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Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Powell’\u0131n bu hafta Jackson Hole Ekonomi<\/a> Politikas\u0131 Sempozyumu’nda yapaca\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamalarda Fed’in olas\u0131 para politikas\u0131 ad\u0131mlar\u0131na ili\u015fkin ipu\u00e7lar\u0131 beklenirken, s\u00f6z konusu a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n piyasalarda oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131rabilece\u011fi tahmin ediliyor.<\/p>\n K\u00fcresel piyasalarda gelinen s\u00fcre\u00e7te ABD hisse senetleri<\/a> i\u00e7in yukar\u0131 y\u00f6ne i\u015faret eden g\u00f6stergelerin daha n\u00f6tr bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcme kayarken hisse senetlerini tahvil getirilerindeki son art\u0131\u015f ve \u00c7in ekonomisine ili\u015fkin endi\u015felerden kaynaklanan t\u00fcrb\u00fclansa kar\u015f\u0131 savunmas\u0131z b\u0131rakt\u0131.<\/p>\n Baz\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar piyasan\u0131n ruh halini \u00f6l\u00e7mek i\u00e7in kar\u015f\u0131t g\u00f6stergeleri izliyor. A\u015f\u0131r\u0131 k\u00f6t\u00fcmserli\u011fin al\u0131m i\u00e7in iyi bir i\u015faret oldu\u011fu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcrken bunun tam tersi de ge\u00e7erlili\u011fini koruyor. Y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131nda, hisse senedi pozisyonu ve nakit tahsisi gibi \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fctler, 2022’deki sert sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n ve bu y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda resesyon beklentilerinin ard\u0131ndan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n karamsar g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc yans\u0131tan a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimi g\u00f6sterdi.<\/p>\n Ancak ABD\u2019de diren\u00e7li bir ekonomiye ve so\u011fuyan enflasyona dair i\u015faretler yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 kendine \u00e7ekti ve takip eden aylarda risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rarak S&P 500’\u00fcn bu y\u0131l yakla\u015f\u0131k %14 y\u00fckselmesini sa\u011flad\u0131. Baz\u0131lar\u0131na g\u00f6re art\u0131k kenarda daha fazla kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flamak i\u00e7in daha az nakit ve kazan\u0131lmas\u0131 gereken daha az \u015f\u00fcpheci yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 kald\u0131.<\/p>\n BofA Global Research stratejistleri bu hafta ba\u015f\u0131nda yay\u0131nlad\u0131klar\u0131 bir raporda, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f pozisyonunun 2023’\u00fcn ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda risk varl\u0131klar\u0131 i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir ters r\u00fczgar oldu\u011funu, ancak ikinci yar\u0131da durumun b\u00f6yle olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yazd\u0131.<\/p>\n S&P 500, temmuz sonundaki g\u00fcn i\u00e7i en y\u00fcksek seviyesinden %5’ten fazla gerilerken, g\u00f6sterge niteli\u011findeki 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD Hazine tahvillerinin getirisi per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc ekim ay\u0131ndan bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyesine ula\u015ft\u0131. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n enflasyona g\u00f6re ayarland\u0131ktan sonra Hazine tahvillerinden ne kadar kazanmay\u0131 beklediklerini g\u00f6steren ABD reel getirileri 2009’dan bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyesine yakla\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n ABD h\u00fck\u00fcmeti taraf\u0131ndan desteklendikleri i\u00e7in neredeyse risksiz olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclen Hazine tahvillerindeki y\u00fcksek getiriler, \u00f6zellikle hisse senedi de\u011ferlemeleri tarihsel standartlara g\u00f6re y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fundan, hisse senetlerini yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in daha az cazip hale getirebilir.<\/p>\n Ayn\u0131 zamanda, \u00c7in’de derinle\u015fen emlak krizine ve bunun \u00fclkenin zay\u0131flayan ekonomisi \u00fczerindeki etkisine ili\u015fkin endi\u015feler, zor durumdaki geli\u015ftirici China Evergrande\u2019nin ABD\u2019de iflas korumas\u0131 i\u00e7in ba\u015fvurmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan piyasalarda volatilite artt\u0131.<\/p>\nS&P 500 bu y\u0131l %14 primli<\/strong><\/h2>\n
Hazine tahvili faizlerinde tarihi seviyeler<\/strong><\/h2>\n
Piyasalarda tahvil ve \u00c7in bask\u0131s\u0131<\/strong><\/h2>\n
\u201cEkim ay\u0131na kadar dalgal\u0131 seyir s\u00fcrecek\u201d<\/strong><\/h2>\n