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H\u0130LAL SARI<\/strong><\/p>\n Son y\u0131llardaki en sert d\u00fczeltmelerden birini COVID-19 pandemisinin ilk karantinalar\u0131nda ya\u015fayan k\u00fcresel hisse piyasalar\u0131, 2023\u2019\u00fcn ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda y\u00fczde 20\u2019ye yak\u0131n y\u00fckseli\u015f kaydetti ve baz\u0131 endeksler tarihi rekorlar\u0131na tekrar yakla\u015ft\u0131. Ancak baz\u0131 uzmanlara g\u00f6re a\u011fustos ay\u0131nda riskli bir varl\u0131k s\u0131n\u0131f\u0131 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclen hisseler ay\u0131 piyasas\u0131na girebilir.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n K\u00fcresel hisse piyasalar\u0131 i\u00e7in g\u00f6sterge niteli\u011findeki S&P 500 endeksi 2023\u2019\u00fcn ilk yedi ay\u0131nda yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 20 y\u00fckseldi. Bir\u00e7ok uzmana g\u00f6re de bu y\u00fckseli\u015f Fed\u2019in s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fman\u0131n sonuna gelmesiyle y\u0131l\u0131n geri kalan\u0131nda da devam edecek. Ancak ABD\u2019li ekonomi<\/a> yay\u0131n\u0131 Barrons\u2019daki analize g\u00f6re Wall Street\u2019te en b\u00fcy\u00fck bo\u011falar (piyasalarda y\u00fckseli\u015f bekleyen oyuncular) bile a\u011fustosta hisse piyasalar\u0131 konusunda biraz daha temkinli bir duru\u015f sergilemeye ba\u015flad\u0131. Barron\u2019s a konu\u015fan varl\u0131k dan\u0131\u015fmanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u015firketi Fundstrat\u2019tan Tom Lee ise, \u201cS&P 500 temmuz sonu itibariyle y\u00fczde 15\u2019in \u00fczerinde y\u00fckseldiyse, a\u011fustosta genelde ortalama y\u00fczde 1,4 d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015f\u201d diyerek yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n bu ay hisseye mesafeli durabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Lee, 10 A\u011fustos\u2019ta ABD\u2019den gelecek enflasyon verisinde pozitif bir s\u00fcrpriz de olabilece\u011fini ekliyor.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n Varl\u0131k y\u00f6netimi \u015firketi Sevens Report Research\u2019ten Tyler Richey de, MarketWatch\u2019ta yer alan habere g\u00f6re \u201cABD hisseleri yeni 2023 zirvelerini g\u00f6r\u00fcyor ancak muhtemelen resesyona ba\u011fl\u0131 bir ay\u0131 piyasas\u0131na girilecek\u201d uyar\u0131s\u0131 yapan uzmanlar aras\u0131nda. S&P 500 ve Dow Jones endeksleri pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc 2023\u2019\u00fcn yeni zirveleriyle kapanm\u0131\u015f, Dow Jones verilerine g\u00f6re tarihi rekorlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 4,5 alt\u0131nda kalm\u0131\u015flard\u0131.\u00a0\u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n Richey, pazartesi yay\u0131nlanan m\u00fc\u015fteri notunda \u201cRallinin ve hisselerdeki trendin hala y\u00fckseli\u015f e\u011filiminde oldu\u011funun fark\u0131nday\u0131z ancak \u00e7ok derin bir \u015fekilde tersine d\u00f6nm\u00fc\u015f getiri e\u011frisi nedeniyle \u2018sab\u0131rl\u0131 ay\u0131\u2019 piyasas\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc koruyoruz\u201d ifadelerini kullan\u0131yor. Tahvil getirilerinde 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k ve 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvillerin getiri e\u011frisinin bir \u00e7ok pazarda tersine d\u00f6nm\u00fc\u015f olmas\u0131 baz\u0131 uzmanlara g\u00f6re en \u00f6nemli i\u015faretlerden biri. ABD’nin 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k Hazine tahvil getirileri \u00e7ar\u015famba TS\u0130 16:43 itibariyle y\u00fczde 4,08’e gerilemi\u015fken, 2 y\u0131ll\u0131kta da getiri y\u00fczde 4,89\u2019a geriledi. 1980\u2019lerden bu yana g\u00f6r\u00fclmemi\u015f d\u00fczeylere y\u00fckselen hazine tahvili getirileri makas\u0131 Richey\u2019ye g\u00f6re \u201cFed\u2019in 18 aydan k\u0131sa bir s\u00fcre i\u00e7inde 500 bps faiz<\/a> art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 nedeniyle ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti ve bu durum Fed\u2019in ekonominin kald\u0131rabilece\u011finden daha y\u00fcksek bir faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n i\u015fareti.\u201d\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n 10 milyar dolar varl\u0131k y\u00f6neten Bel Air Investment Advisor ortaklar\u0131ndan David Sadkin ise \u201c\u015eu anda endi\u015fe etmek i\u00e7in en \u00f6nemli neden herkesin bo\u011fa piyasas\u0131 havas\u0131nda olmas\u0131\u201d diyor.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n Dolar<\/a> endeksi art\u0131\u015f, paran\u0131n riskten ka\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n da i\u015fareti<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n Dolar endeksindeki y\u00fckseli\u015f de yine hisse piyasalar\u0131 i\u00e7in olumsuz bir geli\u015fme olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Tyler Richey notunda \u201cHisselerde zirve g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fckten sonra dolarda bir g\u00fcvenli liman cazibesi art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olur. Ancak giderek g\u00fc\u00e7lenen bir dolar sermaye ak\u0131l\u015far\u0131n\u0131n riskten ka\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131k bir teyidi\u201d de\u011ferlendirmesi de yap\u0131yor. Richey 14 Temmuz\u2019da 100\u2019\u00fcn de alt\u0131na inen ancak \u00e7ar\u015famba itibariyle tekrar 102 d\u00fczeyinin \u00fczerine t\u0131rmanan dolar endeksinde may\u0131sta g\u00f6r\u00fclen 104,2 zirvesi k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa, yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareket alan\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n Ayr\u0131ca a\u011fustos ay\u0131nda hem Avrupa\u2019da hem de Wall Street\u2019te bir\u00e7ok y\u00f6neticinin uzun tatillere \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor olmas\u0131yla hisse piyasalar\u0131nda hacimler de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor. Bu nedenle \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda bir konsolidasyon bekleyen uzmanlar da var. Navellier Calculated Investing\u2019\u2019ten ba\u015f yat\u0131r\u0131m stratejisti Loui Navellier de bu isimlerden biri.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n \u201cRalli devam eder\u201d diyen de \u00e7ok<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n Parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fman\u0131n sonuna gelinmesiyle rallinin devam edece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6ren kurulu\u015flar\u0131n say\u0131s\u0131 da az de\u011fil. Citigroup 4,576\u2019dan kapan\u0131\u015f yapan S&P 500 endeksinin 2024 ortas\u0131 itibariyle 5.000\u2019i g\u00f6rmesini bekliyor.<\/p>\n