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Hilal SARI<\/strong><\/p>\n Fed tutanaklar\u0131nda bankan\u0131n faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n devam edebilece\u011finin sinyalini vermesi, zaten 16 y\u0131l\u0131n zirvesine ko\u015fan bor\u00e7lanma maliyetlerinin, piyasalar\u0131n bekledi\u011finden daha da y\u00fckselebilece\u011fi endi\u015felerini k\u00f6r\u00fckl\u00fcyor. 2023\u2019\u00fcn neredeyse tamam\u0131nda faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131n bir noktada d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclmesi gerekece\u011fi beklentisiyle bask\u0131lanan 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil getirileri bask\u0131lan\u0131yordu ancak analistler bunun de\u011fi\u015fmekte oldu\u011funa dikkat \u00e7ekiyor. K\u00fcresel bor\u00e7lanma i\u00e7in bir g\u00f6sterge niteli\u011fi ta\u015f\u0131yan ve sadece ABD\u2019de de\u011fil, t\u00fcm d\u00fcnyada bor\u00e7lanma maliyetlerine y\u00f6n veren 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD Hazine tahvili getirisi sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc Fed tutanaklar\u0131 sonras\u0131 TS\u0130 15:18 itibariyle y\u00fczde 4,312 ile – Ekim 2022\u2019deki 4,33 zirvesi say\u0131lmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 takdirde – Ekim 2007\u2019den bu yana en y\u00fcksek d\u00fczeye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bu da bor\u00e7lanma maliyetlerinin 16 y\u0131l\u0131n zirvesine ko\u015ftu\u011fu anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>\n Sadece ABD\u2019de de\u011fil, k\u00fcresel ekonominin bir \u00e7ok noktas\u0131nda 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvillerde rekorlar g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Almanya 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k Hazine tahvilinde de getiri sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc y\u00fczde 2,714 ile 2011\u2019den bu yana en y\u00fcksek d\u00fczeye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. \u0130ngiltere\u2019de 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvilde getiri 2008\u2019den, Japonya\u2019da 10 2014\u2019ten, Fransa\u2019da 2011\u2019den bu yana en y\u00fcksek d\u00fczeyleri g\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/p>\n Fed\u2019in son toplant\u0131s\u0131na ili\u015fkin \u00f6nceki g\u00fcn yay\u0131nlanan tutanaklarda \u201cEnflasyonun Komite\u2019nin uzun vadeli hedefinin hala \u00fczerinde olmas\u0131 ve istihdam piyasas\u0131ndaki s\u0131k\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n devam ediyor olmas\u0131, kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n \u00e7o\u011funun enflasyonda yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riskler g\u00f6r\u00fcyor olmas\u0131, para politikalar\u0131n\u0131n daha da s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 gerektirebilir\u201d ifadeleri yer ald\u0131. Ancak tutanaklar Federal A\u00e7\u0131k Piyasa Komitesi\u2019nin (FOMC) 25-26 Temmuz\u2019da ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen toplant\u0131da faiz gerekip gerekmedi\u011fi konusunda tam bir fikir birli\u011finde olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da ortaya koydu. Baz\u0131 yetkililer faizleri \u00e7ok y\u00fckseltmenin ekonomi<\/a> \u00fczerinde yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 risklere dikkat \u00e7ekerken, “\u00e7o\u011fu” politika yap\u0131c\u0131 enflasyonla m\u00fccadeleye \u00f6ncelik vermeye devam etti. Tutanak metninde “Yetkililer enflasyonu %2 hedefine indirme taahh\u00fctlerine ba\u011fl\u0131 kald\u0131lar. \u00c7o\u011fu yetkili, para politikas\u0131n\u0131n daha fazla s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 gerektirebilecek, enflasyona y\u00f6nelik ciddi yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riskler g\u00f6rmeye devam etti” ifadeleri yer ald\u0131. Fed, 40 y\u0131l\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n bir s\u00fcrenin zirvesine \u00e7\u0131kan enflasyonla m\u00fccadele amac\u0131yla 2022 y\u0131l\u0131nda ba\u015flatt\u0131\u011f\u0131 parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcyle federal fon oranlar\u0131n\u0131 22 y\u0131l\u0131n en y\u00fcksek d\u00fczeyi olan y\u00fczde 5,25- 5,5 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na \u00e7\u0131karm\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n Terse d\u00f6nm\u00fc\u015f getiri e\u011frisi hisse yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 tedirgin ediyor<\/strong><\/p>\n Tahvildeki bu y\u00fckseli\u015f, ve getiri e\u011frisinin terse d\u00f6nm\u00fc\u015f haldeki seyrinin devam etmesi k\u00fcresel hisse piyasalar\u0131ndaki yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 tedirgin ediyor. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc ge\u00e7mi\u015fte 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvilin bu d\u00fczeylere geldi\u011fi her d\u00f6nemde finans<\/a> piyasalar\u0131nda istikrars\u0131zl\u0131klar ya\u015fand\u0131. Hisse piyasalar\u0131nda sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc tutanaklar sonras\u0131 sat\u0131\u015fl\u0131 bir seyir g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrken, te\u015fvik beklentisi olan \u015eanghay d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda t\u00fcm Asya piyasalar\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc ekside kapatt\u0131. Avrupa\u2019da da borsalar \u00f6\u011fleden sonraki i\u015flemlerde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f kaydetti. DAX, FTSE, CAC ve Stoxx 600\u2019de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler TS\u0130 16:13 itibariyle y\u00fczde 0,3\u2019\u00fc bulurken, Milano borsas\u0131 FTSE MIB\u2019de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00fczde 0,42\u2019yi g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Fed\u2019in k\u0131sa vadeli faiz oran\u0131n\u0131n (2 y\u0131ll\u0131k Hazine tahvillerindeki getirinin) hala 10 y\u0131ll\u0131klar\u0131n \u00fczerinde olmas\u0131 – getiri e\u011frisinin terse d\u00f6nmesi – yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n bor\u00e7 verirken daha y\u00fcksek k\u0131sa vadeli faiz oran\u0131 bekledi\u011fine i\u015faret eden bir durum. 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvilde getiri y\u00fczde 4,3 d\u00fczeylerinde seyrederken, ABD 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvilde getiri y\u00fczde 5 ile 10 y\u0131ll\u0131\u011f\u0131n \u00fczerinde. Uzun vadeli tahvil faizleri, gelecekteki belirsizlikler ve riskler nedeniyle, k\u0131sa vadeli tahvil faizlerinden genelde y\u00fcksek olur. Ancak uzun bir s\u00fcredir durumun b\u00f6yle olmamas\u0131 k\u00fcresel s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcnde ba\u015f\u0131 \u00e7eken Fed\u2019in enflasyonu kontrol etme yetkinli\u011fi konusunda da \u015f\u00fcpheler oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steren bir durum olarak de\u011ferlendiriliyor. Almanya, Fransa ve \u0130ngiltere\u2019de de durum benzer. \u0130ngiltere\u2019de 10 y\u0131ll\u0131kta getiri y\u00fczde 4,7 civar\u0131nda seyrederken, sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc 2 y\u0131ll\u0131kta getiri y\u00fczde 5,23 d\u00fczeylerindeydi. Almanya\u2019da Bund (10 y\u0131ll\u0131k) getirisi y\u00fczde 2,68 d\u00fczeylerindeyken, 2 y\u0131ll\u0131kta y\u00fczde 3 d\u00fczeyi 2023\u2019te birden fazla kez g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc.<\/p>\n ABD\u2019de mortgage faizi 2008 k\u00fcresel finansal krizinden bu yana en y\u00fcksek d\u00fczeye yakla\u015f\u0131yor. MarketWatch\u2019a konu\u015fan \u00fc\u00e7 uzman \u201cABD ekonomisinden g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc veriler gelmeye devam etti\u011fi ve Fed\u2019in g\u00f6sterge faiz<\/a> oran\u0131n\u0131 bir kez daha art\u0131rmas\u0131 durumunda (\u015fu anda y\u00fczde 7\u2019nin \u00fczerinde olan) mortgage faizlerinin B\u00fcy\u00fck Resesyon\u2019dan (k\u00fcresel finansal krizden) bu yana g\u00f6r\u00fclmemi\u015f olan y\u00fczde 8 d\u00fczeyine \u00e7\u0131kabilece\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. 30 y\u0131ll\u0131k sabit mortgage faizi sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc Kas\u0131m 2022\u2019den bu yana en y\u00fcksek d\u00fczey olan y\u00fczde 7,26 seviyesinde seyretti. ABD\u2019de konut sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn \u201cdurma noktas\u0131na\u201d geldi\u011fini s\u00f6yleyen Redfin CEO\u2019su Glenn Kelman, Barron\u2019s Live\u2019a verdi\u011fi deme\u00e7te \u201cSat\u0131\u015f hacimleri daha k\u00f6t\u00fc olamazd\u0131. \u015eu anda sadece ger\u00e7ekten ta\u015f\u0131nmak zorunda olan insanlar ta\u015f\u0131n\u0131yor\u201d diye konu\u015ftu.Ulusal Emlak\u00e7\u0131lar Birli\u011fi verilerine g\u00f6re ABD konut piyasas\u0131nda ikinci el konut sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 haziranda y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda y\u00fczde 3,3 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 4,16 milyona geriledi. Baz\u0131 al\u0131c\u0131lar iyi fiyata konut bulsa da ve konut fiyatlar\u0131 nispeten ayn\u0131 seyretse de, Kelman bu al\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek faizle konut almak zorunda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131na dikkat \u00e7ekerek \u201cSorun konut fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n eri\u015filebilir olmas\u0131nda ger\u00e7ek bir de\u011fi\u015fim ya\u015fanmam\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131 ve ev alanlar\u0131n as\u0131l ihtiyac\u0131 olan bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u201d diye konut\u015fu. Marketatch\u2019ta yer alan bir hesaplamaya g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 7,24 seviyesinde 30 y\u0131l sabit faizle 500 bin dolara al\u0131nan ve y\u00fczde 20\u2019si pe\u015finat verilen bir konut i\u00e7in ayl\u0131k 2.700 dolar mortgage taksiti \u00f6deniyor. E\u011fer faiz A\u011fustos 2022\u2019deki gibi y\u00fczde 5,25 d\u00fczeyinde olsayd\u0131, ayl\u0131k \u00f6deme yakla\u015f\u0131k 2.208 dolar olacakt\u0131. A\u011fustos 2021\u2019de ise y\u00fczde 2,99 d\u00fczeyinde bir faizle ayl\u0131k \u00f6deme 1.706 dolara denk gelecekti.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n\u00c7o\u011fu \u00fcye faizi \u00e7ok y\u00fckseltmekten ziyade enflasyondan korkuyor<\/h2>\n
Mortgage faizi konut sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fc vuruyor<\/span><\/h2>\n