Emre ERG\u00dcL<\/strong><\/p>\n Moskova\u2019n\u0131n 24 \u015eubat 2022\u2019de ba\u015flatt\u0131\u011f\u0131 Ukrayna Sava\u015f\u0131 ve sonras\u0131nda Bat\u0131\u2019n\u0131n ba\u015flatt\u0131\u011f\u0131 yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar, Rus ekonomisinde \u00e7anlar\u0131n \u00e7almas\u0131na neden oldu.<\/p>\n ABD dolar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 son 1 y\u0131l i\u00e7inde y\u00fczde 37.74 de\u011fer kaybeden Rus rublesi, bu ay\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda da ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda 16 ay\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine geriledi. Insider dergisi yazar\u0131 Natalie Musumeci\u2019ye g\u00f6re, rublenin de\u011ferinin \u00e7ak\u0131lmas\u0131 y\u00fcz\u00fcnden Ruslar yiyecek, di\u015f macunu ve sabun gibi temel ihtiya\u00e7 \u00fcr\u00fcnlerinin al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 k\u0131smaya ba\u015flad\u0131.<\/p>\n Bu \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131m\u0131n ard\u0131nda Romir adl\u0131 Rus ara\u015ft\u0131rma \u015firketinin 16 A\u011fustos\u2019ta yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir anket var. Anket sonucu \u015f\u00f6yle: \u201cHalk\u0131n y\u00fczde 19\u2019u temmuzda g\u0131da ve temel ihtiya\u00e7 \u00fcr\u00fcnlerinde tasarrufa gittiklerini dile getirdi. Nereseyse her 10 ki\u015fiden 2\u2019si. Haziran ay\u0131nda bu oran y\u00fczde 16\u2019yd\u0131. 1 ay i\u00e7inde y\u00fczde 3 art\u0131\u015f var.\u201d<\/p>\n Romir\u2019in \u00fcst y\u00f6neticisi Ksenia Paizanskaya da Musumeci\u2019nin \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 do\u011fruluyor: \u201cMevcut ekonomik durum ve artan fiyatlar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda Ruslar para biriktirmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. Ruslar \u00fcr\u00fcnleri daha uygun fiyatlarla alabilecekleri alternatifler ar\u0131yor.\u201d Aktion Management taraf\u0131ndan y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fclen bir ba\u015fka ankette de i\u015fletmelerin yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 44’\u00fc rubledeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn “i\u015flerine ciddi zarar” verdi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n Rus gazetesi The Bell de Rusya Merkez Bankas\u0131’n\u0131n rublenin h\u0131zl\u0131 deval\u00fcasyonunu engellemek i\u00e7in ay\u0131n ba\u015flar\u0131nda faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 350 baz puan art\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131n, resesyon riskini 6’dan 21\u2019e \u00e7\u0131karabilece\u011fini yazd\u0131: \u201c\u0130kinci \u00e7eyrekte reel harcanabilir gelirler (enflasyona g\u00f6re d\u00fczeltilmi\u015f) ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 5.3 y\u00fckseldi. Maa\u015flar y\u00fczde 13.3 artt\u0131. Rusya, 15 y\u0131ld\u0131r may\u0131s ay\u0131ndaki maa\u015f art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na denk bir \u015fey g\u00f6rmedi.\u201d Eski Rusya Maliye Bakan\u0131 Mikhail Zadornov, rubledeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc Kremlin\u2019in Hindistan\u2019da s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131p kalan rupi sto\u011funa ba\u011flad\u0131.<\/p>\n RBC adl\u0131 Rus dergisine yazd\u0131\u011f\u0131 makalede, \u201cRuble seviyeleri g\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcz ortam\u0131nda organik olarak kendilerini yeniden y\u00f6nlendiremez\u201d diye yazan \u00fcnl\u00fc ekonomist, Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n d\u00f6viz kuru piyasalar\u0131na m\u00fcdahale etmesi \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu: \u201cRublenin \u015fu anki dolar ba\u015f\u0131na 95 seviyesi k\u0131smen Rusya’n\u0131n ihracat yoluyla kazand\u0131\u011f\u0131 rupileri kendi para birimine \u00e7evirememesinin ve rupilerin zor durumda kalmas\u0131n\u0131n bir sonucu.<\/p>\n Hindistan’da sat\u0131n alacak hi\u00e7bir \u015feyimiz yok, ancak bu rupileri iade edemeyiz, \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc rupi \u00e7evrilemez bir para birimi. Rusya, Hindistan’a 30 milyar dolar de\u011ferinde petrolle ilgili \u00fcr\u00fcn g\u00f6nderdi. 6 ila 7 milyar dolar de\u011ferinde \u00fcr\u00fcn ithal etti\u011fini tahmin ediyoruz.\u201d Zadornov, Rusya’n\u0131n te\u015fvikten vazge\u00e7mesi ve Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n para politikas\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131 halinde rublenin dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda 85’e d\u00f6nebilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n Zadornov’un yaz\u0131s\u0131 dikkatleri \u00e7ekti, Rusya Enerji Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 hemen rupilerin rubleyi zay\u0131flatt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yalanlad\u0131. Moskova daha \u00f6nce Rusya’n\u0131n Hint bankalar\u0131nda milyarlarca rupi biriktirdi\u011fini kabul etmi\u015fti. (Not: Rusya, \u00f6demelerin Rusya’da en \u00e7ok kullan\u0131lan d\u00f6viz haline gelen \u00c7in yuan\u0131 cinsinden yap\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 tercih ediyor.)<\/p>\n Rusya’n\u0131n Avrupa’ya boru hatt\u0131yla do\u011falgaz ihracat\u0131 y\u00fczde 5.9 artt\u0131<\/strong><\/p>\n Rus enerji devi Gazprom’un Avrupa’ya boru hatt\u0131 \u00fczerinden do\u011falgaz ihracat\u0131 a\u011fustos ay\u0131nda temmuza g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 5.9 artarak, bu y\u0131lki en y\u00fcksek ayl\u0131k miktara ula\u015ft\u0131. A\u011fustostaki ortalama g\u00fcnl\u00fck do\u011falgaz ihracat\u0131 temmuzdaki 86.6 milyon metrek\u00fcpten (mcm) 91.7 milyon metrek\u00fcpe (mcm) y\u00fckseldi. Rusya ile Ukrayna s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131ndaki Sudzha \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm noktas\u0131 ve Karadeniz’den ge\u00e7en T\u00fcrkAk\u0131m boru hatt\u0131, Rus do\u011falgaz\u0131n\u0131n Avrupa’ya ta\u015f\u0131nmas\u0131 i\u00e7in kullan\u0131lan tek g\u00fczerg\u00e2h.<\/p>\n AB \u00fclkeleri, Rusya’dan s\u0131v\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f do\u011falgaz (LNG) ithalat\u0131n\u0131 Ukrayna’daki sava\u015f\u0131n \u00f6ncesine k\u0131yasla artt\u0131rd\u0131. Gazprom’un boru hatlar\u0131 \u00fczerinden AB’ye sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 do\u011falgaz miktar\u0131 temmuzda 2.68 milyar metrek\u00fcpken, a\u011fustosta yakla\u015f\u0131k 2.84 milyar metrek\u00fcpe (bcm) ula\u015ft\u0131. Bunun yakla\u015f\u0131k 1.54 milyar metrek\u00fcp\u00fc ya da g\u00fcnl\u00fck 49.6 milyon metrek\u00fcp\u00fc T\u00fcrkAk\u0131m \u00fczerinden g\u00f6nderildi.<\/p>\n \u201c\u0130hracat geliri 300 milyar dolar azald\u0131, yeni \u00f6nlemler olabilir\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n Rus gazeteci Mihail Sergeyev: \u201cRusya’n\u0131n d\u00f6viz cinsinden ihracat kazanc\u0131 neredeyse 300 milyar dolar d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc ve bu b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fckteki bir a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131, Rus ihracat\u00e7\u0131 \u015firketleriyle (piyasaya d\u00f6viz satmalar\u0131 i\u00e7in) tek seferlik anla\u015fmalarla kapatmak zor.<\/p>\n Bu nedenle, \u00e7e\u015fitli iktisat\u00e7\u0131lar sistemik finansal \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcmlere ge\u00e7meyi \u00f6nermekte: D\u00f6viz \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n yasaklanmas\u0131ndan d\u00f6viz ticaretinin kald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131na ve Rusya Federasyonu’nda ‘dost’ para birimleri i\u00e7in bir takas merkezinin olu\u015fturulmas\u0131na kadar. Merkez Bankas\u0131’na g\u00f6re bu y\u0131l Rusya Federasyonu’ndan yap\u0131lan ihracat yakla\u015f\u0131k % 33 oran\u0131nda azald\u0131.<\/p>\n Ayn\u0131 zamanda, mevcut ihracat\u0131n % 40’\u0131ndan fazlas\u0131 bug\u00fcn d\u00f6vizle de\u011fil, ruble ya da kovertibilitesi zor di\u011fer para birimleriyle \u00f6deniyor. Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l Rusya Federasyonu’nun ihracat\u0131n\u0131n 590 milyar dolar\u0131 a\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 hat\u0131rlarsak, 2023 y\u0131l\u0131 sonuna kadar d\u00f6viz cinsinden mevcut ihracat kazanc\u0131n\u0131n neredeyse 300 milyar.<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/i.dunya.com\/storage\/files\/images\/2023\/08\/31\/1-9yYQ.jpg\")
<\/p>\n