{"id":2785,"date":"2023-08-30T14:56:02","date_gmt":"2023-08-30T11:56:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/egemhabertv.com\/?p=2785"},"modified":"2023-08-30T14:56:02","modified_gmt":"2023-08-30T11:56:02","slug":"fed-faiz-artirimina-mola-verecek-mi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/egemhabertv.com\/?p=2785","title":{"rendered":"Fed faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na \u2018mola\u2019 verecek mi?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> [ad_1]<br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<p>ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 faiz karar\u0131 i\u00e7in piyasalar\u0131n bekleyi\u015fi devam ediyor.<\/p>\n<p>Piyasalar gelecek ayki Federal A\u00e7\u0131k Piyasa Komitesi (FOMC) toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131, kas\u0131mda faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na ili\u015fkin ikinci bir tahmin lehine duraklat\u0131lm\u0131\u015f bir &#8216;ayn\u0131 zamanda ko\u015fulan&#8217; toplant\u0131 olarak g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Ancak gelecek ay, s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn sonunu nihayet a\u00e7man\u0131n anahtar\u0131n\u0131 elinde tutabilir.<\/p>\n<p>Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Jerome Powell, y\u0131ll\u0131k Jackson Hole sempozyumunda merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n enflasyon kar\u015f\u0131t\u0131 taahh\u00fcd\u00fcn\u00fc yeniden ifade ederken netti. \u00d6nemli bir yeni politika de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi olmadan, elindeki i\u015fle ilgili inat\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 nihayet hedefine ula\u015fm\u0131\u015f gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyordu.<\/p>\n<p>ABD ekonomisinin temmuz ay\u0131nda yeniden ivme kazanmas\u0131 ve yeni y\u00fcksek faiz rejiminin uzun vadeli s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilirli\u011finin yeniden de\u011ferlendirilmesini zorunlu k\u0131lan birka\u00e7 haftal\u0131k gergin bir yeniden fiyatland\u0131rman\u0131n ard\u0131ndan, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar nihayet politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n haziran ay\u0131ndan bu yana s\u00f6ylediklerine kat\u0131l\u0131yor gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Bir faiz art\u0131\u015f daha gelecek.<\/p>\n<p>Para piyasalar\u0131ndaki fiyatlamalarda Fed&#8217;in 20 Eyl\u00fcl&#8217;deki toplant\u0131da y\u00fczde 82 ihtimalle politika faizine dokunmayaca\u011f\u0131 tahmin edilirken, tahvil piyasalar\u0131nda sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7 kaybetti\u011fi g\u00f6ze \u00e7arp\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<h2><strong>Kas\u0131mda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisi y\u00fckseldi<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>Mart ay\u0131 ba\u015f\u0131ndaki Silicon Valley Bank\u2019\u0131n iflas\u0131 ile tavan yapan b\u00f6lgesel banka krizinden bu yana ilk kez vadeli i\u015flem piyasalar\u0131 bu hafta k\u0131sa bir s\u00fcreli\u011fine hareket ederek 1 Kas\u0131m Fed toplant\u0131s\u0131na kadar politika faizinin %5,50-5,75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na y\u00fckselme ihtimalinin %60&#8217;a kadar \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi.<\/p>\n<p>ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 yetkilileri ilkbahar\u0131n t\u00fcm piyasa \u015f\u00fcpheleri aras\u0131nda <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ekonomim.com\/finans\/faiz\" target=\"_blank\" title=\"Faiz\" rel=\"noopener\">faiz<\/a> medyan y\u0131lsonu tahminini hi\u00e7 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmedi. \u00d6zellikle mart ay\u0131nda kriz ortaya \u00e7\u0131karken yar\u0131m puan art\u0131rarak %5,6&#8217;ya y\u00fckseltti. Daha \u00fcrkek olan vadeli politika faizi yerine bunu takip etmek, sonraki aylar\u0131n nas\u0131l sonu\u00e7lanaca\u011f\u0131 ve tahvil ve hisse senetlerindeki yaz durgunlu\u011fu i\u00e7in daha iyi bir rehber olabilirdi.<\/p>\n<p>Ancak yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, Fed&#8217;in zaten bitip bitmedi\u011fine karar vermeden \u00f6nce birka\u00e7 ay daha gelen ekonomik raporlar\u0131 g\u00f6rmek isteyece\u011fini varsayd\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan, vadeli i\u015flemler \u015fimdi herhangi bir ek hamlenin 1 Kas\u0131m&#8217;da gelece\u011fini ve 20 Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n Fed&#8217;in daha fazla veri toplamak i\u00e7in duraklayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 varsay\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<h2><strong>Tesad\u00fcf m\u00fc tasarland\u0131 m\u0131?<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>Peki gelinen s\u00fcre\u00e7te Fed adeta bir kahin gibi piyasay\u0131 avucunun i\u00e7ine mi ald\u0131? Yoksa sadece tahmin konusunda temelde \u015fansl\u0131 m\u0131?<\/p>\n<p>Fed&#8217;in \u00fc\u00e7 ayl\u0131k g\u00fcncellemelerindeki &#8216;nokta grafi\u011fi&#8217; faiz oran\u0131 tahminlerinin da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131na dayal\u0131 bir &#8216;anla\u015fmazl\u0131k endeksi&#8217; geli\u015ftiren ara\u015ft\u0131rmac\u0131lar, cari y\u0131l\u0131n \u00f6tesinde daha geni\u015f bir g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f yelpazesi oldu\u011funu, ancak bir ve iki y\u0131ll\u0131k ufuklarda a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n<p>Fed&#8217;in herkesi g\u00fcvenli ve mutlu bir yere y\u00f6nlendirip y\u00f6nlendirmedi\u011fine gelince, &#8216;yumu\u015fak ini\u015f&#8217; konusunda \u015f\u00fcphecilerin say\u0131s\u0131 er ge\u00e7en g\u00fcn art\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>JPMorgan ekonomistleri Bruce Kasman ve Joseph Lupton bu hafta yapt\u0131klar\u0131 derinlemesine incelemede m\u00fc\u015fterilerine g\u00f6nderdikleri notta, &#8220;\u0130\u015f piyasalar\u0131 dinamiktir ve bu y\u0131l resesyondan ka\u00e7\u0131nmak tek ba\u015f\u0131na uzun bir geni\u015flemenin kap\u0131da oldu\u011funa dair g\u00fcveni art\u0131rmaz&#8221; diye yazd\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>ABD&#8217;nin bu ge\u00e7mi\u015f ba\u015far\u0131lar\u0131 taklit edebilmesi i\u00e7in, yava\u015flayan karlar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda i\u015fe al\u0131mlar\u0131n devam etmesi, Fed&#8217;in son art\u0131\u015ftan sonraki alt\u0131 ay i\u00e7inde gev\u015femeye haz\u0131r olmas\u0131 &#8211; ki bu art\u0131k pek olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyor &#8211; ve yeni bir arz y\u00f6nl\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fcme d\u00fcrt\u00fcs\u00fcne ihtiya\u00e7 duyuldu\u011fu sonucuna var\u0131yorlar.<\/p>\n<p>Fed&#8217;in bir sonraki toplant\u0131s\u0131 19-20 Eyl\u00fcl 2023 tarihinde yap\u0131lacak.<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>[ad_2]<br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ekonomim.com\/kuresel-ekonomi\/fed-faiz-artirimina-mola-verecek-mi-haberi-706334\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>[ad_1] ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 faiz karar\u0131 i\u00e7in piyasalar\u0131n bekleyi\u015fi devam ediyor. Piyasalar gelecek ayki Federal<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2786,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2785","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/egemhabertv.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2785","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/egemhabertv.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/egemhabertv.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/egemhabertv.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/egemhabertv.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2785"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/egemhabertv.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2785\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/egemhabertv.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/2786"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/egemhabertv.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2785"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/egemhabertv.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2785"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/egemhabertv.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2785"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}