011ferli yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7aca\u011f\u0131z, sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme sa\u011flayaca\u011f\u0131z. S\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131n\u0131n da deste\u011fiyle enflasyonu tek haneye d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrece\u011fiz. Cari i\u015flemler dengesini iyile\u015ftirece\u011fiz\u201d dedi.<\/p>\n

\u201cOrtalama b\u00fcy\u00fcme hedefi y\u00fczde 4,5\u201d <\/strong><\/h2>\n

Depremin tahribat\u0131n\u0131 ortadan kald\u0131r\u0131rken, istihdam\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131p, enflasyonu tek haneye d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcp gelir da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 iyile\u015ftirmeyi \u00f6nceleyeceklerini dile getiren Recep Tayyip Erdo\u011fan, b\u00fcy\u00fcmede dengelenmeyle y\u00fczde 4,5 b\u00fcy\u00fcme hedeflediklerini kaydetti.<\/p>\n

D\u00f6nem sonunda tarihte ilk kez milli gelirin 1,3 trilyon liray\u0131 a\u015faca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ifade eden Erdo\u011fan, ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na milli gelirin 14 bin 855 dolara \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131yla da y\u00fcksek gelir grubu \u00fclkeler aras\u0131na girmeyi \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fcklerinden bahsetti.<\/p>\n

Para, maliye ve gelir politikalar\u0131n\u0131 t\u00fcm ara\u00e7lar\u0131yla uygulayarak enflasyonu art\u0131ran yap\u0131sal unsurlar\u0131 ortadan kald\u0131racaklar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yleyen Erdo\u011fan, tek haneli enflasyon hedefini yineledi. Erdo\u011fan, mali disiplinle desteklenecek dezenflasyon s\u00fcrecinin, g\u00fcven ortam\u0131n\u0131 peki\u015ftirip, ihracat odakl\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir b\u00fcy\u00fcme iklimi sa\u011flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kaydetti.<\/p>\n

\u201cCari a\u00e7\u0131k y\u00fczde 2\u2019ye inecek\u201d <\/strong><\/h2>\n

Program sonunda cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n GSY\u0130H\u2019ye oran\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 4\u2019ten y\u00fczde 2 civar\u0131na inmesini \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fcklerini vurgulayan Erdo\u011fan, iyile\u015fmenin devam\u0131 ve yap\u0131sal d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcn meyvesini vermesiyle birlikte cari i\u015flem fazlas\u0131na ula\u015f\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 dile getirdi. OVP\u2019de uygulanacak politikalarla birlikte enflasyonun \u00fclke g\u00fcndeminden kald\u0131r\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7izen Erdo\u011fan; para, maliye ve gelir politikalar\u0131nda e\u015fg\u00fcd\u00fcmle hareket edilece\u011fini vurgulad\u0131.<\/p>\n

Makro ihtiyat\u0131 politikalarda sadele\u015ftirmeye gidilerek, ekonomik dengeyi bozucu, enflasyonu besleyen t\u00fcketim art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nlenece\u011fini s\u00f6yleyen Erdo\u011fan, \u201cYat\u0131r\u0131m, istihdam, \u00fcretim ve ihracata dayal\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme politikalar\u0131yla fiyat istikrar\u0131 yan\u0131 s\u0131ra reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fc destekleyen finansman sa\u011flayaca\u011f\u0131z\u201d dedi. Stratejik tar\u0131m \u00fcr\u00fcnlerinde yeterlilik oranlar\u0131 belirlenerek \u00fcretim planlamas\u0131 yap\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ifade eden Erdo\u011fan, sera organize tar\u0131m b\u00f6lgesi kurulmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n h\u0131zland\u0131r\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bildirdi. T\u00fcketici aleyhine uygulamalarla rekabeti s\u0131n\u0131rlay\u0131c\u0131 ve haks\u0131z kazanc\u0131 \u00f6nlemeye y\u00f6nelik d\u00fczenleme uygulamaya konulaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yleyen Erdo\u011fan, konut stokundaki kay\u0131plar\u0131n telafisine y\u00f6nelik yeni sosyal konut projeleri geli\u015ftirilece\u011fini anlatt\u0131.<\/p>\n

\u201cKKM g\u00f6revini yerine getirdi\u201d <\/strong><\/h2>\n

Kur Korumal\u0131 Mevduat (KKM) uygulamas\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6revini yerine getirerek kur istikrar\u0131na \u00f6nemli katk\u0131 sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na de\u011finen Erdo\u011fan, \u201cKKM\u2019nin kur istikrar\u0131n\u0131 peki\u015ftirdi\u011fi bir zeminde TL mevduatlara d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fmesinin yolunu a\u00e7aca\u011f\u0131z\u201d dedi. Erdo\u011fan, Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yat\u0131r\u0131m taahh\u00fctl\u00fc avans kredisiyle para politikas\u0131n\u0131n gerektirdi\u011fi duru\u015fundan taviz vermeden yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 destekleyece\u011fini anlatt\u0131.<\/p>\n

Finans<\/a> sekt\u00f6r\u00fc t\u00fcm alanlar\u0131yla geli\u015fmesi ve \u0130FM\u2019nin ana unsuru olmas\u0131 i\u00e7in bu alanda da destek verilece\u011fini s\u00f6yleyen Erdo\u011fan, yenilik\u00e7i, kapsay\u0131c\u0131, dinamik kat\u0131l\u0131m finans sekt\u00f6r\u00fc i\u00e7in de kat\u0131l\u0131m esasl\u0131 faaliyet g\u00f6steren Finteklerin desteklenece\u011fini ifade etti. Erdo\u011fan, \u0130stanbul\u2019un kat\u0131l\u0131m finansta da k\u00fcresel merkezlerden birisi haline gelece\u011fini belirtti.<\/p>\n

\u201cVergi kanunlar\u0131nda yat\u0131r\u0131m dostu d\u00fczenleme\u201d<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Gelir Vergisi, Kurumlar Vergisi ve Vergi Usul Kanunu gibi temel vergi kanunlar\u0131n\u0131n; yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 dostu, sade, anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131r bir yap\u0131ya kavu\u015fturulaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 dile getiren Erdo\u011fan, adil bir vergi sistemi kurulaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti.<\/p>\n

Kay\u0131t d\u0131\u015f\u0131 ile m\u00fccadelede teknolojik imkanlardan daha \u00e7ok yararlanacaklar\u0131n\u0131 aktaran Erdo\u011fan, kamu yat\u0131r\u0131m projelerinin de g\u00f6zden ge\u00e7irilerek ekonomiye h\u0131zl\u0131 kazand\u0131r\u0131lacaklar\u0131na \u00f6ncelik verilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n

\u0130\u015fyeri \u00fcretimine y\u00f6nelik \u00fcr\u00fcn bazl\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131m yol haritas\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirten Erdo\u011fan, d\u00f6viz kazand\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 hizmet ticaretinin desteklenerek, AB ile ticarete yeni boyut kazand\u0131rmak \u00fczere GB g\u00fcncellenmesine y\u00f6nelik \u00e7al\u0131\u015fman\u0131n yo\u011funla\u015faca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bildirdi.<\/p>\n

Erdo\u011fan, b\u00fcrokratik ve hukuki \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclebilirli\u011fin g\u00fc\u00e7lendirilerek do\u011frudan yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 hedeflediklerini kaydetti. \u00d6zel sekt\u00f6r yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik reform yap\u0131laca\u011f\u0131ndan da bahseden Erdo\u011fan, yarg\u0131n\u0131n etkinle\u015ftirilece\u011fini, b\u00fcrokrasinin azalt\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Uygun yat\u0131r\u0131m yerlerin i\u00e7eren bir yat\u0131r\u0131m yeri envanteri olu\u015fturulaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirten Erdo\u011fan, gen\u00e7lere meslek edindirici nitelikli istihdam\u0131 art\u0131racak, i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc potansiyelinin azami kullan\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 d\u00fczenleme yap\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 aktard\u0131.<\/p>\n

Yapay zeka, siber teknoloji, enerji<\/a>, uzay teknolojisi gibi stratejik alanlarda nitelikli i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc yeti\u015ftirmeye y\u00f6nelik kamu, \u00f6zel \u00fcniversite programlar\u0131n\u0131n hayata ge\u00e7irilece\u011fini ifade eden Erdo\u011fan, \u00fcniversitelerin kontenjanlar\u0131n\u0131n da kamu ve \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn ihtiya\u00e7 duydu\u011fu i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc ile uyumlu hale getirilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n

\u201cVergi sistemi karbon fiyatlama \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde g\u00f6zden ge\u00e7irilecek\u201d <\/strong><\/h2>\n

T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin 2053 y\u0131l\u0131 s\u0131f\u0131r emisyon hedefi kapsam\u0131nda ekonominin her alan\u0131nda ye\u015fil d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fc ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirmek i\u00e7in \u00e7al\u0131\u015facaklar\u0131n\u0131 anlatan Recep Tayyip Erdo\u011fan, iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fiyle m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in yasal \u00e7er\u00e7evenin geli\u015ftirilece\u011fini, ulusal emisyon ticaret sisteminin hukuki altyap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n tamamlanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 vurgulad\u0131. T\u00fcrk vergi sisteminin karbon fiyatlama \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde g\u00f6zden ge\u00e7irilece\u011fi bilgisini de veren Erdo\u011fan, ula\u015ft\u0131rmada d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck karbonlu sisteme ge\u00e7i\u015fin de kolayla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 dile getirdi.<\/p>\n

Cevdet Y\u0131lmaz\u2019dan \u201cmali disiplin\u201d ve \u201cyap\u0131sal reform\u201d vurgusu<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n

Program<\/strong> hedef ve tahminlerini a\u00e7\u0131klayan Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Cevdet Y\u0131lmaz konu\u015fmas\u0131nda mali disiplini ve yap\u0131sal reformlar\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131. B\u00fcy\u00fcme ve istihdam\u0131n ihmal edilmeyece\u011finin alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7izen Y\u0131lmaz, \u201cOVP\u2019nin d\u00f6rt temel amac\u0131 var. Afet yaralar\u0131n\u0131n sar\u0131lmas\u0131, makro istikrar\u0131n sa\u011flanmas\u0131 ve enflasyonun tek haneye inmesi, b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve istihdam\u0131n devam\u0131, sosyal adalet. OVP\u2019de \u00fc\u00e7 temel politika arac\u0131 olacak. Bunlar deprem harcamalar\u0131 hari\u00e7 mali disiplinin sa\u011flanmas\u0131, para politikas\u0131 ve yap\u0131sal d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcmlerdir\u201d diye konu\u015ftu. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin enflasyonla m\u00fccadele ederken yap\u0131sal reform yapan bir \u00fclke olarak etki g\u00f6stermek istedi\u011fini s\u00f6yleyen Y\u0131lmaz, b\u00f6ylece orta vadede yap\u0131sal reformlarla ekonomiyi d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcrmeyi, k\u0131sa vadede ise enflasyonla m\u00fccadele ederken yap\u0131sal reform yapan bir \u00fclke olarak beklentileri olumlu y\u00f6nde de\u011fi\u015ftirmeyi sa\u011flayacaklar\u0131n\u0131 kaydetti.<\/p>\n

Depremin T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisine etki etti\u011fini ancak deprem yaralar\u0131n\u0131n sar\u0131lmas\u0131 i\u00e7in kayna\u011f\u0131n ayr\u0131labildi\u011fini belirten Cevdet Y\u0131lmaz, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 mali disiplin sayesinde bor\u00e7luluk g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn de iyi durumda oldu\u011funu kaydetti. Y\u0131lmaz, \u201cAB Tan\u0131ml\u0131 bor\u00e7 seviyesinde iyiyiz. \u0130yi ki b\u00fct\u00e7e disiplinini sa\u011flayarak a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekti. \u0130yi ki bor\u00e7lar\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131ya \u00e7ekmi\u015fiz. Bor\u00e7lu \u015fekilde afete yakalansayd\u0131k bu harcamalar\u0131 yapamazd\u0131k. Afete ra\u011fmen bor\u00e7 seviyesi ge\u00e7ici olarak GSYH\u2019nin y\u00fczde 35\u2019ine kadar y\u00fckselecek. 2026\u2019da kamu bor\u00e7 stokunu y\u00fczde 33\u2019lere \u00e7ek\u00e7e\u011fiz. Bu oran geli\u015fmekte olanlarda y\u00fczde 65, geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerde y\u00fczde 109\u2026 D\u00fcnya ile mukayese edildi\u011finde depreme ra\u011fmen iyi performans g\u00f6steriyoruz.\u201d dedi. Cevdet Y\u0131lmaz, konu\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n di\u011fer b\u00f6l\u00fcmlerinde de b\u00fct\u00e7e disiplinine \u00f6nem verildi\u011fini ve OVP\u2019deki hedefl erde korundu\u011funu kaydetti. Cevdet Y\u0131lmaz, mali disiplin i\u00e7inde program d\u00f6neminde tasarrufun \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtirken, tasarrufun harcamalar\u0131n k\u0131s\u0131lmas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde de\u011fil, verimli, etkin ve do\u011fru alanlarda kullan\u0131m\u0131 \u015feklinde de\u011ferlendirilece\u011fini kaydetti.<\/p>\n

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Yap\u0131sal reformlar i\u00e7in tarihler de verildi<\/span><\/strong><\/h2>\n

OVP ile yap\u0131sal reform ba\u015fl\u0131klar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. Programda 7 ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n \u00f6ncelikli olarak ele al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve reform eksenleri olarak belirlendi\u011fi kaydedildi. Enflasyonla m\u00fccadele edilirken bu reformlar\u0131n yap\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nemine dikkat \u00e7ekildi. OVP\u2019nin eki olarak a\u00e7\u0131klanan yap\u0131sal reformlara y\u00f6nelik olarak \u00f6nlemler OVP\u2019nin normal ba\u015fl\u0131klar\u0131 i\u00e7inde, eylem plan\u0131 ise Y\u0131ll\u0131k Planda a\u00e7\u0131klanacak. Cevdet Y\u0131lmaz 7 eksendeki yap\u0131sal reformlar ve bu reformlar \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde uygulanacak baz\u0131 program politikalara y\u00f6nelik sunumunda ba\u015fl\u0131klar\u0131n yan\u0131nda tamamlanma zaman\u0131na ili\u015fkin de bilgi verdi. Bu ba\u015fl\u0131klar ve \u00f6nlemler \u015f\u00f6yle:<\/p>\n

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B\u00fcy\u00fcme, cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131 gelirde temkinli ama iyimser yakla\u015f\u0131m<\/span><\/strong><\/h2>\n

OVP<\/strong>\u2019de temel makro ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmede y\u00fczde 4,5 ortalama b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklenirken, ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131 gelirde d\u00fczenli bir y\u00fckseli\u015f \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Program d\u00f6nemi sonunda ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131 gelirde y\u00fcksek gelire ula\u015f\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde bir hedef ve tahmin yer ald\u0131. Uluslararas\u0131 g\u00f6stergeler dolar cinsinden verildi\u011fi i\u00e7in, TL hedefler tutsa da kurdaki de\u011fi\u015fim hedef ve g\u00f6stergeleri de\u011fi\u015ftiriyor.<\/p>\n

B\u00f6yle bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, kurun tahminlere uygun de\u011ferler almas\u0131 \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131yor. Program\u0131n GSYH hedefine g\u00f6re, 2023\u2019de y\u0131l sonu ortalama dolar kuru 23,9 TL olarak belirlendi. 2024 sonunda ise 36,8 TL olarak, 2025\u2019te 43,9 TL, 2026\u2019da 47,8 TL olarak hesaplara dahil edildi\u011fi g\u00f6zlendi. Bu seviyelerin a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131, hedeflenen dolar cinsinden GSYH ve ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na geliri de zorlayacak. 2023 sonu itibariyle GSYH tahmini 1 trilyon 67 milyar dolar, ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na gelir ise 12 bin 415 dolar olarak OVP\u2019ye girdi.<\/p>\n

\u201c\u0130stihdam 2,7 milyon ki\u015fi artacak\u201d<\/span><\/strong><\/h2>\n

Sabit<\/strong> ve dar gelirlilerin al\u0131m g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc y\u00fckseltirken, sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131m ve i\u015f yapma zemini olu\u015fturacaklar\u0131n\u0131 da dile getiren Erdo\u011fan, y\u0131ll\u0131k ortalama 909 bin olmak \u00fczere program d\u00f6neminde istihdam\u0131n 2.7 milyon ki\u015fi artmas\u0131n\u0131 ve i\u015fsizli\u011fin tek haneye inmesini \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fcklerini belirtti. Yat\u0131r\u0131m, istihdam, \u00fcretim ve ihracat\u0131 \u00f6nceleyen politikalar merkezine ye\u015fil ve dijital d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fc i\u00e7eren ikiz d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fc koyduklar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yleyen Erdo\u011fan, ihracat hedefini 300 milyar dolar, turizm<\/a> gelir hedefini ise 70 milyar dolar olarak a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Temel ithalat kalemi olan enerjide do\u011falgaz ve petrol arama\/\u00fcretimine y\u00f6nelik at\u0131lan ad\u0131mlar\u0131n katk\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n daha fazla g\u00f6r\u00fclece\u011fini ifade eden Recep Tayyip Erdo\u011fan, \u0130stanbul Finans Merkezi\u2019ni (\u0130FM) de ayn\u0131 zamanda enerji hub\u2019\u0131 haline getireceklerini kaydetti. Erdo\u011fan, \u0130FM kulelerinden birisini buna ay\u0131rd\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131, bu kulede Londra, Hamburg borsalar\u0131nda oldu\u011fu gibi maden dahil enerji pazarlamas\u0131n\u0131n yap\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bildirdi.<\/p>\n

Depreme 3 y\u0131lda 3 trilyon TL kaynak<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n

S\u0131k\u0131<\/strong> para politikas\u0131 deste\u011fiyle enflasyonu yeniden tek haneye d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcp, cari dengeyi iyile\u015ftireceklerini belirten Erdo\u011fan, bu y\u0131l deprem i\u00e7in 762 milyar lira ay\u0131rd\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131, program d\u00f6neminin tamam\u0131nda ise depreme y\u00f6nelik 3 trilyon liral\u0131k kaynak kullanacaklar\u0131n\u0131 aktard\u0131.<\/p>\n

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Ekonomistler temkinli yakla\u015f\u0131yor<\/span><\/strong><\/h2>\n

Ekonomistler, 2024-2026 d\u00f6nemini kapsayan Orta Vadeli Program\u2019da (OVP) yap\u0131sal reformlara ayr\u0131 bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm ayr\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nemli oldu\u011funu vurgularken, enflasyon ve d\u00f6viz kuru konusuna temkinli yakla\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

\u25a0<\/span> Prof. Dr. Selva Demiralp:<\/h4>\n
Kur patikas\u0131 enflasyonla tutarl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor<\/strong><\/h5>\n

\u201cEnflasyonda y\u0131l sonu tahmini bizim tahminlerimize do\u011fru g\u00fcncellenmi\u015f. Enflasyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fcmeden feragat edilmesi gerekti\u011fi not edilmi\u015f. Kur patikas\u0131 enflasyonla tutarl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Bunlar olumlu. Ancak 3+ sene i\u00e7inde enflasyon y\u00fczde 65\u2019ten al\u0131n\u0131p y\u00fczde 338,5\u2019e d\u00fc\u015fecekse bunu potansiyelin alt\u0131nda bile inmeyecek bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme ile ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirmek nas\u0131l m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olacak? 2001 sonras\u0131nda benzer bir sermaye giri\u015fi varsay\u0131m\u0131?\u201d<\/p>\n

\u25a0<\/span> Ekonomist Mahfi E\u011filmez:<\/h4>\n
OVP, temennilerle dolu<\/strong><\/h5>\n

\u201cOVP konusunda yaz\u0131 yazmayaca\u011f\u0131m. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc bir ekonomik g\u00f6stergenin gelecek y\u0131l ve sonraki y\u0131llarda ne olaca\u011f\u0131na ili\u015fkin tahminler yaz\u0131l\u0131nca onun nas\u0131l olup da \u00f6yle olaca\u011f\u0131 da yaz\u0131lmal\u0131 ki ortada bir program olsun. \u00d6rnek vereyim: Mesela OVP\u2019ye g\u00f6re T\u00dcFE\u2019nin 2023 sonunda y\u00fczde 65 olmas\u0131, 2024 sonunda y\u00fczde 33\u2019e d\u00fc\u015fmesi bekleniyor. Mant\u0131kl\u0131 bir hedef. \u0130yi ho\u015f da bu ne olacak da 65\u2019ten 33\u2019e d\u00fc\u015fecek. Bu d\u00fc\u015ferken b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve i\u015fsizlik olumsuz etkilenince ne gibi \u00f6nlemler al\u0131nacak. S\u0131k\u0131 para ve maliye politikas\u0131 uygulayaca\u011f\u0131z da d\u00fc\u015fecek demekle program olmaz. Faizi ne yapacaks\u0131n\u0131z ve ne zaman yapacaks\u0131n\u0131z? Bunu yazmadan ve taahh\u00fct etmeden yaz\u0131lanlar program olmaz, temenni olur. OVP\u2019nin her taraf\u0131 bu t\u00fcr temennilerle dolu. \u00d6te yandan yap\u0131sal alan diye se\u00e7ilen konular\u0131n hi\u00e7biri \u00fclkenin \u015fu a\u015famada ihtiyac\u0131 olan yap\u0131sal reformlar\u0131 temsil etmiyor. \u00dclkenin en b\u00fcy\u00fck ihtiyac\u0131 olan hukukun \u00fcst\u00fcnl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ve yarg\u0131 ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131 reformunun \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmedi\u011fi programda yap\u0131sal reformdan s\u00f6z edilemez. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla OVP benim a\u00e7\u0131mdan bir yaz\u0131 konusu yap\u0131labilecek bir belge de\u011fil.\u201c<\/p>\n

\u25a0<\/span> Prof. Dr. Hakan Kara:<\/h4>\n
Kur artarken enflasyon nas\u0131l d\u00fc\u015fecek<\/strong><\/h5>\n

\u201cD\u00f6viz<\/a> kurunun bug\u00fcnden sonra do\u011frusal artarak OVP\u2019deki 2023 y\u0131l ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011fi varsay\u0131m\u0131 alt\u0131nda, raporda ima edilen y\u0131lsonu dolar\/TL kurunun 29,9 oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yleyebiliriz. Ayn\u0131 mant\u0131kla gidersek 2024 y\u0131l sonu i\u00e7in ima edilen dolar kuru da yakla\u015f\u0131k 43 oluyor. Bu da dolar\/ TL\u2019de y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fczde 44 art\u0131\u015fa tekab\u00fcl ediyor. O zaman gelsin soru: Gelecek y\u0131l kur y\u00fczde 44 art\u0131p b\u00fcy\u00fcme ciddi yava\u015flamazken enflasyon nas\u0131l y\u00fczde 33\u2019e d\u00fc\u015fecek.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u25a0<\/span> Ekonomist U\u011fur G\u00fcrses:<\/h4>\n
En yumu\u015fak kar\u0131n b\u00fct\u00e7e<\/strong><\/h5>\n

\u201cOVP varsay\u0131m parametreleri ge\u00e7mi\u015f y\u0131llardan farkl\u0131 olarak \u2018olsa olsa\u2019 diyerek yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyor. En yumu\u015fak kar\u0131n b\u00fct\u00e7e. Deprem harcamalar\u0131 hari\u00e7 b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 GSYH\u2019nin y\u00fczde 3,9\u2019u olarak hesapl\u0131yorum. Yerel se\u00e7imden ge\u00e7ecek bir T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in bu olduk\u00e7a iyimser. H\u00fck\u00fcmetin tahmin etti\u011fi haliyle bile 2.6 trilyon b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n finansman\u0131 bu negatif reel faizlerle nas\u0131l olacak merak ediyorum? Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Erdo\u011fan\u2019\u0131n da konu\u015fma metnine giren s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131n\u0131n dozunun ise 2024 yerel se\u00e7imler sonras\u0131nda art\u0131r\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 OVP\u2019nin genel g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcnden de anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u25a0<\/span> Prof. Dr. Erhan Aslano\u011flu:<\/h4>\n
Yap\u0131sal reforma i\u015faret etmesi \u00f6nemli<\/strong><\/h5>\n

\u201cBu y\u0131l i\u00e7in yap\u0131lan b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmini ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. B\u00fcy\u00fcme gelecek y\u0131l bir miktar daha a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da olabilir ancak k\u00fcresel piyasalarda iyi bir seyir izlenmesi ve enflasyonun destek vermesi durumunda b\u00fcy\u00fcmede bu oran\u0131n y\u00fczde 4 ve \u00fczeri seviyeleri g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. Yap\u0131sal reform taraf\u0131na ayr\u0131 bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 \u00f6nemli. Yap\u0131sal reformlarda 7 ana ba\u015fl\u0131k olmas\u0131 ve T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin yap\u0131sal reform alanlar\u0131na i\u015faret etmesi de olumlu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Sorunlar\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6zmek i\u00e7in yap\u0131sal reform boyutuna bakmak gerekiyor.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

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[ad_1] \u2714 Ortalama y\u00fczde 4,5 b\u00fcy\u00fcme hedeflenmi\u015f olsa da OVP ile d\u00f6nem sonunda 1 trilyon<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":3349,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3348","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/egemhabertv.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3348","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/egemhabertv.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/egemhabertv.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/egemhabertv.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/egemhabertv.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=3348"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/egemhabertv.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3348\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/egemhabertv.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/3349"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/egemhabertv.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=3348"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/egemhabertv.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=3348"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/egemhabertv.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=3348"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}