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Birol BOZKURT<\/strong><\/p>\n Borsada halka a\u00e7\u0131k olan bankalar ilk 6 ayl\u0131k bilan\u00e7olar\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Bankalar\u0131n k\u00e2r\u0131 ortalama y\u00fczde 48\u2019i buldu. Bankalar\u0131n ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda 111 milyar 070 milyon TL olan net k\u00e2r\u0131 bu y\u0131l 154 milyar 348 milyon liraya y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n En y\u00fcksek k\u00e2r a\u00e7\u0131klayan banka 31,5 milyar TL ile \u0130\u015f Bankas\u0131 olurken, Onu 31 milyar TL k\u00e2r ile Akbank, 24 milyar 116 milyon TL net k\u00e2r ile Yap\u0131 Kredi takip etti. Vak\u0131fbank d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda b\u00fct\u00fcn bankalar\u0131n k\u00e2rlar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Bankalar\u0131n ikinci \u00e7eyrek bilan\u00e7olar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klanmadan \u00f6nce arac\u0131 kurumlar\u0131n bilan\u00e7olara dair yatay bir seyir beklentisi vard\u0131. Buna sebep olarak net faiz gelirlerindeki daralman\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ticari k\u00e2r ile dengelenmesi beklentisi g\u00f6steriliyordu.<\/p>\n Ancak bankalar t\u00fcm analizleri \u015fa\u015f\u0131rtarak beklentilerin \u00fczerinde bir k\u00e2r a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Konuyla ilgili g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015flerine ba\u015fvurdu\u011fumuz bankac\u0131l\u0131k analisti \u00f6zellikle Akbank, Albaraka T\u00fcrk, Garanti BBVA ve T\u00fcrkiye S\u0131nai Kalk\u0131nma Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (TSKB) bilan\u00e7olar\u0131nda beklentilerin \u00e7ok \u00fczerinde bir performans g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc, buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k kamu bankalar\u0131n\u0131n k\u00e2rlar\u0131nda bask\u0131lanma oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n Moody\u2019s\u2019in ortodoks politikalara vurgu yaparak T\u00fcrk bankalar i\u00e7in g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc negatiften dura\u011fana \u00e7evirmesini de de\u011ferlendiren analist, \u201cYeni ekonomi y\u00f6netiminin olumlu kar\u015f\u0131lanan s\u00fcre\u00e7 y\u00f6netiminin korunmas\u0131 halinde benzer pozitif haber ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n devam etmesini bekleriz\u201d dedi.<\/p>\n \u201cKamu bankalar\u0131n\u0131n net k\u00e2r\u0131 keskin d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u2019\u2019<\/strong><\/p>\n \u00a0Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz \u00e7eyrekte bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde Akbank, \u0130\u015f bankas\u0131, TSKB ve Garanti Bankas\u0131 liderli\u011finde beklentileri a\u015fan makul sonu\u00e7lar a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yleyen Gedik Yat\u0131r\u0131m Ara\u015ft\u0131rma M\u00fcd\u00fcr\u00fc Ali Kerim Akkoyunlu, \u201c2’nci \u00e7eyrekte TL\u2019deki de\u011fer kayb\u0131 kaynakl\u0131 bankalar\u0131n ticaret karlar\u0131nda FX al\u0131m sat\u0131m, hedge geliri vb. kaynakl\u0131 olduk\u00e7a g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n net k\u00e2rdaki marj kaynakl\u0131 k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerini s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yleyebiliriz. Kamu bankalar\u0131 taraf\u0131nda ise \u00f6zel bankalara k\u0131yasla marj kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131n olduk\u00e7a derin olmas\u0131 sebebiyle net k\u00e2rda keskin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler g\u00f6rd\u00fck.<\/p>\n Genel olarak bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fc ana faaliyetlerine bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda net faiz marjlar\u0131ndaki kay\u0131p hem T\u00dcFE\u2019ye endeksli tahvillerin g\u00f6receli muhafazakar de\u011ferlenmesi hem de TCMB d\u00fczenlemeleri kaynakl\u0131 \u00e7ekirdek marjlardaki kay\u0131plar sebebiyle derindi. Burada TCMB d\u00fczenlemelerinden yap\u0131s\u0131 gere\u011fi etkilenmeyen TSKB\u2019yi d\u0131\u015far\u0131da tutarsak t\u00fcm bankalarda TL kredi-mevduat makas\u0131n\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyrekteki gibi daralmaya devam etti\u011fini s\u00f6yleyebiliriz.<\/p>\n Bunun haricinde ana bankac\u0131l\u0131k faaliyetlerinden olan net \u00fccret komisyon gelirlerinde bu \u00e7eyrekte de g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc art\u0131\u015f ivmesini korunurken, operasyonel giderlerin ise ilk \u00e7eyrekteki tek seferlik deprem ba\u011f\u0131\u015f\u0131 etkisi sebebiyle bu \u00e7eyrekte yatay kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, y\u0131ll\u0131k olarak ise enflasyonun \u00fczerinde art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6sterdi\u011fini s\u00f6yleyebiliriz\u201d diye konu\u015ftu.<\/p>\n Moody\u2019s T\u00fcrk bankalar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc negatiften dura\u011fana \u00e7evirdi<\/strong><\/p>\n Ge\u00e7en hafta T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin ortodoks politikalara d\u00f6nmesi durumunda not art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olabilece\u011fi mesaj\u0131n\u0131 veren Moody\u2019s \u015fimdi de T\u00fcrk bankalar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc de\u011fi\u015ftirdi. Kurulu\u015ftan yap\u0131lan a\u00e7\u0131klamada T\u00fcrk bankac\u0131l\u0131k sistemi i\u00e7in g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn dura\u011fan olarak de\u011fi\u015ftirildi\u011fi belirtildi.<\/p>\n De\u011ferlendirmede T\u00fcrk bankalar\u0131 i\u00e7in faaliyet ortam\u0131n\u0131n, ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmede beklenen yava\u015flama ve devam eden y\u00fcksek enflasyon nedeniyle zorlu ve dalgal\u0131 olmaya devam etti\u011fini belirten Moody\u2019s h\u00fck\u00fcmetin May\u0131s 2023\u2019teki se\u00e7imlerin ard\u0131ndan ortodoks politikalara d\u00f6nme y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki ilk ad\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n, T\u00fcrk bankalar\u0131 i\u00e7in faaliyet ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131 destekledi\u011fini ifade etti.<\/p>\n Moody\u2019s\u2019in de\u011ferlendirmesine g\u00f6re \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek enflasyon, daha y\u00fcksek vergiler ve liran\u0131n de\u011ferinde daha fazla bozulma, t\u00fcketici harcamalar\u0131 \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 olu\u015fturacak ve bor\u00e7lular\u0131n geri \u00f6deme kapasitesini zay\u0131flatarak bankalar\u0131n varl\u0131k kalitesini bask\u0131 alt\u0131na alacak.<\/p>\n TL\u2019deki de\u011fer kayb\u0131 ve kredi hacmindeki geni\u015flemenin, 2022\u2019ye k\u0131yasla daha yava\u015f olsa da, g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm d\u00f6neminde sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn sermaye yeterlili\u011fini zorlayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ifade eden Moody\u2019s k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n 2022\u2019de kaydedilen zirvelere g\u00f6re normalle\u015fece\u011fini ama yine de g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmaya devam edece\u011fini belirtti. Moody\u2019s de\u011ferlendirmesinde bankalar\u0131n d\u0131\u015f fonlama pozisyonu ve dolarizasyon seviyelerinin iyile\u015fti\u011fini ve \u00f6zellikle yabanc\u0131 para olmak \u00fczere likiditenin yeterli kalmas\u0131n\u0131 beklediklerini ifade etti.<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n