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T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131, 250 baz puan beklentisine ra\u011fmen bunun \u00fc\u00e7 kat\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 sonras\u0131 dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda kazan\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 bir ara y\u00fczde 7’nin \u00fczerine kadar \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131.<\/p>\n
Ekonomi y\u00f6netimi y\u0131llard\u0131r s\u00fcren yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131m \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 tersine \u00e7evirmek i\u00e7in ise iki kritik ad\u0131m\u0131 daha \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki ay atmay\u0131 planl\u0131yor: Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda \u00f6nce uzun vadeli tahminleri ekonomik tahminleri i\u00e7eren orta vadeli program (OVP) a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ard\u0131ndan ise uluslararas\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri h\u0131z kazanacak.<\/p>\n
Yabanc\u0131lar, Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Recep Tayyip Erdo\u011fan’\u0131n se\u00e7im \u00f6ncesinde y\u00fckselen enflasyon kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek de dahil olmak \u00fczere al\u0131\u015f\u0131lm\u0131\u015f\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki politikalar sonras\u0131nda T\u00fcrkiye’yi son y\u0131llarda yat\u0131r\u0131m tercihleri aras\u0131na alm\u0131yordu.<\/p>\n
Uzun s\u00fcredir T\u00fcrkiye’ye \u015f\u00fcphe ile bakan ve T\u00fcrk varl\u0131klardan uzak duran yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar bug\u00fcnlerde ise ekonomi y\u00f6netiminin ortodoks politikalara d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f ad\u0131mlar\u0131ndan heyecan duyuyor. Be\u015f yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131, T\u00fcrkiye pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rmay\u0131 planlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 anlatt\u0131<\/p>\n
Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 Cevdet Y\u0131lmaz OVP’nin Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131n\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda a\u00e7\u0131klanmas\u0131yla belirsizliklerin azalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, “\u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclebilirli\u011fin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir ortama ge\u00e7i\u015f olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131” s\u00f6yledi. Y\u0131lmaz uluslararas\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131larla g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinin de OVP ard\u0131ndan h\u0131zlanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
OVP hem bu y\u0131l hem de \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131l i\u00e7in makro hedefleri, yap\u0131sal reformlar\u0131 ve tasarruf tedbirlerini bar\u0131nd\u0131racak.<\/p>\n
Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara ge\u00e7en hafta g\u00f6nderilen bir davetiyeye g\u00f6re ise Hazine ve Maliye Bakan\u0131 Mehmet \u015eim\u015fek yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara 19 Eyl\u00fcl’de New York’ta Goldman Sachs genel merkezinde g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fecek.<\/p>\n
Londra’da merkezli Abrdn’den Viktor Szabo, “Faiz art\u0131r\u0131m kararlar\u0131yla yapt\u0131klar\u0131 hatalar\u0131 d\u00fczeltiyorlarm\u0131\u015f gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor” dedi.<\/p>\n
New York Van Eck Geli\u015fen Piyasalar Hisse Stratejisi ekibinden Ola El-Shawarby ise T\u00fcrkiye’de ald\u0131klar\u0131 pozisyon i\u00e7in “genel tablo konusunda daha rahat olmaya ba\u015flad\u0131k” dedi.<\/p>\n
\u015eim\u015fek ise “T\u00fcrkiye her zaman yabanc\u0131lar\u0131n ilglenmesi gereken potansiteli \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck bir \u00fclke. Biz d\u00fcnya normlar\u0131na uygun, kurala dayal\u0131 politikalar g\u00fcdersek T\u00fcrkiye’ye kaynak ak\u0131\u015f\u0131nda herhangi bir sorun olmaz” demi\u015fti.<\/p>\n
\u015eim\u015fek New York’ta planlanan g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler sonras\u0131nda Fas’ta IMF toplant\u0131lar\u0131, son \u00e7eyrekte Londra yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 toplant\u0131s\u0131 planl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Y\u0131l bitmeden Japonya, Singapur ve Hong Kong gibi Asya finans merkezleri de hedefler \u015eim\u015fek’in hedefleri aras\u0131nda. ABD’deki yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 toplant\u0131s\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131nda Erdo\u011fan da Birle\u015fmi\u015f Milletler toplant\u0131s\u0131 i\u00e7in New York’ta olacak.<\/p>\n
TCMB’nin kendine ait d\u00f6viz rezervlerinin belirgin \u015fekilde eksiyle ge\u00e7mesiyle sonu\u00e7lanan politikalar sonras\u0131 yeniden se\u00e7ilen Erdo\u011fan i\u015fleri tersine \u00e7evirmek i\u00e7in \u015eim\u015fek’i ve eski Wall Street bankac\u0131s\u0131 Hafize Gaye Erkan’\u0131 ilk kad\u0131n ba\u015fkan olarak TCMB’ye atad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Daha \u00f6nce d\u00f6rt y\u0131lda d\u00f6rt TCMB ba\u015fkan\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftiren Erdo\u011fan 1,650 baz puanl\u0131k faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ard\u0131ndan ise \u00e7ok az yorum yapt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Los Angeles’taki varl\u0131k y\u00f6neticisi TCW’nin EM \u00fclke ara\u015ft\u0131rmalar\u0131 ba\u015fkan\u0131 Blaise Antin, “Uluslararas\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar \u00fczerinde kal\u0131c\u0131 etki i\u00e7in politika faizlerini daha da art\u0131rmak zorunda kalacaklar. Esas soru Erdo\u011fan’\u0131n (faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na) yola devam etmeleri i\u00e7in ye\u015fil \u0131\u015f\u0131k yak\u0131p yakmad\u0131\u011f\u0131” dedi.<\/p>\n
TCMB s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma kararlar\u0131n\u0131n gerekti\u011fi \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde devam edece\u011fini vurgularken JPMorgan politika faizinin y\u0131lsonunda y\u00fczde 35’e \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor.<\/p>\n
TCMB verilerine g\u00f6re yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar son iki ayda yabanc\u0131lar 2 milyar dolara yak\u0131n hisse senedi pozisyonu art\u0131rd\u0131. Ancak Hazine verilerine g\u00f6re 10 y\u0131l \u00f6nce TL cinsi i\u00e7 bor\u00e7 stokunun %25’ini finanse eden yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n bu piyasadaki g\u00fcncel pay\u0131 s\u0131f\u0131ra yak\u0131n.<\/p>\n
Hazine’nin TL cinsi i\u00e7 bor\u00e7 stoku b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc bu y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131 sonu itibar\u0131yla 2.6 trilyon TL yani yakla\u015f\u0131k 100 milyar dolar. Bu piyasan\u0131n tekrar eski oranlara y\u0131llar i\u00e7inde gelmesi 25 milyar dolarl\u0131k bir yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131 yerle\u015fik portf\u00f6y giri\u015fi potensiyeli anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>\n
Bankac\u0131lara g\u00f6re yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar bug\u00fcn hala TL cinsi Hazine tahvilini bir yat\u0131r\u0131m arac\u0131 olarak g\u00f6rmekten “\u00e7ok uzak”. Ancak rasyonel politikalarla \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki y\u0131l bunun de\u011fi\u015fme potansiyeli ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylenler de son d\u00f6nemde artm\u0131\u015f durumda.<\/p>\n
\u0130\u015f Portf\u00f6y Genel M\u00fcd\u00fcr Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 Nil\u00fcfer Sezgin, “Yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n T\u00fcrk varl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 portf\u00f6ylerine eklemeye ba\u015flamalar\u0131 i\u00e7in zemin her zamankinden daha m\u00fcsait” dedi.<\/p>\n
Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n da analistlerin ortak g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc yabanc\u0131 pay\u0131n\u0131n hisse tahvil gibi t\u00fcm piyasalarda artaca\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde. Bunun d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda da K\u00f6rfez, eurobond ihra\u00e7lar\u0131, ye\u015fil finansman gibi alanlarda potansiyel y\u00fcksek.<\/p>\n
Bunun ilk i\u015faretleri de se\u00e7im \u00f6ncesi 700 baz puandan 400 baz puan\u0131n alt\u0131na inen CDS’te ve eurobond getirilerindeki 100 baz puan civar\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Hisse senedi piyasalar\u0131 eurobond CDS \u00f6zellikle beklentilerin \u00fczerinde faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131yla yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n ilk y\u00f6neldi\u011fi alanlar oldu. Analistlere g\u00f6re K\u00f6rfez \u00fclkelerinden sa\u011flanan kaynak da yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 giri\u015fleri \u00f6ncesi T\u00fcrkiye’ye zaman kazand\u0131racak.<\/p>\n
Se\u00e7imlerin ard\u0131ndan ya\u015fanan de\u011fi\u015fim ile birlikte ekonomi y\u00f6netimi bug\u00fcne kadar 1,650 baz puanl\u0131k faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n yan\u0131nda; ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i enflasyon tahminleri, vergi art\u0131\u015flar\u0131, kredilerle i\u00e7 talebi so\u011futma ad\u0131mlar\u0131, 20 milyar dolar rezerv art\u0131\u015f\u0131, cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlay\u0131c\u0131 ad\u0131mlar att\u0131. Son ad\u0131m ise kur korumal\u0131 mevduat\u0131 azalmay\u0131 ama\u00e7layan ad\u0131mlar oldu.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n