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Nurdo\u011fan A. ERG\u00dcN<\/strong><\/p>\n \u0130\u015f Bankas\u0131 Genel M\u00fcd\u00fcr\u00fc Hakan Aran, ekonomideki so\u011fuman\u0131n temmuz ay\u0131n\u00adda ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. T\u00fcrki\u00adye ekonomisne dair g\u00fcncel ge\u00adli\u015fmeleri ve \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclerini anla\u00adtan Aran, \u201cPolitika faizindeki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n ekonomiye olan etkile\u00adrini, reel sekt\u00f6re olan etkileri\u00adni ilk defa temmuz ay\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00admeye ba\u015flad\u0131k. 1-15 Haziran aras\u0131 yap\u0131lan al\u0131\u015fveri\u015flerle 1-15 Temmuz aras\u0131ndaki al\u0131\u015fveri\u015f\u00adlerde kredi kart\u0131 kullan\u0131m\u0131na bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fcz g\u00f6\u00adr\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n Bunu \u00f6nc\u00fc g\u00f6sterge olarak adland\u0131rabiliriz. Ayr\u0131ca sene ba\u015f\u0131ndaki toplam ticari ve bireysel kullan\u0131mla bug\u00fcnk\u00fc\u00adne bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131zda ocak ay\u0131n\u0131n bi\u00adle alt\u0131na inen bir kullan\u0131m var. Bunlar, temmuz ay\u0131nda vatan\u00adda\u015f\u0131n frene bast\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steri\u00adyor. Kemer \u015fu anda s\u0131k\u0131l\u0131yor. Bu durum politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar i\u00e7in tercih edilen bir konu ama arka planda ba\u015fka sorunlar\u0131n ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor\u201d dedi.<\/p>\n Daha \u00f6nceden uygulanan yanl\u0131\u015f ekonomi politikalar\u0131n\u0131n iki kaybedenini \u2018hazine ve ka\u00admu\u2019 ile \u2018sabit \u00fccretli vatanda\u015f\u2019 olarak g\u00f6steren Hakan Aran, \u201cDevlet kayb\u0131n\u0131 vergi paketiyle \u00e7\u0131karmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. Sabit ge\u00adlirli de kredi kart\u0131 ve bireysel kredi borcunu \u00f6demeyerek za\u00adrar\u0131 telafi etmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. O y\u00fczden \u015fu anda ilk sinyal, bi\u00adlan\u00e7olar\u0131m\u0131zdaki ilk g\u00f6sterge kredi kartlar\u0131ndaki ve bireysel krediler konusunda \u00f6denme\u00adyen bor\u00e7lar oldu.<\/p>\n Yak\u0131n izle\u00admedeki kredi kartlar\u0131n\u0131n pay\u0131 \u00e7ok y\u00fckseldi. Sorunlu kredile\u00adre d\u00fc\u015fenlerin pay\u0131 \u00e7ok y\u00fcksel\u00addi. Bir kredi kart\u0131n\u0131n borcu 10- 12 bin TL\u2019den 20-25 bin TL\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. 4 kredi kart\u0131 varsa ayl\u0131k bor\u00e7 80 ila 100 bin TL oldu. \u00d6n\u00adceden o bankadan bu bankaya \u00e7evrilerek giden bor\u00e7, faizler de art\u0131nca art\u0131k \u00e7evrilemez ol\u00addu\u201d dedi.<\/p>\n Toplam kredi kart\u0131 bor\u00e7lar\u0131\u00adn\u0131n 1.5 trilyon TL\u2019sinin birey\u00adsel, 500 milyar TL\u2019sinin tica\u00adri oldu\u011funu a\u00e7\u0131klayan Hakan Aran, \u015funlar\u0131 s\u00f6yledi: \u201c2 trilyon TL\u2019lik bir kredi kart\u0131 borcunu konu\u015fuyoruz. Kredilerin ter\u00adsine kredi kart\u0131 kullan\u0131m\u0131 T\u00fcr\u00adkiye\u2019de genellikle bireysel a\u011f\u0131r\u00adl\u0131kta. Bankalar\u0131n toplam kredi\u00adsinin 13.8 trilyon TL oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcrseniz toplam 2 tril\u00adyonluk bir kredi kart\u0131 bakiye\u00adsini konu\u015fuyoruz.<\/p>\n \u0130\u015fte devlet vergiyle kendini korurken va\u00adtanda\u015f da bu 2 trilyonluk ha\u00adva yast\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kullanacak. O y\u00fcz\u00adden bizim sorun olarak g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u00ad\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz alan buras\u0131. Vatanda\u015f\u0131n aya\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tekrar yorgan\u0131na g\u00f6\u00adre uzatabilece\u011fi, tekrar araba alman\u0131n, ev alman\u0131n hayal ol\u00admad\u0131\u011f\u0131, ay sonunu getirmenin bu kadar zor olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir kon\u00adjonkt\u00fcre gelirsek ondan sonra art\u0131k o nedir bu nedir konusu\u00adnu konu\u015faca\u011f\u0131z.\u201d<\/p>\n T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de kredilerin milli gelire oran\u0131n\u0131n tarihin en d\u00fc\u00ad\u015f\u00fck seviyesine indi\u011fini s\u00f6y\u00adleyen Aran, \u015funlar\u0131 s\u00f6yledi: \u201c2024\u2019\u00fcn ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde kre\u00addilerin milli gelire oran\u0131 y\u00fcz\u00adde 42.4 oldu. Bu 2020 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 72.3\u2019e \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Y\u00fczde 72.3\u2019ten y\u00fczde 42.4\u2019e geldi. Ya\u00adni kimseye kredi vermemi\u015fiz. Ama hani kredi geni\u015flemesin\u00adden, kredi b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinden bah\u00adsediyoruz ya. Milli gelir de b\u00fc\u00ady\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n Bu asl\u0131nda enflasyonun alt\u0131nda etkisini g\u00f6steriyor. Do\u00adlay\u0131s\u0131yla kredi b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi dedi\u00ad\u011fimiz reel bir kredi b\u00fcy\u00fcme\u00adsi olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in i\u015f insan\u0131n\u0131 da rahatlatm\u0131yor. Yani i\u015f insan\u0131\u00adn\u0131n o i\u015fletme sermayesi ihti\u00adyac\u0131n\u0131 da kar\u015f\u0131lam\u0131yor. Yani \u015fu anda piyasada kredi olarak d\u00f6nen rakamlar muhtemelen i\u015fletme sermayesi ihtiyac\u0131 ya\u00adni milli gelir olu\u015fturan i\u015fletme sermayesinin \u00e7ok az b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc\u00adn\u00fc kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor.\u201d<\/p>\n Y\u00fczde 42.4\u2019\u00fcn i\u00e7inde ticari kredi pay\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 32.4 oldu\u00ad\u011funu a\u00e7\u0131klayan Aran, bireysel kredilerin ise y\u00fczde 10 oldu\u00ad\u011funu aktard\u0131. Aran, \u201c2022\u2019de y\u00fczde 72.3 oldu\u011fu zaman bi\u00adreysel krediler y\u00fczde 16\u2019yd\u0131. Bug\u00fcn bireysel y\u00fczde 16\u2019dan y\u00fczde 10\u2019a indi. Bireysel 16 iken kredi kartlar\u0131n\u0131n milli ge\u00adlirde pay\u0131 2.9. \u015eu anda ise y\u00fcz\u00adde 4.5\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Kredilerin mil\u00adli gelirden pay\u0131 azal\u0131rken, tek d\u00fc\u015fmeyeni ve iki kat\u0131na \u00e7\u0131ka\u00adn\u0131 kredi kart\u0131. O y\u00fczden niye kredi kart\u0131yla yat\u0131p, kredi kar\u00adt\u0131yla kalk\u0131yoruz asl\u0131nda en b\u00fc\u00ady\u00fck g\u00f6stergesi bu\u201d ifadelerini kulland\u0131.<\/p>\n Hakan Aran, \u201cMerkez Ban\u00adkas\u0131 kasas\u0131n\u0131 doldurana kadar, yani d\u00f6viz rezervlerini artt\u0131\u00adrana kadar ve enflasyon y\u00fczde 10\u2019lu seviyelere gelene ka\u00addar bir denge noktas\u0131 olu\u015fma\u00adyaca\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in ne ihracat\u00e7\u0131 ne \u00fcre\u00adtici rahat y\u00fcz\u00fc g\u00f6rmeyecek\u201d dedi. Bu noktada ekonomi po\u00adlitikalar\u0131nda ge\u00e7mi\u015fte yap\u0131lan hatalara at\u0131fta bulunan Aran, \u201cBu problemi her seferinde ya\u00ad\u015famamak i\u00e7in, 5 y\u0131ll\u0131k bir plan yaparsak 5 sene sonra T\u00fcrki\u00adye rekabet\u00e7i bir yap\u0131ya gelebi\u00adlir\u201d dedi.<\/p>\n \u201cE\u011fer siz bir yanl\u0131\u015f yap\u00adt\u0131ysan\u0131z, yanl\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131zla y\u00fcz\u00adle\u015fmeniz gerekiyor. Ve biz ekonomide yanl\u0131\u015f bir politi\u00adka izledik. \u0130zledi\u011fimiz yan\u00adl\u0131\u015f politika, \u015fu andaki s\u0131k\u0131n\u00adt\u0131larla y\u00fczle\u015fmeden, onu ya\u00ad\u015famadan d\u00fczelmez\u201d diyen Aran, \u201cO yanl\u0131\u015f yap\u0131l\u0131rken ihracat\u00e7\u0131 \u00e7ok kazand\u0131.<\/p>\n Yan\u00adl\u0131\u015f yap\u0131l\u0131rken yat\u0131r\u0131m yapan i\u015f insan\u0131 \u00e7ok kazand\u0131. Yani \u00e7ok ciddi bir \u015fekilde TL ucuz bir \u015fekilde ihracat\u00e7\u0131ya, \u00fcreti\u00adciye, yat\u0131r\u0131m yapana verildi. Biz devletten y\u00fczde 12\u2019den menkul k\u0131ymet ald\u0131k, devle\u00adte bor\u00e7 verdik.<\/p>\n Bu kaynakla\u00adr\u0131 al\u0131p ne yapt\u0131lar? O d\u00f6nem\u00addeki yat\u0131r\u0131m f\u0131rsatlar\u0131n\u0131, bu ucuz rakam\u0131 kapasite art\u0131\u015f\u0131 i\u00e7in kulland\u0131lar\u201d diye devam etti. \u00c7\u00f6z\u00fcm olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in 2025 sonuna kadar s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131\u00adl\u0131 ge\u00e7ece\u011fini belirten Aran, \u201cFinans kesimi olarak biz de sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 kredi kulland\u0131ramaz\u00adsak ayn\u0131 \u015fekilde bu tablodan nasibimizi alaca\u011f\u0131z.<\/p>\n Hepimiz i\u00e7in d\u00fczl\u00fc\u011fe \u00e7\u0131kman\u0131n tek ko\u015fulu; hatay\u0131 yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z ilk noktaya geri d\u00f6nmek. Hatay\u0131 ilk yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z noktadaki ge\u00adri d\u00f6nd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz yer de art\u0131k T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in kabul edilebilir bir enflasyon. Bu yola girdik ama arka planda hep beraber s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131s\u0131\u00adn\u0131 ya\u015faya\u00adca\u00ad\u011f\u0131z\u201d vurgusunu yapt\u0131.<\/p>\n Reel sekt\u00f6rde sorun varken banka karl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131n\u0131n beklenemeyece\u011fini s\u00f6yleyen Hakan Aran, \u201cE\u011fer siz i\u00e7inde bulundu\u011funuz bu ko\u015fullarda ayn\u0131 \u015fekilde etkilenmiyorsan\u0131z zaten yanl\u0131\u015f bir \u015feyler yap\u0131yor\u00adsunuz demektir. O y\u00fczden ben, sorunlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n bu noktada di\u00ad\u011fer meslekta\u015flar\u0131m\u0131n tersine en kabul edilebilir sorunlar ol\u00addu\u011funu yani s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131n\u0131n herkes taraf\u0131ndan payla\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n iyi bir g\u00f6sterge oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc\u00adyorum. M\u00fc\u015fterimiz a\u00e7ken tok yatan konumunda olmak iste\u00admem. O y\u00fczden s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131y\u0131 ya\u015f\u0131\u00adyorsak beraber ya\u015f\u0131yoruz\u201d dedi.<\/p>\n Enflasyonun y\u00fczde 42 oldu\u00ad\u011fu ama Merkez Bankas\u0131 hede\u00adfinin 14-21 band\u0131nda oldu\u011fu bir 2025\u2019in ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 dile ge\u00adtiren Aran, \u201cMerkez Bankas\u0131, 42\u2019yi 14-21\u2019e nas\u0131l getirecek? Bu konuda ekonomiyi gev\u015fetemez. Kredi b\u00fcy\u00fcmelerindeki y\u00fczde 2 s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131 art\u0131ramaz. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla buradaki s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131k ve pahal\u0131\u00adl\u0131k asl\u0131nda y\u0131l boyu devam ede\u00adcek.<\/p>\n Y\u00fczde 45 enflasyon var\u00adken y\u00fczde 50 pahal\u0131 iken, y\u00fczde 25 enflasyon varken de y\u00fczde 30 pahal\u0131 olacak. Pahal\u0131l\u0131k de\u00advam edecek. O y\u00fczden 2025 y\u0131l boyunca rahatlama bekleyen \u2018nas\u0131l olsa biraz hafifler, ben de paraya eri\u015firim\u2019 diye d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u00adnenler, nefesini 2025 sonuna kadar tutmayanlar da muhte\u00admelen 2025 y\u0131l\u0131nda \u00e7ok zorluk ya\u015fayacaklar\u201d dedi.<\/p>\n \u00a0\u201cTemmuz, a\u011fustos, eyl\u00fcl aylar\u0131nda ayl\u0131k bazda enflasyon d\u00fc\u015fecek. Bu da 31 Aral\u0131k\u2019a geldi\u011fimizde 38-42 band\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011fini g\u00f6steren \u00f6nemli bir \u00f6nc\u00fc g\u00f6sterge. Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda okullar\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 gibi fakt\u00f6rlerle artabilir ama bu gidi\u015fat\u0131 bozmaz. Enflasyonun 42\u2019de bitece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcrsek politika faizinin ekim, kas\u0131m, aral\u0131k ay\u0131 toplant\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n birinde tek seferde veya par\u00e7a par\u00e7a 50\u2019den 45\u2019e indirilece\u011fini tahmin ediyorum.<\/p>\n Ekonomideki so\u011fuman\u0131n, kemer s\u0131kman\u0131n reel sekt\u00f6rde, vatanda\u015fta izd\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fc var. O nedenle tek ba\u015f\u0131na para politikas\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131 tutulmak istenir ama ekonomi y\u00f6netimi t\u00fcm y\u00f6nleriyle d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclmesi gerekti\u011fi i\u00e7in di\u011fer taraftan hedeflere zarar vermeyecek indirimler yap\u0131l\u0131r. 2025\u2019te enflasyon 20-21 band\u0131nda olacak. Bu durumda 45 olan politika faizinin bu sefer 25\u2019e kadar indirilme imk\u00e2n\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cHala daha krediye eri\u015fimin pahal\u0131 oldu\u011fu, krediye eri\u015fimin de\u011fil kredi kullanmama tercihinin oldu\u011fu ortamda nakit ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 y\u00f6netemeyen, do\u011fru fiyatlamay\u0131 yapamayan, yanl\u0131\u015f fiyatlamayla pazar d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda kalanlar\u0131n talep az oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in \u00e7abuk elenece\u011fi, mal\u0131n\u0131 satamayaca\u011f\u0131, o y\u00fczden de nakit ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00f6nd\u00fcremeyece\u011fi bir eyl\u00fcl-aral\u0131k ay\u0131 ya\u015fayaca\u011f\u0131z. Kanaatk\u00e2r fiyatlama yapanlar\u0131n i\u015fini d\u00f6nd\u00fcrece\u011fi ama \u2018enflasyon bu kadar, benim bu mal\u0131 yerine koyma rakam\u0131m bu, mal\u0131m\u0131n fiyat\u0131 budur\u2019 diyenlerin oyun d\u0131\u015f\u0131 kalaca\u011f\u0131 bir d\u00f6nem olabilir.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cBankadaki donuk alacak oranlar\u0131n\u0131n ticari taraf\u0131 da i\u00e7ine alacak \u015fekilde artaca\u011f\u0131 bir 2025 y\u0131l\u0131 g\u00f6rece\u011fiz. 2025\u2019te muhtemelen sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn donuk alacak oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 2.5\u2019e y\u00fckselecek. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla bat\u0131klar\u0131n artaca\u011f\u0131, asl\u0131nda bankac\u0131l\u0131kta art\u0131k kredi riskinin y\u00fckselece\u011fi 2025 y\u0131l\u0131 g\u00f6rece\u011fiz. \u015eu anda bizim bat\u0131k, donuk alacak oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 1.65. Kamuda hep daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnki y\u00fczde 1.35 civar\u0131nda.\u201d<\/p>\n \u00a0Ekonomideki s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131n 2025 sonuna kadar devam edece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc payla\u015fan Hakan Aran\u2019a g\u00f6re, 2026\u2019da s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lar son bulur, 2027 y\u0131l\u0131na ge\u00e7erken T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de pandemiden \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015f gibi olur.<\/p>\n \u201cBu s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma her \u015feyini bilerek, t\u00fcm kesimlere do\u011fru anlatarak, pani\u011fe kap\u0131lmadan, do\u011fru olan\u0131 yapma anlay\u0131\u015f\u0131yla yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 zaman arka planda yeni deneyler yapmadan ula\u015faca\u011f\u0131m\u0131z nokta\u201d yorumunu yapan Aran, \u201cBu resim bozulursa, arada herhangi bir yerde film koparsa biz ona da al\u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131z. 90\u2019l\u0131 y\u0131llar, 80\u2019li y\u0131llar\u0131n sonu, y\u00fczde 100\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde 3 haneli enflasyonlarla onlarca y\u0131l ya\u015fad\u0131k.<\/p>\n Paradan 6 s\u0131f\u0131r atmay\u0131 da biliyoruz. Bu politikan\u0131n arkas\u0131nda duramazsak, bu politikada sab\u0131r g\u00f6steremezsek, bunlar\u0131 y\u00f6netemezsek olacak olan \u015fey \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek bir enflasyonun kal\u0131c\u0131 hale gelmesi” yorumunu yapt\u0131.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n\u201c\u00d6denmeyen kredi kart\u0131 borcu 2 kat artt\u0131\u201d <\/strong><\/h3>\n
\u201c2 trilyon TL borcun 1.5 trilyon TL\u2019si bireysel\u201d <\/strong><\/h3>\n
\u201cKredilerin milli gelire oran\u0131 <\/strong>tarihin en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesinde\u201d <\/strong><\/h3>\n
\u201cBireysel krediler %16\u2019dan %10\u2019a d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u201d <\/strong><\/h3>\n
\u201cMB\u2019nin rezervi dolmadan <\/strong>ihracat\u00e7\u0131 rahat etmeyecek\u201d <\/strong><\/h3>\n
\u201cYanl\u0131\u015f politikalarla y\u00fczle\u015fmeden iyile\u015femeyiz\u201d <\/strong><\/h3>\n
\u201cHerkes zarar ederken <\/strong>bankalar k\u00e2r edemez\u201d <\/strong><\/h3>\n
\u201c2025\u2019te istihdam piyasas\u0131 daralacak\u201d <\/strong><\/h3>\n
\u201cPolitika faizi y\u00fczde 50\u2019den y\u00fczde 45\u2019e inecek\u201d<\/strong><\/h3>\n
\u201cYanl\u0131\u015f fiyatlama yapan pazar d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda kalacak\u201d<\/strong><\/h3>\n
\u00a0\u201c2025\u2019te kredi riski y\u00fckselecek\u201d<\/strong><\/h3>\n
\u00a0”2027\u2019de pandemiden \u00e7\u0131kar gibi olaca\u011f\u0131z\u201d<\/strong><\/h3>\n