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H\u0130LAL SARI<\/strong><\/p>\n \u00c7in Merkez Bankas\u0131 (PBOC) gayrimenkul sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde ya\u015fanan kriz ve yava\u015flayan i\u00e7 t\u00fcketim nedeniyle b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi destekleyen ad\u0131mlar\u0131na s\u00fcrpriz bir faiz indirimiyle devam etti ve beklenmedik ve iki \u00f6nemli g\u00f6sterge faiz oran\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc. Bir y\u0131ll\u0131k vadeli kredilerin faiz oran\u0131n\u0131 15 bps d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrerek y\u00fczde 2,5\u2019e indirdi. Bu 2022 y\u0131l\u0131ndan bu yana yap\u0131lan en b\u00fcy\u00fck faiz indirimi olurken, \u00c7in haziran ay\u0131nda da 10 bps faiz indirimine gitmi\u015fti. Ayr\u0131ca h\u00fck\u00fcmet art\u0131k gen\u00e7 i\u015fsizli\u011fi verisini a\u00e7\u0131klamayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 duyurarak, k\u00fcresel yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131, ekonomist ve \u015firketleri tedirgin etti. D\u00fcnyan\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck ikinci ekonomisinde gen\u00e7 i\u015fsizli\u011fi temmuz itibariyle y\u00fczde 23,1\u2019e ula\u015fm\u0131\u015f durumda. \u00c7in\u2019in man\u015fet i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 ise y\u00fczde 5,2\u2019den y\u00fczde 5,3\u2019e y\u00fckseldi.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n Yuan PBOC\u2019nin s\u00fcrpriz faiz indirim hamlesiyle dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda dokuz ay\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck d\u00fczeyine gerilerken, Reuters\u2019daki bir analizde yuan\u0131n g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde kamu bankalar\u0131n\u0131n yuan\u0131 desteklemek i\u00e7in dolar sat\u0131\u015f\u0131yla k\u0131sa bir s\u00fcre de olsa yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareket etti\u011fine dikkat \u00e7ekiliyor. Dolar\/yuan kuru sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc 9 ay\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesi olan 7,3212 d\u00fczeyine kadar y\u00fckseldi. Dolar yuan kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda son bir ayda y\u00fczde 1,9, son alt\u0131 ayda y\u00fczde 6,35, son 1 y\u0131lda ise y\u00fczde 8\u2019in \u00fczerinde y\u00fckselmi\u015f durumda. 20 y\u0131l\u0131n zirvelerinden hala \u00e7ok uzakla\u015fmam\u0131\u015f olan dolar endeksi ise pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc bir bu\u00e7uk ay\u0131n en y\u00fcksek d\u00fczeyini g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra, sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc yatay bir seyirle TS\u0130 16:52 itibariyle 102,9 d\u00fczeyinden i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. \u00c7in\u2019e ve k\u00fcresel ekonomiye ili\u015fkin endi\u015felerle g\u00fcvenli liman \u015fapkas\u0131n\u0131 tekrar takan dolar, uzmanlara g\u00f6re k\u0131sa vadede k\u00fcreseldeki zay\u0131fl\u0131ktan g\u00fc\u00e7 alarak y\u00fckselebilir.<\/p>\n Ancak analistler 15 bps\u2019lik faiz<\/a> indiriminin anlaml\u0131 bir fark yaratmayaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnde. \u00dclkenin gayrimenkul sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde de yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor olmas\u0131 ve b\u00fcy\u00fck in\u015faat \u015firketlerinin yurti\u00e7i tahvil \u00f6demelerini yapamayacak duruma gelmesi, sadece \u00c7in\u2019i de\u011fil, k\u00fcresel piyasalar\u0131 da olumsuz etkiliyor. Ayr\u0131ca \u00c7in\u2019in resmi y\u00fczde 5 b\u00fcy\u00fcme hedefi de ilave te\u015fvik \u00f6nlemleri al\u0131nmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 takdirde bir\u00e7ok ekonomiste g\u00f6re bu y\u0131l tutturulmas\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn bir hedef de de\u011fil. Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc Londra merkezli banka Barclays yurti\u00e7i konut pazar\u0131nda beklenenden daha h\u0131zl\u0131 bir k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015fme g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne dikkat \u00e7ekerek \u00c7in i\u00e7in 2023 b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini y\u00fczde 4,5\u2019e indirdi. PETROL fiyatlar\u0131 da \u00c7in\u2019in pandemi sonras\u0131 iyile\u015fmesinin beklenenden \u00e7ok daha uzun s\u00fcrebilece\u011fine y\u00f6nelik endi\u015felerle sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc tekrar a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7evirdi. Asl\u0131nda d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck petrol ithalat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131nda rafineri \u00fcretimi temmuzda \u00f6nceki y\u0131la g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 17,4 artm\u0131\u015ft\u0131 ve bu talebin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyretti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Buna ra\u011fmen, \u00c7in\u2019in faiz hamlesi ve ekonomik verileri sonras\u0131 sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc Brent 73 dolar cent d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 85,45 dolara kadar gerilerken, WTI varil fiyat\u0131 da y\u00fczde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 81,6 dolara kadar geriledi. Suudi Arabistan ve Rusya\u2019n\u0131n OPEC+ kapsam\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdikleri kesintiler son yedi haftad\u0131r petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nde destekliyordu. \u00c7in\u2019in sanayi \u00fcretimi ve perakende sat\u0131\u015f verileri ekonominin daha da yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ettikten sonra en b\u00fcy\u00fck petrol brokerlerinden PVM\u2019den John Evans \u015fu de\u011ferlendirmeyi yap\u0131yor: \u201cPetrol piyasalar\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ana unsuru \u00c7in ve 90 dolar ve \u00fczerine bir ralli hayal edenlerin hayallerini suya d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcyor\u201d.<\/p>\n BAKIR en b\u00fcy\u00fck t\u00fcketicisi \u00c7in\u2019den gelen sanayi \u00fcretimi ve yat\u0131r\u0131m verilerinin ard\u0131ndan alt\u0131 haftan\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck d\u00fczeyine geriledi. Londra Metal Borsas\u0131\u2019nda (LME) i\u015flem g\u00f6ren \u00fc\u00e7 ay vadeli bak\u0131r y\u00fczde 1,3 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 29 Haziran\u2019dan bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck d\u00fczey olan 8.163 dolar\/ton seviyesine geriledi. Bank of China International\u2019dan emtia<\/a> piyasalar\u0131 strateji direkt\u00f6r\u00fc Amelia Xiao Fu, \u201cBaz metaller \u00c7in\u2019de sanayi \u00fcretiminin yava\u015flamas\u0131ndan ve gayrimenkul yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften dolay\u0131 inat\u00e7\u0131 bask\u0131larla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya ve ya\u015fanan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler daha destekleyici politikalarla bir zeminde dengelenebilir\u201d de\u011ferlendirmesi yap\u0131yor.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n AL\u00dcM\u0130NYUM<\/strong> da PBOC\u2019nin faiz indirimine ra\u011fmen olumsuz g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn etkisiyle bir aydan uzun bir s\u00fcrenin en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne geriledi. LME \u00fc\u00e7 ay vadeli al\u00fcminyum kontrat\u0131n\u0131n fiyat\u0131 sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc y\u00fczde 0,4\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 7 Temmuz\u2019dan bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck d\u00fczey olan 2.136,5 dolar\/ton seviyesine geriledi.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n N\u0130KEL<\/strong> de b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye dayal\u0131 hareket eden bir metal ve LME\u2019de y\u00fczde 0,5 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle Temmuz 2022\u2019den bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck d\u00fczey olan 19.795 dolar\/tona d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n \u00c7\u0130NKO<\/strong> da 6 Haziran\u2019dan bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck d\u00fczey olan 2.305 dolar\/ton seviyesine geldi.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n KUR\u015eUN<\/strong> y\u00fczde 0,5 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 2.106 dolar\/tona gerilerken,\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n KALAY<\/strong> d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc nikel \u00fcreticisi Myanmar\u2019\u0131n madencilik yasa\u011f\u0131na ra\u011fmen y\u00fcksek stoklar ve zay\u0131f talebin etkisiyle y\u00fczde 2\u2019ye yak\u0131n bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 24.850 dolar<\/a>\/ton seviyesine geriledi.<\/p>\n \u00c7in ekonomisinin bo\u011fu\u015ftu\u011fu bir di\u011fer sorun ise demografik yap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n h\u0131zla ya\u015flan\u0131yor olmas\u0131 ve giderek daha az say\u0131da \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan\u0131n daha \u00e7ok say\u0131da emekliyi destekliyor olmas\u0131. \u00c7inli bas\u0131n organ\u0131 National Business Daily\u2019de sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc yay\u0131nlanan habere g\u00f6re \u00fclkenin do\u011fum oran\u0131n\u0131n (bir kad\u0131n\u0131n ya\u015fam\u0131 boyunca yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ortalama \u00e7ocuk say\u0131s\u0131) 2022 y\u0131l\u0131nda 1,09 gibi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir oranla tarihi dipte. \u00c7ocuk bak\u0131m maliyetlerinin T\u00fcrkiye gibi \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fu \u00c7in\u2019de bir\u00e7ok kad\u0131n bir \u00e7ocuk veya daha fazla \u00e7ocuk sahibi olmak i\u00e7in genelde kariyerlerine son vererek ev han\u0131m\u0131 oluyor. Uzun y\u0131llar tek \u00e7ocuk politikas\u0131 uygulayan ve bu toplum i\u00e7inde b\u00fcy\u00fck sorunlara da yol a\u00e7an \u00c7in, \u015fu anda do\u011fum oranlar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rmak i\u00e7in finansal te\u015fvikler sa\u011fl\u0131yor ve \u00e7ocuk bak\u0131m hizmetlerini iyile\u015ftiriyor. Pekin h\u0131zla ya\u015flanan n\u00fcfus konusunda endi\u015feli ve bu y\u0131l 60 y\u0131l aradan sonra \u00c7in\u2019in n\u00fcfusunun ilk kez d\u00fc\u015fmesi ihtimalinden de ka\u00e7\u0131nmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. N\u00fcfusun kalitesini art\u0131rmak i\u00e7in e\u011fitim, bilim ve teknoloji gibi alanlara odaklanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klayan h\u00fck\u00fcmet, gelecekteki ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi de destekleyebilecek bir \u201c\u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 do\u011fum oran\u0131\u201d d\u00fczeyini korumay\u0131 ama\u00e7l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\nYuan kamu bankalar\u0131n\u0131n dolar sat\u0131\u015f\u0131na ra\u011fmen dokuz ay\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne geriledi\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/h2>\n
\u201cBu y\u0131l y\u00fczde 5\u2019lik b\u00fcy\u00fcme hedefi te\u015fviksiz tutturulamaz\u201d<\/span><\/h3>\n
\u00c7\u0130N VER\u0130S\u0130 SONRASI BAKIR 6 HAFTANIN, N\u0130KEL SON 1 YILIN EN D\u00dc\u015e\u00dcK SEV\u0130YES\u0130NDE<\/span><\/h3>\n
Do\u011fum oran\u0131 da %1,09\u2019la tarihi dipte<\/span><\/h3>\n